Iran weekly briefing: Iran and Israel's escalation makes Lebanon a tinderbox about to blow

Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Jerusalem here.

It’s now 100 days since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the regime in Tehran retaliated across the region, plunging the Middle East into chaos.

Here's what you should know now:

The Israeli military says it has detected two waves of Iranian missiles launched at the north of the country. Warning sirens sounded in communities across northern Israel.

Earlier, Israel launched strikes on Dahiyeh, the Hezbollah stronghold suburb in Beirut's south, a week after the US President intervened and seemingly convinced Benjamin Netanyahu to hold fire. It followed another weekend of fighting inside southern Lebanon between Israeli forces and the militant group, with warning sirens ringing out across communities in Israel's north due to Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.

Donald Trump told American network NBC, in an interview recorded on Friday, he would not be demanding Lebanon be part of any short-term deal with Tehran. He added he would also not be giving in to calls from Tehran to immediately unfreeze Iranian assets as a result of the negotiations. He suggested that it could happen after an agreement “if they behave”.

The comments followed further Iranian and US strikes across the Gulf region. Iran launched more missiles and drones towards Kuwait and Bahrain, countries that host American military bases, including the US Navy's regional headquarters. The US also launched attacks on Iranian radar facilities and drones it said were threatening ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Reuters news agency reported the US was lobbying countries that are members of the international nuclear watchdog to demand Iran release details of its nuclear facilities. A draft resolution called on the 35 nations that sit on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors, which includes Australia and is chaired by an Australian diplomat, to receive "detailed information" about the damage to those nuclear facilities and the enriched uranium stored there.

Here's why it matters:

This would be the first attack on Israel by Iran since the ceasefire was announced in early April. The Israeli military has ordered schools across the country to be closed as a safety precaution.

The White House has said that US President Donald Trump has been briefed on this escalation. Fox News reported Mr Trump told a reporter that his message to Iran is to get back to the negotiating table and make a deal.

Iran wants an end to Israeli strikes against its proxy Hezbollah, as a precondition for any peace deal with the US. But President Trump is already saying he won't be pushing it.

The situation in Lebanon is of grave concern, with the humanitarian crisis it's fuelled continuing to threaten lives across the financially stricken country. In the debate over Lebanon being a bargaining chip in a broader game of negotiations, that personal toll has often been wrongfully relegated to lesser prominence.

Aside from that, it's also fuelling a feverish political debate in Israel as the country's politicians jostle ahead of an election due by October.

The renewed ceasefire, announced by the US, Israeli and Lebanese governments last week, demanded that Hezbollah stop attacking Israel. But it was almost doomed to fail given the conduct of the group, considered a terrorist organisation in many countries, including Australia, to this point, can't be considered a surprise.

That mix of factors makes Lebanon a tinderbox, and it could blow.

Here's what to watch in the days ahead:

Remember back in March and April, when the US president and his top brass kept saying that the war in Iran would be a quick operation?

"We could say four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three. Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo," Secretary of Defense (or War, as the Trump administration calls the role) Pete Hegseth said in the first week of March.

It's now the end of day 100 of the war. While the situation is very different to what was experienced in those early days, with seemingly relentless barrages of missiles and drones replaced by intermittent flurries of strikes and counterstrikes, the war is still ongoing.

Even the definitions in this war are shifting. President Trump was asked late last week what he saw a ceasefire as being, following missile and drone attacks on countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain. "In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner," he quipped.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Mr Trump had told aides he wouldn't return to all-out war unless US troops were killed in that "moderate" fighting.

While there is little doubt in the military might of the United States, the ability of the oppressive Iranian regime to withstand the pressure from Washington is shining through. Its power, often exercised through brutal crackdowns on dissent within its own population, is now being directed into the negotiations on a deal to end the war with the United States, through mediators Pakistan.

The demands it is making are being rebuffed by Mr Trump, such as the unfreezing of Iranian assets. On Sunday, he told American network NBC that that would only be considered after an agreement. "If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking," he said.

One hundred days is the latest milestone to pass without a deal. President Trump's trip to China was the first, with suggestions he wanted it all wrapped up before heading to Beijing.

Next is the start of the FIFA men's World Cup, co-hosted by the US, this week. Iran is one of the teams competing, with their opening match on June 16 against our Kiwi cousins.

Perhaps Mr Trump is learning that starting a war is much easier than finishing it, despite his repeated insistence on being the world's greatest peacemaker.

Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time next week.