Armenia goes to polls in pivotal vote to decide South Caucasus future

Armenians are all set to head to the polls on Sunday in a decisive election that will shape the future of the South Caucasus country and the entire region, as Russia warned Yerevan of a “Ukraine scenario,” while the EU and the US came together to support Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s cautious pro-West pivot after securing a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

The voters are choosing between Pashinyan and his centrist Civil Contract party, and a fragmented pro-Russian opposition openly supported by the Kremlin.

Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan — running while under house arrest — is leading the Strong Armenia party as its main figure, alongside former President Robert Kocharyan, who also ran a pro-Moscow campaign.

A Breavis poll published days before the vote projects that Armenians would give Pashinyan a decisive mandate of over 60% of decided voters to solidify the South Caucasus country's strategic realignment towards a pro-Western path, setting it on a collision course with the Kremlin and cementing the historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan over Karabakh.

The poll showed that no opposition party was expected to rise above 12%.

On the eve of the vote, Armenia’s Investigative Committee arrested six candidates from the opposition Strong Armenian party on Saturday, after the Central Election Commission announced that it authorised judicial action over allegations of money laundering and material inducement.

Also on Saturday, media reports showed a sharp increase in Armenians arriving in Yerevan from Russia to vote, amid Armenian media and civil society allegations of widespread Russian disinformation campaigns and actions to influence the vote, which Moscow denied.

During the final stages of the volatile election campaign, both the European Union and the United States firmly endorsed Pashinyan as he cautiously but surely introduced a pro-Western reorientation of Armenia’s foreign policy after the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, setting the nation of some 3 million on a collision course with Russia.

The European Commission declared it was “standing firmly” behind Pashinyan, announcing an economic support package of measures to alleviate mounting Russian economic sanctions against Yerevan due to its pro-Western, pro-EU turn.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on Thursday that Moscow has "weaponised economic relations for political pressure" by furthering export restrictions on Armenian products.

“We know this playbook all too well. This is why Europe stands firmly with Armenia," von der Leyen said.

US President Donald Trump called on Armenians to “Make Armenia Great Again,” declaring his “complete and total endorsement” for Pashinyan’s re-election.

“Nikol (Pashinyan) completely shares my vision of peace and prosperity for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region,” Trump said, marking the first time a US president has endorsed a candidate in a country on Russia’s regional orbit.

Trump called Pashinyan a “great friend and leader,” adding that he is “making his country strong, wealthy, and very secure,” referring to Armenia’s premier signing a historic peace agreement at the White House with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev last year, which paved the way for significant US investments in the country.

Pashinyan has conducted a fiery election campaign, telling Armenians that their future is at stake and openly confronting the critics and the opposition who accused him of giving up on Karabakh and therefore betraying the country, in a key message that he closed the chapter with Azerbaijan to forge a peaceful and prosperous future for the South Caucasus region.

Pashinyan maintained that “abandoning Karabakh was my greatest service to Armenia,” as “we were put in a trap and if we continued on that path, we would lose Armenia and Armenian statehood.”

Pashinyan said it was time for Armenia to look at the future, declaring that “we have no right to pass this bleeding wound from generation to generation, we must pass peace on to our children," adding that “today we are more independent, more prosperous, and more of a state than ever before.”

But as Moscow unleashed a series of economic restrictions on key Armenian imports and threatened Yerevan with cuts in its vital oil and gas supplies, Pashinyan has taken cautious steps over the last week of the campaign to defuse tensions with Russia and insist on a multi-vector foreign policy with Armenia’s interests at centre stage.

On Thursday he said he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to travel to Moscow to “have a meeting and resolve all current issues,” stating that "we will not engage in a war of words with Russia, we will calmly defend Armenia’s positions."

“We will not act against Russia’s interests, but neither will we act against our own interests,” Pashinyan said during a campaign rally.

Just days before, he said that Armenia’s EU membership bid is at the moment “theoretical” and that Yerevan "will continue to work calmly and steadily, without disputes, within the Eurasian Economic Union, and I am convinced that we still have potential in this direction, which we will use in the near future."

The Armenian premier further said that “relations with Russia are in a transformational phase,” but that he considered this process “positive” and that Armenia’s relations with Russia remained "open and sincere, and we have kept no dark corners in that relationship.”

The polls open at 8 am local time (6 am CET) for the 2,4 million Armenians eligible to vote, with first results expected as early as Sunday evening into Monday morning.