Portugal faces risk of power cuts this year, warns DGEG

Portugal could face power outages for several hours a year unless significant improvements are made to the operation of the national electricity system.

This is the message from a recent report by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG), cited by Expresso, which validates simulations carried out by the National Electricity Network (REN) and concludes that the country will not be able to meet the minimum reliability levels required for the electricity grid in any of the scenarios analysed for the next 10 years.

The conclusions come more than a year after the blackout of April 28, 2025 – an episode that exposed weaknesses in the national electricity infrastructure, and forced the progressive restoration of the grid connection over approximately 12 hours.

According to the report, the problems identified on that occasion have not disappeared and continue to represent a significant risk to the security of energy supply.

The document’s main concern relates to the growing difficulty in ensuring that available production can meet the demand for electricity – especially in a context where energy consumption continues to increase (viz the current focus on building data centres).

The Energy Services Regulatory Authority (ERSE) currently sets a maximum expected deficit of 1.45 hours per year between electricity supply and demand as a reference. However, the projections analysed by DGEG point to a much more serious scenario.

According to the report, the Portuguese electricity system could register a deficit of 12.8 hours per year this year – a value almost nine times greater than the limit considered acceptable by sector regulation.

In practice, this means that there may be periods when the available energy will not be sufficient to meet all demand, forcing the adoption of network management measures that may include power cuts.

None of scenarios meet the minimum reliability standards

One of the most worrying aspects highlighted by the report is the fact that none of the scenarios evaluated allow for reaching the minimum reliability standards defined for the national electricity system over the next decade.

The analysis considers different perspectives on the evolution of the sector, from a more conservative trajectory to a more ambitious approach. However, even in the most favorable scenarios, DGEG concludes that significant risks of insufficient capacity to meet future electricity demand persist.

This reality reinforces warnings about the need to accelerate investments and operational changes that allow for increased network robustness and ensure security of supply.

Source material: Expresso/ Executive Digest

Natasha Donn

Journalist for the Portugal Resident.