Poll shows anti-Netanyahu bloc winning majority; Eisenkot seen as best fit to be PM in separate survey

A new poll published Thursday by The Times of Israel’s sister site, Zman Yisrael, showed the bloc of Zionist parties not aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could muster enough seats for a majority on their own if elections were held today, a first for a major survey in recent months.

A separate poll aired by Israel’s Channel 12 News showed Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the new Yashar party, was preferred over Netanyahu as prime minister for the first time. That survey, however, did not have any bloc gaining a 61-seat Knesset majority needed to form a government.

According to the Zman poll, the 500 survey respondents gave the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc 62 seats, including Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, which would squeeze into the Knesset with four seats.

Parties aligned with Netanyahu won 50 seats in the survey, with the two mainly Arab parties, Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al, winning the remaining eight seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Israel must hold elections by October 27, but may do so a little earlier, with a bill to dissolve parliament and move up voting day currently advancing in the Knesset.

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The rise in support for the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc came despite Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party having also crossed the threshold in the poll with four seats.

Previous surveys showed anti-Netanyahu parties falling short of 61 seats without the support of Arab factions.

The survey scored the parties as follows: Likud: 23 seats; Together led by Naftali Bennett: 21; Yashar led by Eisenkot: 19; Yisrael Beytenu: 10; Shas: 9; The Democrats: 8; United Torah Judaism: 8; Otzma Yehudit: 6; Ra’am:4; Hadash-Ta’al: 4; Religious Zionism: 4; Blue and White: 4.

The poll found Arab party Balad and the Reservists party fell below the threshold.

The survey also showed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar continuing to close in on Bennett’s Together as the largest anti-Netanyahu Zionist party.

Were the Arab parties to unite and run on a Joint List, they would together win 13 seats, the survey also found, in which case the parties in the pro-Netanyahu bloc would fall to a combined 48 seats, and the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc would fall to 59 seats, short of a majority.

The Zman Yisrael poll was conducted on June 3-4 by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel. The sample size was 500, and the margin of error was ±4.4%.

Eisenkot seen as best suited to serve as PM

In its poll, when Channel 12 asked whether Eisenkot or Netanyahu was more suited to be premier, 38 percent of respondents said the former, while 35 percent said the incumbent premier. Netanyahu was preferred to former prime minister Naftali Bennett by 38 percent to 31 percent.

Voters do not directly elect the prime minister in Israel’s electoral system.

The survey also asked opposition voters who should lead the anti-Netanyahu opposition, and they plumped for Eisenkot over Bennett by 46 percent to 39 percent.

Asked whether Bennett’s Together party and Eisenkot’s Yashar should unite for the elections, 53 percent of opposition voters say yes, and 33 percent say no.

In terms of party support, the Channel 12 survey showed the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc winning 59 seats, the pro-Netanyahu coalition 51 seats, and the Arab parties holding the other 10.

It scored the parties as follows: Likud: 23; Together: 21; Yashar: 19; The Democrats: 10; Shas: 9; Yisrael Beytenu: 9; Otzma Yehudit: 8; United Torah Judaism: 7; Hadash- Ta’al: 5; Ra’am: 5; Religious Zionism: 4.

The survey put Gantz’s Blue and White party below the Knesset threshold, along with the Reservists and Balad.

Asked if they supported Wednesday’s chaotic and contentious election by MKs of Netanyahu’s lawyer, Michael Rabello, as state comptroller, 18 percent of respondents were in favor, and 45 percent were against.

Asked if they feared the general elections due this fall would be “disrupted,” 57 percent said yes and 35 percent said no.

The Channel 12 poll was conducted by the Midgam polling firm on June 4. The sample size was 505, and the margin of error was ±4.4 percent.