How BJP’s third Rajya Sabha candidate in Madhya Pradesh is testing Congress unity

The BJP’s decision to field a third Rajya Sabha candidate from Madhya Pradesh has transformed what was expected to be a routine election into a test of Congress unity, exposing simmering discontent within the Opposition party over the nomination of senior leader Meenakshi Natarajan.

On paper, the arithmetic for the third seat still favours the Congress. In political terms, however, the BJP appears less interested in winning the seat outright than in forcing Congress to publicly demonstrate cohesion at a time when sections of its state leadership remain privately unhappy with the high command’s choice, functionaries from both parties said.

By nominating Mahesh Kewat for the third seat, the BJP has effectively shifted the contest away from numbers and towards loyalty. “The BJP knows that arithmetic is difficult. But elections like these are often about exposing contradictions within rival parties,” said a senior BJP leader from Bhopal. “Even if the Congress wins, the BJP would consider it a success if it can make internal dissatisfaction visible.”

Parties gear up

Both parties have now shifted into election management mode. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has been personally involved in discussions with senior BJP leaders following the decision to field Kewat, asking party leaders to stay put in Bhopal till polling, which is scheduled for June 18. The Congress, meanwhile, has convened legislature party meetings, brought MLAs to Bhopal and enlisted leaders across rival factions — from former CMs Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh to state Congress chief Jitu Patwari and Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, Umang Singhar — to publicly endorse Natarajan.

The Rajya Sabha election is being held for three seats. Along with Kewat, the BJP has nominated Tarun Chugh and Rajneesh Agrawal.

Under the proportional representation system used for Rajya Sabha elections, candidates require a fixed quota of votes based on the Assembly’s effective strength.

The BJP currently enjoys a commanding 163-seat majority in the 230-member Assembly, while Congress remains the principal opposition with 66 seats . The ruling party has the numbers to comfortably secure two seats as each candidate would require 58 first-preference votes to win. The third seat, however, has become politically significant because Congress possesses just enough strength to remain in contention, though with little room for error.

That narrow margin is precisely what appears to have encouraged the BJP’s strategy.

For days before Kewat’s candidature was formally announced, senior BJP leaders like state Urban Development minister Kailash Vijayvargiya had been publicly hinting at the possibility of a third candidate.

The comments immediately triggered speculation in political circles because they came amid growing discussion within Congress over how Natarajan had emerged as the party’s choice.

Several senior Congress leaders and their supporters had hoped the high command would select a candidate with a stronger organisational base in Madhya Pradesh.

Natarajan nomination fuels discomfort

The first signs of discomfort over Natarajan’s candidature surfaced from within the Congress itself. Senior party leader Naresh Gyanchandani publicly questioned the leadership’s decision to nominate Natarajan in place of veteran leader Singh, warning that the move could create conditions for cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha election. “There has been a major oversight in the candidate for Rajya Sabha…there is a risk of cross voting here, if Singh had been renominated, the seat would have been safe,” the leader said.

Although the Congress leadership swiftly closed ranks behind its official candidate, the remarks offered the BJP an opening to reinforce its argument that the nomination had not been universally welcomed within the state unit.

Congress leaders privately acknowledge that the arithmetic is not as comfortable as the headline figures suggest. The unresolved disqualification proceedings involving Bina MLA Nirmala Sapre, who has aligned herself with the BJP, have created uncertainty around the party’s effective strength in the Assembly.

While few leaders were willing to publicly oppose the decision, several Congress functionaries privately acknowledged that there was disappointment among aspirants and their supporters.

“The issue is not Meenakshiji personally. Most leaders respect her integrity,” said a Congress leader familiar with internal discussions. “The concern was that the state unit was not adequately consulted and that local political considerations were overlooked.”

Another senior Congress functionary said some leaders viewed the nomination as an example of the central leadership prioritising organisational loyalty over state-level political equations.

The Congress response over the past week suggests the party leadership recognises the challenge.

State Congress president Jitu Patwari has repeatedly insisted that all party legislators stand united behind Natarajan. Singhar has also publicly backed her candidature, emphasising that the party would vote collectively. The leadership has convened meetings of legislators and senior leaders, projecting an image of consensus and discipline.

Natarajan’s political career has largely been associated with the Congress high command. A former president of the Youth Congress and later a Congress general secretary, she has long been regarded as part of Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi’s trusted circle. Her reputation within the party is that of an organisationally disciplined leader with a relatively clean public image.

Yet, that national standing does not automatically translate into influence among the current generation of Congress legislators in Madhya Pradesh.

Unlike Nath or Singh, who continue to command identifiable factions within the party, Natarajan does not possess a large support base among sitting MLAs.

That distinction lies at the heart of the BJP’s calculation. Party strategists believe that Rajya Sabha elections offer a rare opportunity to test whether legislators will prioritise party directives over factional preferences.

Unlike a heavyweight BJP leader whose candidature would have been interpreted purely as an attempt to win a seat, Kewat represents a broader social message.

A prominent leader from the Kewat community, he brings OBC and fisherfolk representation into the contest at a time when social coalition building remains central to electoral politics in Madhya Pradesh. “The selection of Kewat serves multiple purposes. It allows the party to strengthen outreach among backward communities, project social inclusion and simultaneously create pressure on Congress,” said a senior BJP leader.