Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal as soon as August, Kalshi traders speculate

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 11, 2026.

Amirhosein Khorgooi | ISNA | Via Reuters

Odds that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August surpassed 50% after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal with Iran on Sunday, which includes reopening the strait.

Chances that the strait's traffic will return to normal before August sit at 58% on Kalshi. The last time those odds were that high was in late May. Other markets also saw jumps, with a 75% probability that traffic will return to normal before the end of this year.

The higher odds come after Trump's announcement, in which he declared both sides had agreed to a "memorandum of understanding" and approved removing the U.S. naval blockade.

"Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" he wrote about the strait on Sunday's Truth Social post.

Trump later clarified the strait would open after a deal is signed on Friday, "for purposes of mine removal." Iranian state news agency Mehr also reported the strait would reopen under "Iranian arrangements."

Qatar asked for further clarity on Monday on "outstanding issues" between the countries, "including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

A key player excluded from the deal is Israel, the nation that collaborated with the U.S. to strike Iran on Feb. 28.

The confusion suggests why traders on Kalshi have avoided placing at least a 90% chance that the strait would before the end of this year.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the "end to the war" included Lebanon but on Monday, Israel said its defense force will continue to stay put in "security zones" in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria.

Vice President J.D. Vance told CNBC's "Squawk Box" the deal will open the strait without tolls for the long term.

"We're already seeing in the past 24 hours more traffic flow," he said on Monday. CNBC could not immediately verify this.

Iran and the U.S. are set to sign the peace deal on Friday in Geneva.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.