Brazil’s Real Exchange Rate May Be Calming, Bradesco Says

IBOV

170,331

▼ 2.22%

IPSA

10,427

▲ 0.65%

IPC MEX

67,336

▼ 1.39%

MERVAL

3,191,065

▲ 0.85%

COLCAP

2,238.99

▼ 1.13%

BVL PERÚ

34,836.62

▲ 0.71%

USD/BRL

5.06

▼ 0.03%

USD/MXN

17.29

▼ 0.28%

USD/CLP

896.23

▲ 0.06%

USD/COP

3,563

▼ 0.69%

USD/PEN

3.41

▲ 0.02%

USD/ARS

1,438

▼ 0.10%

USD/UYU

40.36

▲ 1.76%

USD/PYG

6,037

▲ 1.68%

USD/BOB

6.86

▲ 1.82%

USD/DOP

57.93

▲ 0.40%

USD/CRC

456.90

▲ 3.01%

USD/GTQ

7.62

▲ 2.22%

USD/HNL

26.64

▲ 0.49%

USD/NIO

36.62

▲ 0.34%

USD/VES

558.97

▼ 0.13%

USD/PAB

1.00

▲ 2.20%

USD/BZD

2.00

▲ 1.64%

USD/JMD

156.87

▲ 0.72%

USD/TTD

6.66

▲ 0.15%

EUR/BRL

5.89

▲ 0.97%

BRENT

94.80

▼ 3.08%

WTI

92.47

▼ 3.70%

IRON ORE

161.91

— —

COPPER

6.53

▲ 0.75%

GOLD

4,509

▲ 1.63%

SILVER

74.08

▲ 0.82%

SOY

1,124

▼ 2.60%

CORN

422.75

▼ 2.03%

WHEAT

580.50

▼ 1.15%

COFFEE

247.80

▼ 2.09%

SUGAR

14.26

▲ 0.14%

ORANGE JUICE

164.55

▼ 2.29%

COTTON

74.36

▼ 3.09%

COCOA

3,939

▼ 3.27%

BEEF

241.70

▼ 2.00%

CATTLE

353.28

▲ 3.11%

LITHIUM

83.21

▼ 1.94%

PETR4

41.25

▼ 0.77%

VALE3

81.79

▼ 3.78%

ITUB4

38.72

▼ 2.12%

BBDC4

17.37

▼ 2.14%

ABEV3

16.07

▼ 2.31%

BBAS3

19.53

▼ 1.81%

B3SA3

15.52

▼ 4.67%

WEGE3

41.78

▼ 0.52%

PRIO3

62.59

▲ 0.98%

SUZB3

41.22

▲ 1.95%

RENT3

40.44

▼ 3.32%

AZZA3

17.38

▼ 8.48%

CSAN3

3.58

▼ 7.73%

RAIZ4

0.39

▲ 2.63%

PCAR3

1.54

▼ 1.91%

GMAT3

4.20

▼ 0.24%

PSSA3

48.16

▼ 1.19%

CVCB3

1.48

▼ 3.90%

POSI3

3.75

▼ 7.64%

SLCE3

14.98

▼ 2.03%

NATU3

9.80

▼ 0.61%

BRKM5

9.43

▼ 5.79%

RANI3

7.90

▲ 0.51%

CSNA3

6.68

▼ 6.31%

CMIN3

4.50

▼ 5.86%

USIM5

11.46

▼ 4.82%

GGBR4

24.13

▼ 2.11%

ENEV3

24.23

▼ 4.42%

NEOE3

33.80

— 0.00%

CPFE3

43.30

▼ 0.46%

CMIG4

10.86

▼ 1.27%

EQTL3

39.81

▲ 1.89%

LREN3

14.64

▼ 5.67%

VIVT3

33.75

▼ 0.15%

RAIL3

13.89

▼ 2.11%

KLABIN

16.76

▼ 0.89%

RAIA DROGASIL

17.51

▼ 3.26%

RDOR3

33.11

▼ 3.33%

HAPV3

11.22

▼ 8.26%

FLRY3

14.70

▼ 4.11%

SMTO3

17.30

▼ 1.14%

UGPA3

24.92

▼ 3.07%

VBBR3

29.48

▼ 2.16%

BBSE3

35.04

▼ 0.26%

BPAC11

50.71

▼ 4.77%

CURY3

29.45

▼ 6.00%

AERI3

2.31

▼ 1.28%

VIVARA

20.50

▼ 4.21%

COMPASS

25.79

▼ 2.68%

VAMOS

2.94

▼ 1.01%

SANB11

26.72

▼ 2.34%

ASAI3

8.79

▼ 2.87%

SBSP3

27.23

▼ 1.66%

WALMEX

51.44

▼ 1.40%

GMEXICO

208.36

▼ 2.65%

FEMSA

211.61

▼ 0.09%

CEMEX

22.33

▼ 0.53%

GFNORTE

179.77

▼ 0.51%

BIMBO

57.07

▼ 2.24%

TELEVISA

9.27

▲ 2.54%

AMX

21.93

▼ 1.22%

GAP

411.68

▼ 1.62%

ASUR

294.00

▼ 0.93%

OMA

217.15

▼ 1.14%

KOF

184.78

▼ 1.21%

GRUMA

293.02

▼ 0.48%

KIMBER

37.71

▼ 1.00%

SQM-B

70,051

▼ 1.34%

COPEC

6,200

▲ 1.64%

BSANTANDER

69.40

▲ 1.91%

FALABELLA

5,579

▲ 2.36%

ENELAM

76.50

▼ 0.35%

CENCOSUD

2,181

▲ 0.60%

CMPC

1,053

▲ 2.40%

BANCO CHILE

167.48

▲ 2.13%

LATAM AIR

22.41

▲ 0.54%

YPF

83,400

▲ 0.42%

GGAL

7,455

▲ 1.43%

PAMPA

5,115

— 0.00%

TXAR

685.50

▲ 1.18%

ALUAR

1,012

▼ 0.30%

TGS

9,285

▲ 0.87%

CEPU

2,286

▼ 1.00%

MIRGOR

16,950

▲ 0.15%

COME

48.31

▲ 0.83%

LOMA NEGRA

3,505

▲ 1.52%

BYMA

293.50

▲ 0.17%

TELECOM ARG

4,038

▼ 0.37%

ECOPETROL

15.35

▼ 1.48%

BANCOLOMBIA

72.51

▲ 0.36%

GRUPO AVAL

4.95

▼ 0.60%

CREDICORP

330.74

▲ 1.01%

SOUTHERN COPPER

192.10

▼ 2.28%

BUENAVENTURA

34.67

▲ 2.39%

MERCADOLIBRE

1,648

▲ 0.56%

NUBANK

12.03

▲ 3.35%

XP

15.74

▲ 0.87%

PAGSEGURO

8.82

▲ 0.51%

STONE

10.72

▲ 0.70%

GLOBANT

39.54

▼ 0.33%

TECNOGLASS

42.11

▼ 0.57%

GAP AIRPORT

237.85

▼ 1.19%

ASUR

294.00

▼ 0.93%

OMA AIRPORT

100.60

▼ 0.58%

AMX ADR

25.29

▼ 0.98%

FEMSA ADR

122.40

▲ 0.48%

CEMEX ADR

12.90

▼ 0.04%

PETROBRAS ADR

18.09

▼ 0.55%

VALE ADR

15.86

▼ 1.28%

ITAU ADR

7.69

▲ 1.25%

SANTANDER BR

5.36

▲ 1.04%

AMBEV ADR

3.13

▼ 0.48%

CSN

1.30

▼ 1.15%

GERDAU

4.77

▲ 0.42%

LATAM ADR

49.73

▲ 0.04%

BTC

63,391

▼ 0.97%

ETH

1,768

▼ 2.42%

SOL

69.31

▼ 3.22%

XRP

1.17

▼ 2.58%

BNB

602.72

▼ 2.80%

ADA

0.19

▼ 6.61%

DOGE

0.09

▼ 2.44%

AVAX

7.75

▼ 3.73%

LINK

8.04

▼ 3.54%

DOT

1.07

▼ 3.31%

LTC

46.23

▼ 1.94%

BCH

247.18

▲ 1.82%

TRX

0.33

▼ 0.66%

XLM

0.21

▼ 1.80%

HBAR

0.09

▲ 0.19%

NEAR

2.42

▼ 14.00%

ATOM

1.84

▼ 1.00%

AAVE

72.25

▼ 2.91%

SELIC

14.50%

—

EMBRAER

69.67

▼ 3.17%

EMBRAER ADR

56.47

▲ 2.30%

JBS

12.16

▲ 2.36%

JBS BDR

59.90

▼ 1.17%

MBRF3

15.78

▼ 0.44%

MBRFY

3.06

— 0.00%

INTER

5.76

▼ 0.78%

EGX

52,653

▲ 0.17%

USD/ZAR

16.30

▼ 0.15%

USD/NGN

1,358

▲ 0.06%

NIKKEI

67,471

▼ 1.36%

CSI300

4,905

▼ 0.69%

HSI

25,253

▼ 1.48%

NIFTY

23,417

▲ 0.05%

KOSPI

8,639

▼ 1.84%

JCI

5,840

▼ 1.70%

USD/JPY

159.99

▼ 0.01%

USD/CNY

6.7730

▲ 0.06%

DAX

24,945

▲ 0.60%

CAC

8,244

▲ 1.15%

FTSE

10,360

▲ 0.27%

MIB

50,174

▲ 0.27%

IBEX

18,276

▲ 0.55%

STOXX

624.45

▲ 0.52%

EUR/USD

1.1627

▲ 0.22%

GBP/USD

1.3436

▲ 0.11%

SPX

7,582

▲ 0.38%

DJI

51,577

▲ 1.76%

NDX

30,416

▼ 0.51%

RUT

2,930

▲ 1.27%

TSX

35,234

▲ 1.24%

VIX

15.46

▼ 3.74%

USD/CAD

1.3897

▲ 0.03%

US10Y

4.4650

▼ 0.58%

IBOV

170,331

▼ 2.22%

IPSA

10,427

▲ 0.65%

IPC MEX

67,336

▼ 1.39%

MERVAL

3,191,065

▲ 0.85%

COLCAP

2,238.99

▼ 1.13%

BVL PERÚ

34,836.62

▲ 0.71%

USD/BRL

5.06

▼ 0.03%

USD/MXN

17.29

▼ 0.28%

USD/CLP

896.23

▲ 0.06%

USD/COP

3,563

▼ 0.69%

USD/PEN

3.41

▲ 0.02%

USD/ARS

1,438

▼ 0.10%

USD/UYU

40.36

▲ 1.76%

USD/PYG

6,037

▲ 1.68%

USD/BOB

6.86

▲ 1.82%

USD/DOP

57.93

▲ 0.40%

USD/CRC

456.90

▲ 3.01%

USD/GTQ

7.62

▲ 2.22%

USD/HNL

26.64

▲ 0.49%

USD/NIO

36.62

▲ 0.34%

USD/VES

558.97

▼ 0.13%

USD/PAB

1.00

▲ 2.20%

USD/BZD

2.00

▲ 1.64%

USD/JMD

156.87

▲ 0.72%

USD/TTD

6.66

▲ 0.15%

EUR/BRL

5.89

▲ 0.97%

BRENT

94.80

▼ 3.08%

WTI

92.47

▼ 3.70%

IRON ORE

161.91

— —

COPPER

6.53

▲ 0.75%

GOLD

4,509

▲ 1.63%

SILVER

74.08

▲ 0.82%

SOY

1,124

▼ 2.60%

CORN

422.75

▼ 2.03%

WHEAT

580.50

▼ 1.15%

COFFEE

247.80

▼ 2.09%

SUGAR

14.26

▲ 0.14%

ORANGE JUICE

164.55

▼ 2.29%

COTTON

74.36

▼ 3.09%

COCOA

3,939

▼ 3.27%

BEEF

241.70

▼ 2.00%

CATTLE

353.28

▲ 3.11%

LITHIUM

83.21

▼ 1.94%

PETR4

41.25

▼ 0.77%

VALE3

81.79

▼ 3.78%

ITUB4

38.72

▼ 2.12%

BBDC4

17.37

▼ 2.14%

ABEV3

16.07

▼ 2.31%

BBAS3

19.53

▼ 1.81%

B3SA3

15.52

▼ 4.67%

WEGE3

41.78

▼ 0.52%

PRIO3

62.59

▲ 0.98%

SUZB3

41.22

▲ 1.95%

RENT3

40.44

▼ 3.32%

AZZA3

17.38

▼ 8.48%

CSAN3

3.58

▼ 7.73%

RAIZ4

0.39

▲ 2.63%

PCAR3

1.54

▼ 1.91%

GMAT3

4.20

▼ 0.24%

PSSA3

48.16

▼ 1.19%

CVCB3

1.48

▼ 3.90%

POSI3

3.75

▼ 7.64%

SLCE3

14.98

▼ 2.03%

NATU3

9.80

▼ 0.61%

BRKM5

9.43

▼ 5.79%

RANI3

7.90

▲ 0.51%

CSNA3

6.68

▼ 6.31%

CMIN3

4.50

▼ 5.86%

USIM5

11.46

▼ 4.82%

GGBR4

24.13

▼ 2.11%

ENEV3

24.23

▼ 4.42%

NEOE3

33.80

— 0.00%

CPFE3

43.30

▼ 0.46%

CMIG4

10.86

▼ 1.27%

EQTL3

39.81

▲ 1.89%

LREN3

14.64

▼ 5.67%

VIVT3

33.75

▼ 0.15%

RAIL3

13.89

▼ 2.11%

KLABIN

16.76

▼ 0.89%

RAIA DROGASIL

17.51

▼ 3.26%

RDOR3

33.11

▼ 3.33%

HAPV3

11.22

▼ 8.26%

FLRY3

14.70

▼ 4.11%

SMTO3

17.30

▼ 1.14%

UGPA3

24.92

▼ 3.07%

VBBR3

29.48

▼ 2.16%

BBSE3

35.04

▼ 0.26%

BPAC11

50.71

▼ 4.77%

CURY3

29.45

▼ 6.00%

AERI3

2.31

▼ 1.28%

VIVARA

20.50

▼ 4.21%

COMPASS

25.79

▼ 2.68%

VAMOS

2.94

▼ 1.01%

SANB11

26.72

▼ 2.34%

ASAI3

8.79

▼ 2.87%

SBSP3

27.23

▼ 1.66%

WALMEX

51.44

▼ 1.40%

GMEXICO

208.36

▼ 2.65%

FEMSA

211.61

▼ 0.09%

CEMEX

22.33

▼ 0.53%

GFNORTE

179.77

▼ 0.51%

BIMBO

57.07

▼ 2.24%

TELEVISA

9.27

▲ 2.54%

AMX

21.93

▼ 1.22%

GAP

411.68

▼ 1.62%

ASUR

294.00

▼ 0.93%

OMA

217.15

▼ 1.14%

KOF

184.78

▼ 1.21%

GRUMA

293.02

▼ 0.48%

KIMBER

37.71

▼ 1.00%

SQM-B

70,051

▼ 1.34%

COPEC

6,200

▲ 1.64%

BSANTANDER

69.40

▲ 1.91%

FALABELLA

5,579

▲ 2.36%

ENELAM

76.50

▼ 0.35%

CENCOSUD

2,181

▲ 0.60%

CMPC

1,053

▲ 2.40%

BANCO CHILE

167.48

▲ 2.13%

LATAM AIR

22.41

▲ 0.54%

YPF

83,400

▲ 0.42%

GGAL

7,455

▲ 1.43%

PAMPA

5,115

— 0.00%

TXAR

685.50

▲ 1.18%

ALUAR

1,012

▼ 0.30%

TGS

9,285

▲ 0.87%

CEPU

2,286

▼ 1.00%

MIRGOR

16,950

▲ 0.15%

COME

48.31

▲ 0.83%

LOMA NEGRA

3,505

▲ 1.52%

BYMA

293.50

▲ 0.17%

TELECOM ARG

4,038

▼ 0.37%

ECOPETROL

15.35

▼ 1.48%

BANCOLOMBIA

72.51

▲ 0.36%

GRUPO AVAL

4.95

▼ 0.60%

CREDICORP

330.74

▲ 1.01%

SOUTHERN COPPER

192.10

▼ 2.28%

BUENAVENTURA

34.67

▲ 2.39%

MERCADOLIBRE

1,648

▲ 0.56%

NUBANK

12.03

▲ 3.35%

XP

15.74

▲ 0.87%

PAGSEGURO

8.82

▲ 0.51%

STONE

10.72

▲ 0.70%

GLOBANT

39.54

▼ 0.33%

TECNOGLASS

42.11

▼ 0.57%

GAP AIRPORT

237.85

▼ 1.19%

ASUR

294.00

▼ 0.93%

OMA AIRPORT

100.60

▼ 0.58%

AMX ADR

25.29

▼ 0.98%

FEMSA ADR

122.40

▲ 0.48%

CEMEX ADR

12.90

▼ 0.04%

PETROBRAS ADR

18.09

▼ 0.55%

VALE ADR

15.86

▼ 1.28%

ITAU ADR

7.69

▲ 1.25%

SANTANDER BR

5.36

▲ 1.04%

AMBEV ADR

3.13

▼ 0.48%

CSN

1.30

▼ 1.15%

GERDAU

4.77

▲ 0.42%

LATAM ADR

49.73

▲ 0.04%

BTC

63,391

▼ 0.97%

ETH

1,768

▼ 2.42%

SOL

69.31

▼ 3.22%

XRP

1.17

▼ 2.58%

BNB

602.72

▼ 2.80%

ADA

0.19

▼ 6.61%

DOGE

0.09

▼ 2.44%

AVAX

7.75

▼ 3.73%

LINK

8.04

▼ 3.54%

DOT

1.07

▼ 3.31%

LTC

46.23

▼ 1.94%

BCH

247.18

▲ 1.82%

TRX

0.33

▼ 0.66%

XLM

0.21

▼ 1.80%

HBAR

0.09

▲ 0.19%

NEAR

2.42

▼ 14.00%

ATOM

1.84

▼ 1.00%

AAVE

72.25

▼ 2.91%

SELIC

14.50%

—

EMBRAER

69.67

▼ 3.17%

EMBRAER ADR

56.47

▲ 2.30%

JBS

12.16

▲ 2.36%

JBS BDR

59.90

▼ 1.17%

MBRF3

15.78

▼ 0.44%

MBRFY

3.06

— 0.00%

INTER

5.76

▼ 0.78%

EGX

52,653

▲ 0.17%

USD/ZAR

16.30

▼ 0.15%

USD/NGN

1,358

▲ 0.06%

NIKKEI

67,471

▼ 1.36%

CSI300

4,905

▼ 0.69%

HSI

25,253

▼ 1.48%

NIFTY

23,417

▲ 0.05%

KOSPI

8,639

▼ 1.84%

JCI

5,840

▼ 1.70%

USD/JPY

159.99

▼ 0.01%

USD/CNY

6.7730

▲ 0.06%

DAX

24,945

▲ 0.60%

CAC

8,244

▲ 1.15%

FTSE

10,360

▲ 0.27%

MIB

50,174

▲ 0.27%

IBEX

18,276

▲ 0.55%

STOXX

624.45

▲ 0.52%

EUR/USD

1.1627

▲ 0.22%

GBP/USD

1.3436

▲ 0.11%

SPX

7,582

▲ 0.38%

DJI

51,577

▲ 1.76%

NDX

30,416

▼ 0.51%

RUT

2,930

▲ 1.27%

TSX

35,234

▲ 1.24%

VIX

15.46

▼ 3.74%

USD/CAD

1.3897

▲ 0.03%

US10Y

4.4650

▼ 0.58%

Brazil · Markets

Key Facts

—The view: Bradesco says Brazil’s real may be entering a normalization phase after a long stretch of depreciation.

—The averages: The real exchange rate averaged R$/$4.08 from 1980 to 2026, and R$/$4.42 since the float began in 1999.

—The trend line: The 10-year moving average sits at R$/$4.98, near where the currency trades now, around R$/$5.08.

—The cycles: The bank finds Brazilian currency cycles are highly persistent, often lasting close to a decade.

—The caveat: Only the five-year average, skewed by the post-pandemic years, suggests the real is currently overvalued.

After more than a decade of a weakening currency, one of Brazil’s biggest banks sees a tentative sign that the long slide in the real may be levelling off.

RTAsk Rio TimesAsk about Latin American markets, currencies, and companies — answered from our reporting and live data.Start asking →

Brazil’s real may be entering a phase of normalization after an extended period of depreciation, according to a study by Banco Bradesco, one of the country’s largest lenders. The analysis frames the currency’s recent behavior against its own long history rather than short-term swings, and concludes that by most measures the real is no longer obviously cheap, a shift that matters for investors, importers and policymakers alike.

What normalization of the real exchange rate means

Bradesco anchored its conclusion in averages stretching back decades. The real exchange rate averaged R$/$4.08 between 1980 and 2026, and R$/$4.42 over the period since Brazil adopted a floating regime in 1999.

The 10-year moving average has reached R$/$4.98, close to where the real currently trades, around R$/$5.08 to the dollar. Measured against those longer benchmarks, the currency looks roughly fairly valued rather than excessively weak.

The bank noted that only the five-year moving average, which is dominated by the unusual post-pandemic years, points to the real being overvalued, a sign of how much the reference period shapes the verdict.

Long cycles that last years

A central finding is just how persistent Brazil’s currency cycles are. Analyzing deviations from the long-run trend, Bradesco identified swings that can run for the better part of a decade.

Between June 2005 and November 2014, for example, the real stayed below trend for nearly 10 years. A second long depreciation began at the end of 2014, amid a fiscal and economic crisis, and ran for about 11 and a half years.

That persistence implies the currency does not snap back quickly; instead, it tends to grind through extended phases, which is part of why the bank treats a possible turn toward normalization as significant rather than fleeting.

Why it matters now

The timing is notable. Brazil’s central bank has held interest rates high to fight inflation, a stance that tends to support the currency by drawing in yield-seeking capital, and the country has been running large trade surpluses that bolster its external position.

At the same time, trade tensions with the United States and an approaching election cycle inject uncertainty that could disrupt any calm. For foreign investors, a more stable real would reduce a key risk in holding Brazilian assets; for the broader economy, it would ease the imported-inflation pressure that a falling currency brings.

Bradesco’s analysis stops short of forecasting a sustained rally, framing the moment instead as a possible inflection after years of weakness, with the outcome dependent on fiscal discipline and the global backdrop.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Bradesco conclude about the real?

That the currency may be entering a normalization phase after years of depreciation, and looks roughly fairly valued against long-run averages.

Where does the real trade now?

Around R$/$5.08 to the dollar, close to its 10-year moving average of R$/$4.98.

How long are Brazil’s currency cycles?

Highly persistent, often close to a decade; the bank cites a roughly 11-and-a-half-year depreciation that began in late 2014.

Why does a stable real matter?

It reduces currency risk for foreign investors and eases the imported-inflation pressure that a weakening real creates.