Schumer vs. Sanders: a fight for the Democratic Party’s identity

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For much of this year, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has tried to project an image of the Democratic Party that is still run from the center, propping up establishment-approved congressional candidates in the hopes of retaking the majority come November.

But a string of progressive primary results and a wave of endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has seemingly threatened Schumer’s plans, even before they had the chance to fully pan out. Indeed, Schumer’s grip on the party is slipping, and it’s become quite clear that a leftward shift is already well underway.

In Maine, for one, Schumer threw his weight behind Gov. Janet Mills (D) to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), whereas Sanders endorsed the now-Democratic nominee Graham Platner.

Despite Platner’s slew of scandals — including abusive behavior toward past partners, reports of inappropriate communications while married and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol — he managed to prevail. He performed so well that Mills decided to drop out of the race, ultimately handing Platner the nomination on primary night, where he received more than 70 percent of the vote.

Platner’s victory, and in turn, Mills’s conspicuous defeat, had several Senate Democrats questioning Schumer’s recruiting strategy. Some had been urging him to stay out of highly contested primaries across the country.

Unfortunately for the establishment, Sanders may have already done the work for him. In Michigan, Sanders has thrown his support to Abdul El-Sayed. Hasan Piker, a left-wing influencer whose comments many argue cross the line into antisemitism, is backing El-Sayed and has appeared alongside him in Detroit as part of his “Fighting Oligarchy” tour.

The progressive pair framed the Senate race explicitly as a referendum on “the Democratic establishment, which is significantly dominated by big-money interests.”

With El-Sayed as the current frontrunner — he leads his fellow Democrats by double-digits with slightly more than one-quarter of the vote (28 percent) — Democrats now run the risk of losing the open Senate seat to former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In fact, additional polling in Michigan shows that El-Sayed’s potential candidacy gives Rogers the best chance at snagging the seat out of the three Democrats vying for the nomination. The other two are Rep. Haley Stevens (D) — whom Schumer recently backed — and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D).

Sanders has also made a slate of endorsements nationwide for U.S. House. In particular, his endorsement of New Jersey’s Adam Hamawy — a left-wing candidate who won his district’s crowded primary election by 14 points — speaks volumes to where the broader Democratic Party may be headed. Hamawy testified in 1995 in defense of later-convicted terrorist Omar Abdel-Rahman. He reportedly claimed that public remarks by Abdel-Rahman about “conquering the land of the infidels” had been taken “out of context.” Abdel-Rahman was convicted and died in prison almost a decade ago, serving a life sentence. This may be one of Sanders’s most radical endorsements to date.

In Pennsylvania, Sanders’s House counterpart Ocasio-Cortez loudly intervened in the state’s 3rd Congressional District, where state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Pa.) won the Democratic nomination with roughly 45 percent of the vote. Ocasio-Cortez’s backing was seen by many as the clearest sign yet that national progressives are rallying around candidates like Rabb, who was also endorsed by “Squad” members Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Summer Lee (D-Pa.).

To be clear, Sanders’s successes do not necessarily mean the establishment wing of the party is dead. Schumer-aligned candidates still remain on the ballot in multiple states, though many are locked in competitive primaries.

But the pattern is hard to ignore. When Sanders or Ocasio-Cortez intervene, their candidates perform well, sometimes even forcing the establishment’s chosen candidate out of the race entirely.

Taken together, it’s clear that the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be more than a fight over individual seats. Rather, they have become an early indicator of what the Democratic Party actually stands for — and more importantly, who gets to define it heading into 2028.

If El-Sayed joins Platner, Hamawy and Rabb in reaching the general election, Democrats will be testing whether unapologetically progressive candidates can win, especially in states like Michigan and Maine, or whether their far-left agenda hands Republicans an easy contrast on liberal extremism.

Regardless of the outcome, this year’s midterms will certainly reverberate well beyond November. A string of progressive wins would embolden the party’s left flank heading into a wide-open presidential primary come 2028, while a string of losses would give Schumer and the establishment fresh ammunition.

Nonetheless, it’s apparent that Democrats can and should no longer avoid this conversation, as the party’s path back to power — and its identity — will likely run directly through these very races.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”