After US-Iran accord and oil-price plunge, analysts warn of ‘grey area’ for Chinese firms

As plunging oil prices signal broad market optimism following an initial deal between the United States and Iran, attention has turned to whether Chinese firms sanctioned for Iran-related business will see immediate relief, though analysts remain cautious.

“New purchases of Iranian oil ostensibly wouldn’t be subject to fresh sanctions, but at the same time, I imagine we won’t see a rush to lift existing sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

The market movement followed official announcements that Washington and Tehran had reached a preliminary accord to end their four-month war. A reported 14-point Persian-language draft memorandum of understanding showed the US committing to lift its maritime blockade, issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, and outline a pathway to broader sanctions relief – including primary and secondary measures – under a future final agreement.

The global oil market reacted swiftly, with Brent crude plunging more than 4 per cent on Monday to a three-month low, while analysts tempered expectations over the deal’s implementation and its implications for sanctioned Chinese firms.

“There is some strong optimism in ways that have concrete effects for, say, commodities flows and financial markets,” said Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia and global trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit, citing the paring of crude prices.

“So, there are reasons for optimism, but I still think we should be cautious about this now,” Marro said.