Armenia braces for election as Russia piles pressure on pro-West government

38 minutes ago

Rayhan DemytrieCaucasus correspondent, Yerevan, Armenia

Armenia votes on 7 June under mounting Russian economic pressure, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks re-election on a promise of European integration.

The election has drawn significant international attention to the small South Caucasus nation of three million people, which has steadily grown closer to the West while still intertwined with Russia, its largest trading partner.

The rapprochement with the West is largely Pashinyan's doing.

Since coming to power in 2018, the prime minister has steered his country away from Moscow, passed a law to launch the process of joining the EU, and accelerated the peace process with neighbouring Azerbaijan via a US-brokered agreement. The latter has won him US President Donald Trump's endorsement.

Pashinyan also hosted a large summit of EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the capital, Yerevan, earlier this year.

Yet despite these successes, Pashinyan's domestic support has fallen from 54% in 2021 to around 30% today.

The main reason is Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave inside Azerbaijan that was home to 100,000 ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan took it by force in 2023.

Pashinyan's critics have never forgiven him for making concessions in favour of peace with Azerbaijan, like refusing to campaign for the release of former leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh who are in jail in the neighbouring country.

The peace deal with Azerbaijan, too, remains deeply divisive, with one recent poll showing 44% of public opinion in support and 41% opposed.

Pashinyan's critics now form several opposition parties and alliances. One of the main ones is the Armenia Alliance, led by former president Robert Kocharyan. Former president Serzh Sargsyan's Republican Party is not fielding candidates but has urged its supporters to vote against the incumbent.

Both ex-leaders argue that restoring deep military and economic ties with Russia is Armenia's only path to national security.

And Pashinyan's main challenger is billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who made his fortune in Russia. He is under house arrest - accused of plotting to overthrow the government - and is conducting the campaign through his nephew.

The latest International Republican Institute poll shows Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading with 32%, while around 40% of voters say they trust no political figure.

If the opposition candidates worked together, they could match Pashinyan's vote, but divided they cannot beat him.

Russia's economic weapon

Over the vote looms Moscow.

Last month, Vladimir Putin listed the economic benefits Armenia stood to lose if it pursued closer ties with the West, and pointedly noted that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession".

Tangible economic measures follow the rhetoric. In the two weeks preceding the election, Moscow banned the export of Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, fresh vegetables and fruit.

Russia is Armenia's leading trade partner and accounted for 36% of its foreign trade in 2025.

Moscow "is trying to somehow impact the final results of voting on June 7," said Haykaz Fanyan of the Armenian Centre for Socio-Economic Studies. "We in Armenia believe it is very highly correlated with current political processes."

He notes that Armenia's dependence on Russian military equipment has shrunk dramatically, with around 95% of Armenia's military imports now coming from India, France, China and other countries.

"The only way Russia can impact Armenia now is economic," Fanyan said.

But that is still a significant weapon for Moscow to wield. Russia supplies Armenia with gas at $177.50 (£87) per 1,000 cubic metres, while European market prices, as Putin pointed out to Pashinyan in April, exceed $600.

In late May, the Russian president also called on Armenia to hold a referendum "as soon as possible" on whether to join the EU or remain in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a customs bloc from which Armenia benefits.

Pashinyan swerved the challenge. Despite his developing, good-natured relationship with European leaders, Armenia doesn't even have EU candidate status yet, and membership of the bloc is still a long way off.

"We will continue to work within the EAEU until the choice between its current membership and the EU becomes unavoidable," he said. "Today this choice is theoretical in nature."

Still, the EU is not standing back idly. On Thursday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged €50m (£43m) for Armenia in the face of what she said was a case of "Moscow weaponising economic relations for political pressure", and added the EU would ease trade with Yerevan for goods targeted by Moscow.

A tense campaign

Pashinyan has been campaigning under the slogan 'Stand for Peace!".

But the campaign has not been without confrontation - notably between Pashinyan and displaced Karabakh Armenians. One incident ended with the prime minister using offensive language against civil activist Artur Osipyan, who was later arrested on charges of obstructing the election campaign and went on hunger strike in protest.

Such incidents have led opposition figures to accuse Pashinyan of growing authoritarianism and of using state resources - including pressure on civil servants to attend his rallies - to his advantage.

"Pashinyan and his regime are using all possible and impossible administrative levers. They are spreading the atmosphere of fear and blackmailing," said Artur Khachatryan, a member of parliament from the opposition Armenia Alliance.

"I cannot remember any campaign as tense as this one."

Pashinyan is running on his doctrine of "Real Armenia" - a country at peace with Azerbaijan and integrated into Europe, rather than one defined by territorial ambitions and dependence on Moscow.

His support may have collapsed – but for many voters he remains the only alternative to a return to a past tinged by corruption and authoritarianism.

For ordinary Armenians heading to the polls the question is harder than any geopolitical framing: are they willing to bear the economic costs of the direction Pashinyan has chosen – costs Russia is making sure they can feel – knowing that a European future is still a distant prospect?

On 7 June, that question gets an answer.