Live: RBA tipped to keep rates on hold as US-Iran deal sends stocks soaring

The Reserve Bank board will wrap up its two-day June meeting with a decision on interest rates at 2:30pm AEST.

The cash rate is widely forecast to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent, after three consecutive rate hikes this year.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran ceasefire deal buoyed sentiment among investors, with the Dow rallying to a record close on Wall Street.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:15am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:15am

RBA forecast to keep interest rates on hold at 2:30pm AEST

By Stephanie Chalmers

The Reserve Bank board will deliver its June interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEST.

That will be followed by a press conference from RBA governor Michele Bullock at 3:30pm.

We will have full coverage, market reaction and analysis here on the blog, so stick with us.

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Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:53am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:53am

Biggest moving stocks as Wall Street rallies

By Adelaide Miller

There were big numbers on Wall Street as US markets finished up Monday trading.

It followed a similar pattern to the ASX 200 yesterday, as both markets reacted to the news of a possible ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.

The S&P 500 finished the day up +1.7% to 7,554 points, with the Technology sector leading the way.

Here are the top movers, with data storage company Western Digital up +16%, miles ahead of DoorDash Inc, which also had massive gains of +11.6%.

Here are the bottom movers:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up +0.9% to 51,671 points, with Consumer Cyclicals leading the charge.

Here are the top movers, with Boeing up +4.5%.

And here are the bottom movers, with Chevron Corp down -3.6%.

Finally, the Nasdaq 100 finished the day up +3.1% to 30,544 points, with the Tech sector up +3.4%.

As for the top movers, Western Digital again lead the way with massive gains.

As for the bottom movers, the transport company Old Dominion Freight Line was down the bottom, down -3.4%.

Elon Musk's SpaceX also continued to climb. Here is a look at the stock's movement for Monday:

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:50am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:50am

Market snapshot

By Stephanie Chalmers

ASX futures: -1.1% to 8,827 points

Australian dollar: flat at 70.68 US cents

Wall Street: S&P 500 +1.7%, Dow +0.9%, Nasdaq +3.1%

Europe: Dax +1.1%, FTSE -0.4%, Eurostoxx +0.1%

Spot gold: +2.1% to $US4,305/ounce

Oil: Brent futures -4.2% to $US83.63/barrel, WTI futures -4.2% to $U81.31/barrel

Iron ore: flat at $US101.30/tonne

Bitcoin: -0.2% at $US66,366

Prices current at around 7:45am AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:44am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:44am

💬How are you feeling about interest rates right now?

By Stephanie Chalmers

The Reserve Bank lifted interest rates in February, March and May, so every meeting of the year thus far.

Today, expectations are overwhelmingly for rates to remain on hold.

And since the last RBA meeting, forecasts have shifted towards the central bank leaving rates on hold for the foreseeable future, and some prominent economists now tipping the next move to be down.

Whether you have a mortgage, are renting, saving, hoping to buy, living on retirement income, or just trying to manage the cost of living, we'd like to hear from you.

How will you feel today if interest rates remain on hold?

Join the conversation by leaving a comment above.

Key Event

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:41am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:41am

Is it a buyers' strike on the property market?

By Adelaide Miller

Potentially some bad news for real estate agents and those in a rush to sell a property.

Data from Cotality shows final auction clearance rates dropped to about 43% at the first weekend after the May 12 budget.

Zooming out, capital city sales fell almost 17% from May 2025 to May 2026, as cities across the country see a cooling in the value of house prices, and in some cases, like Sydney and Melbourne, a decline in value.

Interest rate hikes, geopolitical uncertainty, and federal budget announcements have created the perfect storm for these numbers.

You can read the full piece from Hanan Dervisevic below:

Key Event

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:26am

Tue 16 Jun 2026 at 7:26am

Dow climbs to record close as US-Iran deal buoys stocks

By Stephanie Chalmers

Good morning, and welcome to another day on markets. And happy RBA day to all those who celebrate/observe/mourn interest rate movements (or lack thereof).

As the Australian and Asian sessions indicated yesterday, the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran buoyed stocks, with the positive sentiment extending into Wall Street trade.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 468 points or 0.9% to a record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 3.1%, while the broader S&P 500 index added 1.7%.

Helping the Nasdaq was a huge rally for SpaceX shares, up 19.6% on what was their second day of trade.

Yesterday, it was revealed Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting had taken a reported $1.4 billion stake in SpaceX at IPO.

Despite the boost from overseas, ASX futures indicate the local index could retrace some of yesterday's jump at the open, with SPI 200 futures down 1.1%, but let's see.

And of course, the Reserve Bank interest rate setting board members will be back at the table today, with a decision due at 2:30pm AEST. No change expected this meeting.

Stay with us through the day.