ENERGY WATCH: Mideast flare-up

June 8 :

Breaking down what matters today in global energy markets

By Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist

The shaky two-month-long ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran was rattled again on Sunday when Iran launched a salvo of missiles at Israel over its attacks in Beirut, prompting Israel to launch its own attacks in Iran. Israel’s response clearly went against the wishes of President Donald Trump who keeps insisting that a peace deal is very close, with little evidence of significant progress so far.

The Israeli military said it had carried out multiple strikes across Iran, including a petrochemical plant in Mahshahr. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it responded by targeting a similar plant in the city of Haifa in northern Israel. For now, there have been no reports of Iranian attacks against energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Oil markets jumped higher in response to the flare-up. Brent crude rose to over $98 a barrel, before paring back gains after Iran announced it had ended its operation against Israel. In any case, oil prices are well below the recent high of $118 reached after the start of fighting in March, comfortably within the range of the past two decades.

So, to recap, the biggest oil supply shock in decades is in its fourth month and there is no resolution to the conflict in sight, yet the market remains rangebound and surprisingly calm. This disconnect reflects an uncomfortable reality: the biggest drivers of today’s energy market are a host of unknowns. More on this in my latest column.

In other news:

• Europe's push to rebuild natural gas inventories is shaped mainly by global LNG flows and storage targets. But another key underappreciated constraint lies farther south - in the Alpine reservoirs that underpin Italy's hydroelectric system, writes ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire.

• I enjoyed this one - a wealthy cohort of CEOs, celebrities and sports stars is defying soaring jet fuel prices and flying by private jet in greater numbers than ever ‌before, to glitzy events from the Monaco Grand Prix to the Cannes film festival.

As ever, don’t hesitate to contact me at or follow me on LinkedIn with any questions or thoughts.

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(By Ron Bousso)