Summer most likely window for US attack on Cuba, Chinese defence tech firm says

Any US military attack on Cuba would most likely take place this summer, according to a Chinese defence technology company closely tracking US military movements around the island.

The assessment by Jingan Technology, a civilian start-up founded in 2021 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, said that if the US were to use force against Cuba, it would most likely take the form of a rapid “decapitation and paralysis” operation aimed at regime change, rather than a large-scale invasion.

The company uses artificial intelligence and data analytics to analyse national security and defence challenges. It based its assessment on the “rhythm” of US military deployments around Cuba – which it said intensified in recent months – and on political cycles.

“As the US-Iran gambit slides towards a defining conclusion, the US urgently needs to achieve a low-cost, high-yield symbolic strategic victory in its ‘geopolitical backyard’ of the western hemisphere to restore its global dominance and deterrence posture,” it said in an article published on its social media account on Thursday.

The timing of the US midterm elections in November was also cited as a potential driver, with the company suggesting that US President Donald Trump might seek a quick win to boost political support.

However, it also added that the potential summer window was constrained by high uncertainty in the US-Iran war, which could divert US military resources to the Middle East and ultimately determine whether any operation against Cuba was feasible.