People loved moving to Tasmania during the pandemic — but not anymore

Between 2016 and 2021, Tasmania was the place to be, or move to.

Almost 50,000 people were added to the state's population in that time.

That may not sound like much compared with bigger states, but during that period, Tasmania outpaced the nation on rates of population growth.

Since then, it's been more subdued.

In September 2025, Tasmania's annual growth rate was only 0.3 per cent, the lowest in the country.

"Tasmania's population growth rate is actually the lowest it's been this century,"

demographer Lisa Denny said.

The Centre for Population is predicting by 2028-29, Tasmania will be the first state in Australia to be in natural decline, where deaths outnumber births.

More young adults are expected to continue to leave Tasmania, and overseas migration will be the main driver of modest population growth in the future, according to the centre.

"When a large majority of our young people in Tasmania are actually born overseas and likely to be on temporary visas in Tasmania, it's unlikely that they are going to be in family formation decision-making processes," Dr Denny said.

Tasmanian Treasury papers warn that if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy and "exacerbate existing challenges faced by the state, including skill shortages and the ageing population."

Like Melbourne in the 90s

For every Tasmanian arrival and departure, there is an individual reason behind the move.

Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner came to Tasmania in 2018 with plans to "buckle down".

They arrived from Moreton Island in Queensland with $500, a car and no qualifications.

"We just had to work our way up from the bottom,"

Mr Wagner said.

Determined to get into the housing market, Mr Wagner took on an adult apprenticeship in welding and flipped mountain bikes on the side.

"We bought the cheapest house we could possibly afford and basically just made it work," he said.

The couple now have two kids and said while accessing childcare in Burnie was a problem, overall, their move to Tasmania had been a success story.

"On the mainland, you would not have been able to do this,"

Ms Willemsen said.

The couple describe the small city of Burnie as like growing up in Melbourne in the 90s.

"There's milk bars on corners, there's active footy clubs, everyone says hello," Mr Wagner said.

Sunshine and job opportunities: why people leave

On the flip side, like many young Tasmanians, 22-year-old Ellie Warmbrunn has left the state.

She's working and studying on Queensland's Gold Coast.

"I'm doing journalism and creative writing and I also work up here as a model," she said.

Ms Warmbrunn said she was enjoying the Queensland lifestyle — and would be there "for the foreseeable future".

"You can have a great morning of study and then you can just head down to the beach, have a swim and you're always out in the sunshine, really."

Ms Warmbrunn said while she missed her family in Tasmania, she had no plans to return at this stage.

"I think I will be up here for the foreseeable future as I develop my career; there's just a lot more scope."

Busy roads, housing shortages — it doesn't feel like a population slump

Even though Tasmania's population growth has plateaued since 2021, the state has seen a rise in peak-hour traffic congestion and outer suburban growth.

In the last five years, the municipality of Clarence, in the south, has increased by 3,350 people, and Brighton, north of Hobart, by 2,030.

Meander Valley, in the state's north, has increased by 1,140 people.

Because Tasmania's population growth is mostly driven by interstate and overseas migration, rather than births, this has increased the demand for housing.

"And when you look at what's happening in the short-stay accommodation sector and losing whole houses to non-permanent occupancy, then that is also contributing to increased pressure on our housing," Dr Denny said.

While some parts of the state are growing, other local government areas recorded population decline.

Treasury papers state that in the last five years, Hobart declined by 350 people because of lower numbers of international students and Glenorchy, north of Hobart, lost 200 people.

Smaller, older population a risk to the economy

Tasmania's Treasury is predicting modest population growth over the next few years.

Financial YearChange in the year

(persons)

2025-263,123 (0.4 per cent)2026-273,150 (0.5 per cent)2027-283,250 (0.6 per cent)

Slower population growth means less payroll tax, less stamp duty and less consumer spending, which means less GST.

"Which is a bigger source of revenue for the Tasmanian government than it is proportionally for any other part of the country, except the Northern Territory," said independent economist Saul Eslake.

Population growth alone is not the only way to grow the economy and productivity improvements can help — something Mr Eslake said "Tasmania has been pretty bad at".

Tasmanian Treasurer Eric Abetz said the economy had strengthened despite recent low population growth.

"We have been able to show a 1.1 per cent growth in our gross state product per capita," he said.

On the one hand, a slower-growing population could limit the demand on government services.

But on the other hand, Tasmania's ageing population will add to healthcare spending and skill shortages.

By 2050, it is predicted that the median age of a Tasmanian will be around 48 years, and 28 per cent of the population will be over 65.

Mr Abetz said the state was already facing struggles associated with an older population.

"Three wards of patients are stranded [in Tasmanian hospitals] because they can't get into an aged care facility," he said.

He said the problem was costing the state $100 million a year and he urged the federal government to do more to address it.

What's the plan for attracting more people to Tasmania?

Mr Abetz said that despite slower population growth, the state was on track to reach its target of 650,000 people by 2050.

Treasury papers suggest lower population growth could improve housing affordability, which in turn could lift interstate migration.

It also states that the construction of the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart could be a drawcard for young workers from across Australia.

But Lisa Denny said Tasmania would be competing for workers with other big construction projects, "for example, the Brisbane Olympic Games infrastructure projects".

Saul Eslake believes basic government services need to be improved in order to change Tasmania's population trajectory

"If we want to arrest the outflow of people from Tasmania and especially younger people … then we need to fix up our education and health systems,"

Mr Eslake said.

Dr Denny would like to reframe the way decision makers think about an ageing population.

"The longer we're able to keep people active and productive in the workforce, that's an opportunity we need to capture," she said.

"It also provides opportunities for young people to enter the workforce in Tasmania."