Why Congress ups ante in Karnataka, bets big on DKS as Siddaramaiah remains in the game

What worked for D K Shivakumar, popularly known as DKS, who took oath as the new Chief Minister of Karnataka Wednesday, seemed to be a calculation made by the Congress high command that he will pull out all stops to spearhead the party to power in 2028 again.

Having been a CM aspirant for several years – and worked relentlessly towards achieving this goal – Shivakumar, 64, is unlikely to be satisfied with being the CM for only two years, and could be expected to go into an overdrive. Before becoming the “richest CM”, DKS had already shown his mettle as an organiser, fund mobiliser, troubleshooter and a backroom strategist for the party. Now he will be called to put these skills into full use in the run-up to the 2028 Assembly elections to show that he can deliver infrastructure projects in Bengaluru, ensure adequate funds for the party’s promised “guarantees”, and catch the imagination of Gen Z with good governance.

Shivakumar’s predecessor Siddaramaiah, the 78-year-old two-time CM, had earlier maintained that he would not contest the next election. That could have been just a message to the Congress leadership to let him complete his entire tenure in his second term. Rahul Gandhi supported him essentially because as the Congress’s tallest OBC leader in the state, his credentials were in sync with the politics the former has sought to pursue nationally around the themes of caste census and social justice.

For the Congress, which has virtually become a party of the South, it has become a make-or-break battle to retain Karnataka. While the party wrested Kerala from the Left Front, and retains Telangana, where CM Revanth Reddy seems to have doubled down on his outreach to the masses – in a manner compared with the late Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s efforts in united Andhra Pradesh – the real challenge for the party lies in retaining Karnataka.

Barring Karnataka, the BJP has so far not managed to come to power in other southern states. So the BJP will also try to tap into any “anti-incumbency” in Karnataka to mount its bid to return to the helm two years down the line.

Karnataka becomes more important for the BJP in the wake of its debacle in recent Tamil Nadu elections, where the Congress has returned to government after six decades, as a junior partner of Vijay’s TVK. The grand old party dumped its old ally and ex-incumbent DMK with which it had fought the elections. The new alignments in state politics that Vijay’s win has triggered have yet to crystallise.

While the DMK is distancing itself from the INDIA bloc – there are reports about the Dravidian party’s “back channel talks” with the BJP – Vijay has shown no hurry to join the Opposition grouping, even though the Congress is its key ally now.

When Vijay recently came to Delhi on his first official visit as the CM, he called on PM Modi besides meeting Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. However, he wrapped up his Delhi visit and returned to Chennai without meeting Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.

These were seen as straws in the wind, to indicate that the political newbie, despite his stunning electoral success, may choose to tread with caution now and not upset the Centre in any way. The point remains that Vijay does not have a majority on his own in the Assembly. The Congress, which has only five MLAs, may also have to guard its flock closely – it could be early days for the party to celebrate in Tamil Nadu.

Congress play

Given the Congress’s high stakes in the South, the party high command has lately displayed more prudence in its decision making in the region. As in Kerala, where Rahul Gandhi was initially leaning towards his confidant, AICC general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal, becoming the CM, he finally agreed on the candidature of V D Satheesan for the top job.

It was Satheesan who, as the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the Kerala Assembly, had been seen by people as the face of the Congress-led UDF’s fight against the incumbent Left, even though Venugopal had the support of a majority of MLAs.

In Karnataka too, as DKS became increasingly restive for the post he had been promised under a rotational chief ministership deal, months after Siddaramaiah completed his half-way mark, the Congress leadership decided to bell the cat. Rahul and Venugopal had initially been in favour of Siddaramaiah’s continuance while Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra reportedly supported the need for a change. Eventually, all came on the same page – and it was DKS.

DKS and Siddaramaiah

In Karnataka, the changing of guard was a smooth affair, unlike Rajasthan where the Congress leadership could not get its way in 2022. The then Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot upstaged the AICC observers who had been sent to Jaipur to name Sachin Pilot as his successor, who was also promised chief ministership in the second half of the government.

However, Siddaramaiah chose to play his cards differently from the way Gehlot had done. He saw the writing on the wall and made way for his deputy – and that is not an easy thing to do. The senior leader embraced his junior, displaying impeccable optics, and earning public sympathy, along the way.

But this did not mean that Siddaramaiah was calling it quits. By accepting the caste census just before his exit, he has left a hot potato for his successor – to implement it and risk the unhappiness of his own Vokkaliga community, or to put it on the backburner and provoke the wrath of the backward classes.

Cast in the old school mould,  Siddaramaiah chose to make his moves politically. He said he was not interested in a Rajya Sabha seat or moving onto the national stage, making it clear that he would continue as an MLA in the state. However, on the eve of the DKS’s swearing in as the CM, he was appointed a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC).

Unlike Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar is not considered a mass leader. He also does not enjoy the support of a caste alliance that Siddaramaiah has had in the form of AHINDA, comprising sections of backward classes, dalits and minorities, which has stood the Congress in good stead.

The Vokkaliga group makes up more than 10 % of the state’s population and is concentrated in the old Mysore region that accounts for 61 Assembly seats. The community has so far looked up to former PM H D Deve Gowda, the JD(S) chief, and his son and Union minister H D Kumaraswamy, as their key leaders. The elevation of DKS may make the JD (S) vulnerable.

There are already reports that a worried Kumaraswamy may consider returning back to state politics to keep his flock together and consolidate the JD(S)’s vote base.The situation is in a flux, but Karnataka may be heading towards a more bipolar politics.

It is evident from the ministers inducted in his Cabinet, several of them close to Siddaramaiah, that DKS realises the importance of keeping his predecessor placated for his government’s success. Power sharing may well be the name of the game. And the “doer” DKS has his task cut out.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)