A Wall Street Model Ranks Latin America’s World Cup Chances

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World Cup 2026 · Business of Football

Key Facts

—The forecast: A Goldman Sachs model gives Spain a 26% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France (19%), Argentina (14%) and Brazil (8%).

—The Latin angle: Argentina rank third and Brazil fifth; the model projects an all-South American semi-final between the two before Argentina reaches the final.

—The method: The bank ran nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 through a statistical model built on chess-style Elo ratings, scoring output and momentum.

—The hosts: Of the three host nations, the model gives Mexico a 68% chance of reaching the last 16, Canada 50% and the United States 39%.

—The caveat: Goldman stresses the model’s limits, and its own past forecasts have flopped — it tipped Brazil to win in 2014 and 2018.

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An investment bank has crunched half a century of results to forecast football’s biggest prize. The numbers are intriguing for Latin American fans — and the bank is the first to admit they may mean very little.

How the World Cup model rates the contenders

Goldman Sachs has once again applied the tools of financial forecasting to football, publishing a statistical model that ranks every nation’s chance of lifting the 2026 World Cup. The headline result favours Europe: the bank’s economists, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, give reigning European champions Spain a 26% probability of winning the tournament, comfortably ahead of France on 19%. For Latin American readers, the interest lies a notch below the top, where the region’s two giants sit. Defending champions Argentina are ranked third with a 14% chance, while five-time winners Brazil come in fifth at 8%, behind the two European front-runners and roughly level with England and the Netherlands.

The model maps out a full path to the July 19 final in New York. It projects two blockbuster semi-finals: an all-European clash of France against Spain, and an all-South American showdown between Argentina and Brazil. In Goldman’s simulation, Argentina edges that continental battle to reach the final, only to fall to Spain in the decider. The bank frames the overall pattern in historical terms, noting that the trophy “almost always” returns to Europe after a South American side has held it — as Argentina has since 2022.

The “winner’s slump” and the hosts

One of the model’s more pointed conclusions concerns Argentina. Despite their pedigree and the continued presence of Lionel Messi, Goldman flags a “winner’s slump” — the well-documented tendency of reigning champions to underperform at the following tournament. Recent history is unkind here: holders Italy, Spain and Germany all stumbled badly at the World Cup after their triumphs, with some failing to escape the group stage. No nation has successfully defended the trophy since Brazil in 1962, and the model treats that as a meaningful drag on Argentina’s chances rather than a fluke.

For the three host nations, the model offers more modest encouragement. Mexico, playing at the storied Estadio Azteca, is given a 68% chance of advancing from its group to the round of 16 — the strongest of the trio, helped by home advantage. Canada is put at 50% and the United States at 39%, reflecting tougher draws and lower underlying ratings. None of the hosts figures among the genuine title contenders in Goldman‘s reckoning, a reminder that home soil tends to lift teams only so far against the sport’s established powers.

Why to take it with a pinch of salt

The mechanics are worth understanding before reading too much into the percentages. The model rests on nearly 20,000 competitive international matches played since 1978, combined with the Elo rating system — a method originally devised for ranking chess players that scores a team’s strength by its results and the quality of its opponents. Spain tops those Elo rankings going into the tournament, which is the main reason the model favours them. Crucially, the approach is almost purely statistical: it does not weigh player injuries, managerial nous or the intangibles that often decide knockout football, drawing instead only on what a team’s track record already reflects.

Goldman is candid about the limits. Its economists acknowledge the model’s “statistical power remains limited,” an unsurprising admission given football’s inherent unpredictability, and independent experts have been blunter still — one academic called it a “fun exercise” that falls well short of the betting markets in accuracy. The bank’s own record bears that out: it tipped Brazil as favourites in both 2014 and 2018, and on each occasion the Seleção fell short. The figures broadly track the bookmakers, who also install Spain among the favourites with Argentina and Brazil in the chasing pack, but no model has yet tamed the chaos of a World Cup. For Latin American supporters, the takeaway is less a prediction than a provocation: by the cold logic of the data, the region’s hopes rest most heavily on Argentina — slump and all.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does the Goldman model favour to win?

Spain, with a 26% probability, ahead of France (19%), Argentina (14%) and Brazil (8%). It projects Spain beating Argentina in the final.

How do Argentina and Brazil rate?

Argentina rank third and Brazil fifth. The model projects them meeting in an all-South American semi-final, with Argentina advancing to the final.

How does the model work?

It runs nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 through a statistical system built on chess-style Elo ratings, scoring data and momentum, without weighing injuries or coaching.

How reliable is it?

Goldman concedes its statistical power is limited, and it wrongly tipped Brazil to win in 2014 and 2018. Analysts say betting markets tend to be more accurate.

Connected Coverage

The model lands as Latin America’s qualifiers prepare for the tournament, from Paraguay’s return after 16 years to the strong South American showing across the qualifying campaign.