The Maputo Declaration can lure the Northern voters

Since the last election in 2023, the number of people experiencing severe food insecurity has increased. This is evidenced by the poverty index data. Hunger has made people show more anger towards the Tinubu administration because they are tired and demoralised. One can attribute the problem to insecurity, banditry, terrorism, drought, and floods, among other factors. But there is no way one can excuse the nonchalance of the Tinubu administration. The problem is that little attention is paid to the existing and proposed government policies. These are policies that outline the choices, goals and actions to provide political, social, and economic direction to ensure food security in the country. But there is optimism as the 2027 elections approach. The long campaign season for the 2027 elections will surely make people more aware and give them time to identify bogus campaign proposals. After all, four of them have contested in the previous election. One thing is certain: Peter Obi will not be repeating the spurious solution in the agricultural sector. This is the same person who never misses the opportunity to mock the northern states for reliance on oil revenue. He used that rhetoric throughout the 2023 campaign season, including during his visit to Chatham House. During the last campaign season, at the Arewa Joint Committee conference in October 2022, Obi said he had a plan for commercial banks to invest in the Bank of Agriculture. It sounded out of touch and ill-informed for a candidate to think that private banks would operate a non-profit venture, choose to incur losses, or become a charity shop. Not even multilateral agencies, which advocate neo-liberal policies in the country, could make such a proposition. A quick search would have informed him of the corporate responsibilities of commercial banks. The conventional wisdom attributed to Friedman says the social responsibility of a business is to increase its profit. As a former Bank Chairman, the candidate knows that spending shareholders’ money on a social or agricultural project will be like flogging a dead horse. Those listening to him at Arewa House, then, are lifelong farmers, some are academics in agriculture, and some have even served in key positions in the agriculture ministry. They are aware of the sectoral challenges and can detect bogus proposals from miles away. It is common knowledge that agriculture is the sector to rely upon to revive the economy because it is the largest employer in the country. The benefit of agricultural revival will not be limited to Nigeria alone. The continent relies on Nigeria to return to its glory as one of the top 10 African countries, producing 75 per cent of Africa’s farm produce. Farmers, the majority of northern voters, will be more inclined to support campaign proposals that revive the agricultural sector to ensure immediate food security. Revisiting the Maputo Declaration is one proposition that can raise food security prospects and bring the northern electorate together. The Declaration is a comprehensive development policy adopted by African countries to close the gap between Africa and the rest of the world. It was agreed in 2002 under the Obasanjo/Atiku administration, within the pan-African action framework for agricultural development policy and strategy, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). The aim was to achieve an average annual agricultural productivity growth rate of at least six per cent and to set a target for public investment in agriculture of at least 10 per cent of national budgets. The 10 per cent share is high, and it was not achieved even under the Obasanjo/Atiku administration. The average budget share of the Ministry of Agriculture was four per cent, with a maximum of 6.4 per cent. Since then, huge efforts have been made under Yar’adua and Jonathan, with evidence of growth in the sector. However, since 2015, investment has waned. Between 2015 and 2023, the agricultural sector’s share averaged 1.45 per cent. Between 2023 and 2026, the share of the federal budget allocated to the Ministry of Agriculture remained relatively low, despite growing concerns about food security and agricultural productivity. The ministry received about 1.1 per cent of the total federal budget in 2023. It increased marginally to 1.3 per cent in 2024. A substantial rise occurred in 2025 when agriculture’s share reached approximately four per cent of the total expenditure. This was largely due to the inclusion of numerous constituency and capital projects within the ministry’s budget. However, the proposed 2026 allocation reduced the share to about 2.5 per cent, which demonstrates inconsistency and a lack of sustainability. The sector continues to receive limited fiscal priority relative to its importance for employment, food security, and economic diversification. One cannot deny that Nigeria is not food-secure. We can blame it on many factors, but if investments had been made as agreed under The Declaration, the situation would not be as bad as it is. International private firms such as PwC are advocating for greater government intervention by adopting the Maputo Declaration. We are in an election season, and choices must be made. Tinubu is committed to what he is doing to entice voters instead of addressing food security issues. As time passes by, it is evident that northern voters are not part of his plans to win the next election. Obi’s old proposals need to be reconfigured with proper research. As it stands, it is only Atiku who can revisit The Declaration, and northern voters will definitely be drooling at the prospect of such a proposal. But this is just an assumption.