UPSC Key: India-Nepal relations, Project Glasswing, and DAY-NRLM review

Read the article. Then crack the quiz.

Q1 of 6 India-Nepal Relations

Which agreement between India and Nepal completed its internal processes and entered into force during the Jaishankar-Khanal meeting?

Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Mutual Legal Assistance Agreement in Criminal Matters Bilateral Investment Treaty

The MLAA provides an institutional legal framework to enhance investigation, prosecution, and judicial proceedings relating to cross-border crimes between India and Nepal.

Next

Q2 of 6 Disaster Management

How does the slope drainage pipe system on Kalka-Shimla NH-5 prevent landslides?

It injects cement grout into the slope to bind loose soil layers together It collects rainwater at hilltop points and channels it through pipes to the slope base It pumps groundwater out of the hill to reduce soil saturation from below

Uncontrolled surface runoff is the primary trigger of slope failures during heavy monsoon spells. By intercepting water at the top and routing it safely downward, the system protects netting, anchors, and retaining structures from water damage.

Next

Q3 of 6 Cybersecurity & AI

Which Indian government agencies received access to Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview under Project Glasswing?

DRDO, ISRO, and the Ministry of Electronics I4C, CERT-In, NCIIPC, and DoT's Digital Intelligence Platform RBI, SEBI, and the National Payments Corporation of India

NCIIPC falls under the National Security Advisor in the PMO and, along with CERT-In, requested Mythos access to identify vulnerabilities in India's critical infrastructure including banking and power sectors.

Next

Q4 of 6 Geography & Climate

Who first discovered the Southern Oscillation that transformed monsoon forecasting?

Jacob Bjerknes, a Norwegian-American meteorologist Sir Gilbert Walker Amitabh Sinha, a researcher at India Meteorological Department

Walker served at IMD from 1904 to 1924 and identified the see-saw behaviour of air pressure between east and west Pacific — later named the Southern Oscillation — while building a reliable monsoon forecast model. It was Bjerknes who later linked it to El Nino in the 1960s.

Next

Q5 of 6 International Trade

Under the India-Oman CEPA, what percentage of India's exports to Oman will receive zero-duty access?

75% of tariff lines covering 80% of India's exports 85% of tariff lines covering 90% of India's exports 98% of tariff lines covering 99% of India's exports

Under the CEPA, Indian exports to Oman that earlier faced duties of up to 5% — valued at around $3.64 billion — are expected to gain significantly. The deal entered into force on June 1, 2026, at a time when the Strait of Hormuz blockade is disrupting Gulf trade.

Next

Q6 of 6 Government Schemes

What does the DAY-NRLM evaluation's finding — that revolving funds were spent on household needs rather than businesses — primarily indicate?

SHG members lacked awareness of the scheme's objectives A structural gap between immediate consumption needs and enterprise readiness in rural women Banks failed to disburse funds to the correct beneficiaries

The evaluation found weak demand for products, fear of loan defaults, and limited ground-level support from facilitators — pointing to a structural mismatch between scheme design and ground realities faced by poor rural women. This assessment will decide DAY-NRLM's continuation in the 16th Finance Commission cycle.

See my score

/ 6

correct answers — UPSC Key, June 7

Share your score

Indian Express InfoGenIE

POLITICS

India, Nepal vow to take bilateral ties to new heights

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: India and its neighbourhood- relations.

What’s the ongoing story: India and Nepal completed the internal processes to enforce the mutual legal assistance pact to tackle “cross-border crimes”, as the visiting Foreign Minister of Nepal Shishir Khanal met External Affairs minister S Jaishankar on Saturday.

Key Points to Ponder:

— India-Nepal Bilateral Relations: Know the Historical Background

— What is the India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950?

— What is the present status of India-Nepal relations?

— What are the areas of cooperation and conflict between India and Nepal?

— India-Nepal Border Dispute-Know in details

— What is the significance of Nepal for India?

— What is India’s Neighbourhood First Policy?

— What is Digital India Bhashini?

— Map work: Indian states bordering Nepal, disputed areas between India and Nepal, China-Nepal border.

Key Takeaways:

— The two sides also made progress in the sectors of health, UPI, innovation and startups. Khanal’s visit comes days after the chief of Nepal’s ruling RSP, Rabi Lamichhane, met the Indian leadership in Delhi.

— The Ministry of External Affairs released an official statement: “Both Ministers welcomed the completion of internal processes for entry into force of the India-Nepal Mutual Legal Assistance Agreement in Criminal Matters (MLAA). This Agreement will benefit the people of India and Nepal by providing an institutional legal framework to enhance the effectiveness of investigation, prosecution and judicial proceedings relating to cross-border crimes.”

— The Nepalese Foreign Minister also met National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. After the bilateral talks, Jaishankar handed over 72 health facilities and 12 cultural heritage sector projects, completed under India’s post-2015 ‘Earthquake Reconstruction Assistance’ to Nepal, to the  visiting Foreign Minister.

— The ministers jointly launched the Peer-to-Peer (P2P) linkage between Unified Payments Interface (UPI) of India and National Payments Interface (NPI) of Nepal for facilitating cross-border personal remittances, the MEA said.

— It also said the ministers witnessed the signing of MoU between Digital India Bhashini and Kathmandu University for co-creating National Digital Infrastructure for “Voice First” Language Translation platform.

— This is the first official visit by the Nepalese Foreign minister after the new government led by PM Balendra Shah assumed office in March this year.

— “Nepal is a priority partner of India under its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the visit reinforced the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between the two close and friendly neighbours. It provided an opportunity to exchange views on enhancing the bilateral partnership to fulfill the aspirations of peoples from both countries, and has imparted fresh vigour to our efforts towards this objective,” the MEA said.

Do You Know:

— Nepal and India have a unique relationship. The open border, shared culture, economic interdependence and deep-rooted people-to-people relationship make bilateral ties special.

— The diplomatic challenge in dealing with the new Nepal is that Delhi is seen by some sections as a ‘bully’.

— The political actions and statements from India in 2015 alienated a vast section of the Nepalese population. This was when the Nepalese Constitution was being drafted, and India criticised it for not giving enough rights to Madhesis, who share community links on the Indian side of the border. There was also an unofficial, deeply unpopular months-long blockade of the India-Nepal border in Bihar.

— India, on its part, has sought to project itself as a benevolent “elder brother”, as then External Affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had once described, instead of “big brother”, an epithet used for bullying behaviour.

— Delhi feels that the ties are too strong to be overlooked. South Block says that India remains Nepal’s largest trade partner, about 80 lakh Nepalese citizens live and work in India, and around 6 lakh Indians live in Nepal. Indians account for about 30 per cent of foreign tourists in Nepal. The bilateral remittance flow is estimated at about US$ 3 billion (Nepal to India) and $ 1 billion (India to Nepal).

— There is also a geopolitical contest for influence playing out in Kathmandu. The Himalayan country finds itself sandwiched between the two powers, India and China, and Nepalese political leadership has in the past sought to use the China card with India. The US too is active and has been interested in being part of the landscape there.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍Explained: History of India and Nepal’s border issue

📍Nepal objects to Mansarovar Yatra via Lipulekh; India says unjustified

📍Old ties, new Nepal: What India needs to negotiate

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(1) Consider the following pairs: (UPSC CSE 2016)

Community sometimes mentioned in the news              In the affairs of

1. Kurd                                                                                                          Bangladesh

2. Madhesi                                                                                                      Nepal

3. Rohingya                                                                                                   Myanmar

Which of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 only

(c) 2 and 3 only

(d) 3 only

Funds for women’s businesses spent on household needs, finds NRLM review

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Government Policies and interventions.

What’s the ongoing story: A government-commissioned evaluation of central rural sector schemes, including the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM), has found that most self-help groups (SHGs) for women did not start income-generating businesses with the funds provided. Instead, the revolving fund of Rs 20,000- Rs 30,000 offered per group as part of the Centre’s flagship programme to organise poor rural women into SHGs and train them for small enterprises was often spent on household expenses, according to the report submitted to the Rural Development Ministry.

Key Points to Ponder:

— Know in detail about the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihoods Mission.

— What are the key features of DAY-NRLM?

— How does DAY-NRLM promote women’s empowerment in rural India?

— What is the Revolving Fund (RF) provided under DAY-NRLM?

— What are SHGs? What role do SHGs play in rural poverty alleviation?

— What are the challenges faced in converting SHGs into sustainable enterprises?

— How do women’s SHGs contribute to women’s empowerment in rural areas?

Key Takeaways:

— The review is significant given that the Finance Ministry last year directed that no centrally funded scheme will be extended beyond March 31, 2026, unless it undergoes a third-party evaluation. This assessment will therefore decide whether and how the DAY-NRLM will continue in the five-year 16th Finance Commission cycle beginning in April 2026.

— The study titled ‘Evaluation of Centrally Sponsored Schemes in Package 5-Rural Development Sector’ also flags that there was pressure on officials to form SHGs quickly to meet targets, even in villages where business opportunities were limited.

— The report shows that the SHG members used bank loans for building houses, constructing toilets, medical purposes, etc.

— With weak demand for products and fear of loan defaults, many members were unwilling to borrow from banks. As a result, “the RF (Revolving Fund) is often equally distributed among members and utilised to meet their immediate consumption needs.”

— Access to other financial support under the scheme was also low: fewer than half the respondents received the Community Investment Fund (CIF), only 42 per cent accessed bank loans, and less than 4 per cent received the Community Enterprise Fund (CEF) meant for larger ventures. Limited ground-level support from facilitators and federations added to the problem.

Do You Know:

— Launched in 2011 as the National Rural Livelihood Mission and renamed in 2016, DAY-NRLM aims to reduce rural poverty by mobilising women into SHGs and linking them with banks, markets, and government support.

— Apart from the revolving fund at the rate of Rs 20,000-30,000 per SHG, groups can get up to Rs 2.5 lakh as a Community Investment Fund (CIF) to support their income-generating and livelihood activities, including entrepreneurial ventures.

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(2) With reference to the Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihoods Mission scheme, consider the following statements:

1. The scheme was launched in 2011 and renamed in 2016.

2. It aims to reduce rural poverty by mobilising women into SHGs and linking them with banks, markets, and government support.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

FRONT

Key cybersecurity agencies set to get access to Anthropic’s Mythos

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II, III: Government policies and interventions, Challenges to internal security through communication networks, basics of cyber security, Awareness in the fields of IT, Space, Computers and issues relating to intellectual property rights.

What’s the ongoing story: US artificial intelligence company Anthropic is extending access to its closely guarded cybersecurity initiative, Project Glasswing, to a select set of organisations in India, including key government entities that are responsible for safeguarding cybersecurity across sectors like banking, telecom, and power, The Indian Express has learned.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is Project Glasswing?

— What is Claude Mythos? What are the concerns related to it?

— What are frontier AI models?

— What are the benefits and risks of using advanced AI models in cybersecurity?

— How is AI currently governed?

— What are the challenges associated with the regulation of AI?

— What has been India’s response to demands for AI regulation?

— Know about the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre and CERT-In.

— What steps have been taken by the government with regard to cybersecurity?

Key Takeaways:

— Government agencies such as the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C); Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In); National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC); and the Department of Telecommunications’ Digital Intelligence Platform (DIP) are among the state-owned entities that are understood to have received access to Anthropic’s advanced frontier AI model Mythos.

— Anthropic is also said to have extended access to some cybersecurity-focused research institutions in India, while discussions are underway on providing Mythos Preview to dedicated cybersecurity and AI teams within some of the country’s largest IT services companies, a senior government official said on condition of anonymity.

— This move comes as part of Anthropic’s announcement that it would expand Project Glasswing beyond its initial cohort of participants in the US and UK to more than 15 countries, including India.

— Under the programme, vetted organisations are granted access to Claude Mythos Preview, an unreleased AI model that Anthropic says is capable of identifying critical software vulnerabilities at a level that could fundamentally alter the balance between cyber attackers and defenders. The company has so far restricted access to the model, citing concerns that its capabilities could be misused if released publicly.

— The official added that NCIIPC, which falls under the National Security Advisor in the Prime Minister’s Office, and CERT-In had requested access to Mythos to identify vulnerabilities within India’s critical infrastructure such as banking and power. The Indian Express had earlier reported that the Indian government was in conversations with Anthropic’s senior leadership in the US for assistance in gaining access to the model.

Anthropic's Glasswing Comes to India

India's Access Project Glasswing Claude Mythos

INDIA ACCESS

Four key government agencies are in

I4C, CERT-In, NCIIPC, and DoT's Digital Intelligence Platform have received access to Mythos Preview under Project Glasswing. NCIIPC — which reports to the NSA in the PMO — and CERT-In specifically requested the model to probe vulnerabilities in India's banking and power infrastructure.

◆

I4C — Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre

Coordinates cyber crime response across all central and state agencies.

◆

CERT-In — Computer Emergency Response Team

National nodal agency for cyber incident response and vulnerability alerts.

◆

NCIIPC — Critical Infrastructure Protection

Falls under the NSA/PMO; protects energy, banking, and telecom infrastructure.

◆

DoT's Digital Intelligence Platform

Department of Telecommunications' intelligence unit for digital threats.

"Banks were directed to engage the best available cybersecurity professionals and specialised agencies to continuously strengthen defensive and monitoring capabilities."

— Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, directing IBA, April 2026

WHAT IS IT

Anthropic's restricted cybersecurity initiative

Project Glasswing is Anthropic's programme to share Claude Mythos Preview with a vetted set of organisations focused on cybersecurity defence. Initially limited to the US and UK, it is now expanding to more than 15 countries — with India among the first wave of new entrants.

15+

Countries in expanded cohort

2

Original cohort countries (US, UK)

4+

India govt entities with access

HOW IT WORKS

Vetted access, not public release

Organisations must be vetted before receiving access. Anthropic has withheld Mythos from public release due to concerns that its vulnerability-finding capabilities could be weaponised by malicious actors. Glasswing is the controlled channel through which trusted defenders can use it.

ALSO IN PIPELINE

Cybersecurity-focused research institutions in India

UNDER DISCUSSION

Large Indian IT services companies with dedicated cyber teams

THE MODEL

A "step change" above existing AI systems

Claude Mythos is Anthropic's most advanced frontier model — sitting above its existing flagship models in reasoning, coding, and problem-solving. It is designed to analyse software, understand complex codebases, and identify security weaknesses with minimal human supervision.

10×

Faster than prior tools at finding security bugs

1,000s

Vulnerabilities found in major OS & browsers

★

Decades-old bugs found

Mythos uncovered vulnerabilities that had remained undetected for decades in widely used operating systems and web browsers.

●

Dual-use risk — why access is restricted

The same capabilities that help defenders find flaws can help attackers exploit them. Anthropic cites this as the reason Mythos has not been publicly released.

→

Minimal human supervision required

Unlike earlier tools, Mythos can autonomously navigate complex codebases to pinpoint weaknesses — compressing the time between vulnerability discovery and patch deployment.

Sources: The Indian Express · Anthropic (anthropic.com/glasswing)

— Concerned about the potential impact that Mythos could have on India’s critical infrastructure, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in April, held a high-level meeting, along with IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw to assess risks posed by the powerful model to the country’s banking sector.

— During the meeting, the banking sector was asked to take pre-emptive steps to safeguard their systems from the AI model. Sitharaman directed the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) to develop a coordinated institutional mechanism to respond swiftly and effectively to any such threat. She also directed banks to engage the best available cybersecurity professionals and specialised agencies “to continuously strengthen the defensive and monitoring capabilities of the banks”.

Do You Know:

— Mythos is part of a new generation of large AI systems that sit above Anthropic’s existing flagship models in terms of reasoning, coding ability and problem-solving. Internally described as a “step change” in capability, the system is designed to analyse software, understand complex codebases and identify security weaknesses with minimal human supervision.

— Early experiments have already demonstrated its potential impact. The model was able to discover thousands of vulnerabilities across major operating systems and web browsers, including some that had remained undetected for decades.

— The system’s efficiency is also striking. Anthropic researchers say the model is roughly an order of magnitude faster than previous tools in identifying security bugs, significantly compressing the time between vulnerability discovery and exploitation.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍What is Claude Mythos, and why is Anthropic limiting its rollout?

📍Anthropic launches Project Glasswing to test advanced AI for cybersecurity

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(3) With the present state of development, Artificial Intelligence can effectively do which of the following? (UPSC CSE, 2020)

1. Bring down electricity consumption in industrial units

2. Create meaningful short stories and songs

3. Disease diagnosis

4. Text-to-Speech Conversion

5. Wireless transmission of electrical energy

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1, 2, 3 and 5 only

(b) 1, 3 and 4 only

(c) 2, 4 and 5 only

(d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

Previous year UPSC Main Question Covering similar theme:

Introduce the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI). How does AI help clinical diagnosis? Do you perceive any threat to privacy of the individual in the use of AI in healthcare? (UPSC CSE 2023)

NATION

To cut landslide risks, NHAI installs slope drain pipe system on Kalka-Shimla stretch

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II, III: Important Geophysical phenomena, geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features Government policies and interventions, Disaster and disaster management.

What’s the ongoing story: In a major effort to reduce landslide incidents ahead of the monsoon season, the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has introduced a slope drainage pipe system at 83 vulnerable points along the 85 km-long Kalka-Shimla NH-5, one of the most landslide-prone road corridors in Himachal Pradesh.

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the slope drainage pipe system?

— Know about the slope stabilisation project.

— What is the shotcrete technique?

— How is the slope drainage pipe system different from the shotcrete technique?

— What are landslides? What are the major causes of landslides in the Himalayan region ?

— How prone is India to landslides?

— How can improved drainage systems help in reducing disaster risks in mountainous areas?

— What measures have been taken by the government to reduce the damage caused by landslides?

Key Takeaways:

— The intervention, which is nearing completion, forms part of the ongoing slope stabilisation project being carried out between Parwanoo and Kathlighat. Officials said the drainage system was conceived after slope protection measures undertaken earlier failed to fully address the problem of rainwater runoff during intense monsoon spells.

— The drainage system involves construction of small water collection points at the top of hillsides. These collection points are connected to a network of pipes and cement-lined drains that channel rainwater directly to the bottom of the slope. The objective is to prevent water from flowing freely over the slope surface, which often triggers soil erosion, damages protective structures and leads to landslides.

— Officials said the idea emerged after the 2025 monsoon exposed limitations in the existing protection system. Although netting and anchoring had been completed at several sites, heavy rainfall caused large volumes of water to flow down the slopes, resulting in slope failures and damage to mesh structures, anchors and retaining measures.

— NHAI project director (Kalka-Shimla) Anand Dahiya said the system has already shown encouraging results during recent pre-monsoon showers.

— The drainage initiative complements the broader slope stabilisation programme launched by NHAI for the first time on the Kalka-Shimla highway. The project covers 83 vulnerable locations, including 81 hill-side slopes and two valley-side sites at Chakki Mod and Datyar.

— The works involve green mesh netting, soil nailing, drilling, anchoring and vegetation-based stabilisation measures aimed at preserving the natural landscape while reducing landslide risks.

— The project represents a departure from the earlier shotcrete technique, under which concrete was sprayed directly onto hill slopes. While effective in controlling slope failures, the method left behind large barren concrete surfaces, particularly visible along the Solan bypass.

— The Kalka-Shimla highway has witnessed repeated disruptions during monsoon seasons. More than 128 landslides were recorded along the route in 2019 and 2023 alone, leading to prolonged road blockages and significant economic losses.

— According to NHAI estimates, natural disasters caused losses of nearly Rs 200 crore on national highway projects in Himachal Pradesh between January 2021 and July 2025. This includes losses of Rs 26.86 crore on the Parwanoo-Solan section of NH-5 and around Rs 171 crore on the Mandi-Palampur-Kiratpur highway corridor.

Do You Know:

— A landslide is a physical phenomenon in which a mass portion of rock, debris, or soil falls due to the influence of gravity. Landslides are one of the common geological hazards in hilly areas throughout the world.

— According to the World Health Organisation (WHO)-  Landslides occur when large masses of soil, rocks or debris move down a slope due to a natural phenomenon or human activity. Mudslides or debris flows are also a common type of fast-moving landslide.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Issue at a Glance | Landslides : 5 Key Questions You Must Know for Prelims and Mains

UPSC Prelims Practice Question Covering similar theme:

(4) Consider the following statements with reference to the slope drainage pipe system:

1. It involves constructing water collection points at the top of slopes connected to pipes and drains that channel rainwater to the bottom.

2. Its primary objective is to reduce surface runoff that can cause soil erosion and landslides.

3. It replaces all other slope stabilisation measures such as soil nailing, anchoring, and vegetation-based stabilisation.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

Describe the various causes and the effects of landslides. Mention the important components of the National Landslide Risk Management Strategy. (UPSC CSE 2021)

The Himalayas are highly prone to landslides.” Discuss the causes and suggest suitable measures of mitigation. (UPSC CSE 2016)

OPINION

How an IMD discovery in 1920s changed monsoon forecasts

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Indian and World Geography.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Important Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc., geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features (including water-bodies and ice-caps) and in flora and fauna and the effects of such changes.

What’s the ongoing story: Amitabh Sinha writes- “The El Niño phenomenon is fairly well known in India, thanks to widespread discussion in the media in connection with its impact on the Indian monsoon.”

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

— What is the Southern Oscillation and who discovered it?

— What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?

— How does ENSO affect the Indian monsoon?

— How did the understanding of ENSO improve monsoon forecasting?

— What is the Super ENSO phenomenon? How is it different from ENSO?

— Read about the India Meteorological Department.

Key Takeaways:

— “El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction playing out in the Pacific Ocean region that happens to be the biggest cause of year-on-year variations in global climate. It has profound impacts on weather events everywhere, including the Indian monsoon.”

— “What is much less known is that this global phenomenon, at least the atmospheric component of this ocean-atmosphere interaction, was first discovered by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in the early 1920s.”

— “It was British mathematician Sir Gilbert Walker, working as head of IMD, a position that was at that time described as Director General of Observatories, who had noticed the see-saw behaviour of air pressure between the east and west Pacific Ocean, something that became known as the Southern Oscillation, or SO.”

— “While working to develop a reliable forecast model for the Indian monsoon, Walker, who had a nearly 21-year tenure at IMD from 1904 to 1924,had decided to look at external influences, having realised that the monsoon was not an isolated phenomenon over the Indian region.”

— “Meticulously going through all the weather observation data that used to be collected at the time, Walker noticed three large systems, two in the Pacific and one in the Atlantic Ocean, in which the atmospheric pressures periodically oscillated between being very high and very low at the opposite ends. The Southern Oscillation was so named because it was relatively south of the other two, which were called the North Atlantic Oscillation and North Pacific Oscillation.”

— “He found the Southern Oscillation to be the most persistent and also the most likely to have an impact on the Indian monsoon.”

— “Decades later, Norwegian-American meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes linked the Southern Oscillation to the periodic warming and cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, or El Niño. Natives of the western coastline of South America, in the countries of Peru and Ecuador, were aware of this periodic change in sea surface temperatures for centuries. But it was Bjerknes who showed in the late 1960s that the two processes, the ocean phenomenon of El Niño and the atmospheric phenomenon of Southern Oscillation, formed a feedback loop in which one reinforced the other.”

— “This discovery gave the scientists their first understanding of this complete process. El Niño and La Niña, the two opposite phases of ENSO, are now known to influence every large-scale weather phenomenon in the world.”

— “In the El Niño phase, the equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America, gets warmer than normal, while in the La Niña phase, it gets cooler. El Niño has a general warming impact on the planet. It is known to suppress rainfall over the Indian and Australian region, including southeast Asia, but causes bountiful rains to happen over the North Americas. La Niña has opposing impacts.”

— “Walker’s discovery of the southern oscillation marked a major improvement in the scientific understanding of monsoon and resulted in greater scientific grounding of its forecasts. Before that, forecasts, issued since the establishment of IMD in the 1870s, relied heavily on statistical correlations.”

Do You Know:

— ENSO has three phases: warm (El Niño, Spanish for little boy), cool (La Niña, Spanish for little girl), and neutral. It occurs in irregular cycles of 2 to 7 years.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍UPSC Weekly Concepts Snapshot: Energy storage technologies, Bond Yield and ENSO

Previous year UPSC Prelims Question Covering similar theme:

(5) La Nina is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Nina different from EI Nino? (UPSC CSE, 2011)

1. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperature in equatorial Indian ocean whereas EI Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial pacific ocean.

2. EI Nino has adverse effect on the south-west monsoon of India, but La Nina has no effect on monsoon climate.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

ECONOMY

West Asia Conflict: How pact with Oman cushions India’s trade

Syllabus:

Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance.

Mains Examination: General Studies-II: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

What’s the ongoing story: The India-Oman free trade agreement (FTA) signed in December last year, entered into force on June 1, at a time when the sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering wider macroeconomic worries. Of particular concern is India’s high dependence on imported fuel, fertilisers, and key industrial input items

Key Points to Ponder:

— What is the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)?

— What is the status of trade between India and Oman?

— What is the significance of the India-Oman CEPA?

— What is India’s West Asia strategy?

— What is the strategic importance of Oman in India’s West Asia policy?

— Why is diversification of trade and energy routes important for India?

— How do geopolitical conflicts in West Asia affect India’s economy and trade?

— Map work: Location of Oman, Port of Salalah, Port of Duqm, Strait of Hormuz, UAE, Khor Fakkan and Fujairah ports.

Key Takeaways:

— While higher freight costs continue to impede trade flows through West Asia, the deal with Oman could offer India a breather. Here is why.

— By virtue of its location just outside the Strait of Hormuz, Oman is increasingly being seen as a critical gateway if the US-Iran conflict continues.

Location of Oman.

— Trade experts pointed out that, unlike most Gulf countries, which rely on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, much of Oman’s coastline is located outside the strait, on the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. This allows major ports such as the Port of Salalah and Port of Duqm to remain accessible even when traffic through the strait is disrupted.

— Ties with Oman would also be important for India as its trade with the neighbouring UAE has taken a steep hit due to the West Asia crisis. After signing a trade deal with the UAE in 2022, Abu Dhabi emerged as one of India’s largest trade partners in the Gulf region, with overall trade crossing $100 billion during the last financial year.

— However, overall trade with the UAE declined by 35% in April this year. This is primarily because only two UAE ports, Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, have managed to avoid operational difficulties amid the blockade.

— Trade data also showed that while commerce with West Asian countries has come under pressure since the Strait of Hormuz was closed on March 2, trade with Oman has picked up. Energy imports from Iraq, Qatar and the UAE declined sharply in April, but shipments from Oman jumped 246.42% to $1.48 billion last month, compared to $429.58 million in April last year.

— Under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Oman has granted zero-duty access across 98% of tariff lines, covering 99% of India’s exports, boosting prospects for products ranging from petroleum goods to machinery and steel.

— Currently, 15.33% of India’s export value and 11.34% of tariff lines (2022–24 average) enter the Omani market at zero duty under the Most Favoured Nation regime of the World Trade Organisation. With the CEPA, Indian exports to Oman that earlier faced duties of up to 5%, valued at around $3.64 billion, are expected to gain significantly, the ministry had said at the time of signing.

Do You Know:

— In FY 2024–25, India-Oman bilateral trade stood at $10.61 billion. Before the war, India’s trade had been heavily dependent on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The two countries accounted for 8.4% and 2.7% of India’s total exports, respectively, in FY25, while Oman’s share stood at just 0.9%. On the import side, the UAE and Saudi Arabia comprised 8.8% and 4.2% of India’s total imports, with Oman again at 0.9%, Commerce Ministry data showed.

— Oman largely exports crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, and chemical inputs such as methyl alcohol and anhydrous ammonia, along with petroleum coke. Indian exports to Oman, largely consisting of machinery and parts, have doubled in the last five years — from $3 billion to $6 billion. New Delhi’s top exports, apart from naphtha and petrol, include aircraft, rice, iron and steel articles, beauty and personal care products, and ceramics.

Other Important Articles Covering the same topic:

📍India-Oman pact holds promises for farms, factories and small businesses

📍Looking to expand market access, India inks free trade pact with Oman

Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme:

The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyse India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian countries. (UPSC CSE 2017)

ALSO IN NEWS

• US tops India’s LNG basket in May, imports recover to pre-war levels

With the heavy disruption in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from key suppliers Qatar and the UAE, the US emerged as India’s largest source of super-chilled gas in May, followed by Nigeria, Oman, and Angola, as New Delhi’s LNG imports recovered to pre-war levels despite the surge in international LNG prices.

India depends on LNG imports to meet about half of its natural gas requirement, and about 60% of those imports came through the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from Qatar, and also the UAE. The two Gulf countries are major LNG exporters at the global level as well.

• Verify nationality of 2,860 people for their deportation, India tells Bangladesh

As the bordering states of West Bengal and Assam intensify their crackdown on illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, the Indian government has requested the neighbouring country to verify the nationality of 2,860 people so that they can be sent back.

This assumes significance at a time when hundreds of Bangladeshi immigrants, who are reported to have entered India illegally, have flocked to the borders in the recent weeks, as reported by The Indian Express.

• Govt mandates standard edible oil packaging sizes

The Department of Consumer Affairs has prescribed standard pack sizes for edible oils under the Legal Metrology framework, a move aimed at helping consumers compare prices across brands and make informed purchasing decisions.

The department has amended its Standard Operating Procedure (SoP) for determination of net quantity and standard pack sizes of edible oils and fats, giving manufacturers, packers and importers a three-month transition period to comply with the new norms, an official statement said.

• Spot market gas purchases by power plants jump over 300%

With the Iran war hitting the imports under long-term contracts, gas-based power generators in India have sharply jacked up natural gas purchases from the spot-market this summer to fill the void.

Between April 1 and May 26, power-sector entities purchased 44,67,850 million Metric Million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) of natural gas from the spot market.

PRELIMS ANSWER KEY

1. (c)    2. (c)    3. (b)    4. (a)    5. (d)

Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.

🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2026. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at [email protected]🚨