Will the FIFA World Cup be the economic bonanza US cities were promised?

Global sporting events like the FIFA World Cup are often pitched to host cities as economic jackpots. It’s a promise fuelled by an influx of tourists, packed hotels, new jobs and billions in spending.

But as the games approach, skyrocketing ticket prices, weaker-than-expected hotel bookings and broader economic uncertainty are raising questions about whether the event will deliver the windfall many cities anticipated.

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For international travellers, United States President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda has become a deterrent. In April, groups including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) issued warnings for foreign visitors headed to the US to watch the World Cup.

“The Trump administration’s rising authoritarianism and increasing violence pose serious risk to all,” they said, adding, visitors should “exercise caution and have an emergency contingency plan when travelling to and within the United States”.

Fans are also facing confusion about visas. The administration waived its visa bond programme that requires visitors from 50 countries to pay a $15,000 bond deposit. In May, it dropped the requirement for those who have tickets to a World Cup game. However, amid reported delays in visa processing, travellers might not make it in time, or could still be barred from entering the country.

Domestic travellers are also feeling squeezed. Economic pressures, driven by a stagnant job market and higher prices of essentials such as petrol, are weighing on discretionary spending. Gas prices now stand at $4.16 per gallon (3.78 litres), according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), compared with $2.98 per gallon on February 28th when the US and Israel first struck Iran.

Together, those pressures are dampening demand for travel linked to the FIFA World Cup, threatening to undercut the economic boom that organisers and host cities once expected.

“There’s less appetite to travel and pay high prices for tickets. I think there are also some geopolitical issues that are certainly making people more wary about travelling to the US and spending money in the US,” Mike Edwards, professor of sports management at North Carolina State University, told Al Jazeera.

Tourism turmoil?

With just a few days before kick-off, 80 percent of hotel bookings are below expectations, with as many as 70 percent of respondents citing visa barriers and geopolitical turmoil as a major reason for weaker travel demand, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association.

In New York City which will host the final, bookings are at roughly 65 percent of what respondents expected. In Seattle, Washington, 80 percent of hotels are lagging behind typical summer booking levels. That is without accounting for the tourist boom that FIFA had promised.

It is not just US host cities seeing weaker demand. Across the border in Canada, bookings in Vancouver, British Columbia, have also fallen short of expectations.

“Despite its global profile, FIFA has not generated the broad hotel demand many expected,” the British Columbia Hotel Association said last month.

Still, some city officials and business leaders are not overly concerned that the slowdown will be as severe as early forecasts suggested. New York City officials told Al Jazeera they expect bookings to return to near-normal summer levels by the time the tournament begins. Business as usual, however, is not what a global sporting event promises.

Some of the biggest players in hospitality are still expecting demand in line with other major sporting events. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky struck an optimistic tone during the company’s May 7 first-quarter earnings call, saying Airbnb expects more bookings for the tournament than for any event in the company’s nearly 18-year history.

Al Jazeera found listings near the stadium in Dallas around the June 14 game going for close to $700 on the low end for a two-night stay. Listings in Philadelphia ahead of a June 19 game were priced at nearly $300 on the low end for two nights. Ahead of the finals on July 19 in the New York City metropolitan area, near MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, nearby Airbnbs were listed for more than $5,600.

“Bookings are picking up because of the shorter lead time if people are coming in domestically. Airlines seem to be doing well, but I think drive markets are going to be huge here, too,” Allison O’Connor, vice president of communications at the United States Travel Association, told Al Jazeera.

Air travel is also showing a pattern of increased demand, despite rising fuel prices and reduced flights for major US carriers. Bookings to Houston — a hub for United Airlines and Southwest Airlines — and Dallas — a hub for American Airlines and Southwest — surged 38 percent and 42 percent respectively, compared with the same period last year, according to market analytics firm Sojern. Both cities will be hosting some games.

Domestic travellers account for nearly 70 percent of all flight bookings, according to the Sojern data. Travellers from foreign countries trail far behind, with Canada making up just over 6 percent of bookings and the United Kingdom accounting for 4.8 percent.

“It’s entirely possible the missed opportunity is from international inbound business,” O’Connor said.

That will hurt spending because domestic tourists typically spend less than their international counterparts. Ahead of the World Cup, the US Travel Association suggests that global travellers will spend more than usual, reaching an average of more than $5,000 per person, which is more than $200 higher than domestic travellers.

Ticket prices in flux

This all comes despite heightened ticket prices that supporters around the world have slammed as cost-prohibitive for the sport’s most dedicated fans. In December, Football Supporters Europe — an organisation for fans — called the price surge, which at the time was at least seven times higher than prices for the 2022 games in Qatar, “extortionate” and a “monumental betrayal.”

Prices have remained high. Average prices for nosebleed-section tickets to early games in Dallas, for example, are well over $800 at the low end. Tickets for the final match on July 19 are “not available”, according to FIFA’s website. However, Ticketmaster listings showed prices starting at roughly $9,200 a ticket and going up to as much as $43,553.

The heightened price tag is a result of dynamic pricing — in which prices rise based on demand.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino defended the strategy at the Milken Institute Conference earlier this year.

“We are in the market in which entertainment is the most developed in the world, so we have to apply market rates,” he said then.

On the resale market, prices have dropped 11 percent in the last month, according to TicketData, which tracks resale ticket prices.

Late last month, Attorneys General in both New York and New Jersey announced inquiries into FIFA ticket prices and pricing strategy.

“No one should be manipulated into paying sky-high prices for seats, and fans should be able to trust that the tickets they purchase will be the ones they receive,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement announcing the subpoena.

Swaying locals

In May, Zohran Mamdani announced that the city would offer $50 tickets to 1,000 New Yorkers through a lottery system. The city says the tickets will be evenly distributed among residents of the five boroughs. The tickets available to New Yorkers will not be for the final, but for earlier stages.

Still, the deal is a drop in the bucket. MetLife Stadium holds 82,500 spectators.

For many New Yorkers, tickets remain out of reach — part of the complaint outlined in the subpoena from the state attorney general’s office.

“New Yorkers have been waiting years for the World Cup to come to their backyard, and they deserve a fair shot at affordable tickets,” James said.

On Monday, Mayor Mamdani and New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a joint effort in partnership with the group Global Citizen to organise a watch party in Central Park for 50,000 people for the final on July 19 .

“You shouldn’t have to spend tens of thousands of dollars to be part of the World Cup. Under our administration, you don’t have to,” the mayor said in a release announcing the party.

In cities like Atlanta, Georgia, nonprofits are trying to build excitement around the World Cup. In April, Play Fair ATL, a local nonprofit that advocates for equity surrounding major events hosted in the city, organised ahead of the tournament what it called “The People’s Cup”. The goal was to give people who might not otherwise have access to expensive tickets an opportunity to engage with the sport.

Other cities have used the tournament to fund new or ongoing infrastructure projects.

“In many cases, hosting a mega event helps make that happen. Otherwise, those projects might get done over a much longer period of time or get sidetracked altogether,” Edwards said.

In Houston, Texas, the city launched what it calls the Green Corridor, connecting a network of hike-and-bike trails and public transit routes — including several lines of the city’s light rail system — throughout the urban core.

It is not the first time America’s fourth-largest city has used a major sporting event as a catalyst for infrastructure development. Houston officially launched its light rail system in conjunction with the 2004 Super Bowl. At the time, the line ran from the city’s football stadium in the south through several dense corridors, including downtown and the Texas Medical Center complex.

Similarly, Kansas City has made smaller-scale transit upgrades ahead of the games. While the city already had a streetcar system, it opened a nearly mile-long extension on May 18 .

The city is also boosting bus services during the World Cup by renting 215 buses to increase frequency over a 32-day period. The mayor hopes the upgrades will help drive long-term improvements to public transit access.

“I think we’ll get a good test case for how we can do it,” Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas told Al Jazeera.

“How do you get long-term sustainable funding? We move from a several hundred million-dollar question to a multi-billion-dollar question involving jurisdictions that I don’t necessarily run. I would love it if the suburbs, for example, and the state of Kansas said tomorrow that they had decided to invest a certain amount into fixed public transit throughout the community long term. They have not done that.”

Kansas City’s plans, however, also have caused controversy. Last year, the city advanced a proposal that included opening a jail as part of a broader effort to build a larger, more permanent detention facility which organisations that advocate for the rights of unhoused people have suggested will be used to keep the city’s homeless population out of sight, an allegation that Lucus questioned.

“It is not something that just hopped out as soon as we had the World Cup award. I think what you are seeing is the fact that we continue governing. We continue having a city that is dynamic,” Lucas said.