Vance takes center stage with Iran deal to open Strait of Hormuz

Vice President Vance is taking center stage as the U.S. is poised to sign a preliminary deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in what could prove to be a political opportunity or minefield as he seeks to tout his credentials ahead of 2028.

President Trump said on Monday the vice president will represent the U.S. in a signing ceremony of the physical document with Iran in Switzerland if the deal ultimately goes through.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a top Senate ally of Trump, then raised eyebrows in a post on the social platform X, where he referred to Vance as the “architect of the deal.” Graham also mentioned some worries about the agreement given how Iran was describing it and said it should be presented to Congress for final approval.

If Vance is seen as the face of a lasting deal to end the unpopular war, it could bolster his anti-interventionist bona fides.

Vance is widely seen as the Trump administration official who least wanted to enter the war, and while he has remained loyal to Trump throughout, the president has acknowledged Vance’s relative coolness to the Iran intervention.

Given that the American public, according to polls, is broadly skeptical of the war, that might not be a bad place for Vance to be.

Yet there is also skepticism of the deal from hawkish factions of the GOP, which could put Vance in a difficult position, particularly if an ensuing deal on Iran’s nuclear program — to be negotiated over the next two months — falls apart.

“Given that Vance is in pole position, every ball he picks up is fraught with peril,” said Dan K. Eberhart, a Republican donor.

“I would not want that specific assignment,” he added.

Vance made the rounds on a number of U.S. morning shows on Monday to promote the deal, announcing that more details would be made available later this week. The vice president also previewed what to expect in the memorandum of understanding, describing it on CNN as a one and half page general document.

“I think it’s a great day for the American people,” Vance told CNBC, noting oil prices plunging in response to the news and the “long-term commitment that Iran will never develop or procure a nuclear weapon.”

“Those are two very big wins for the American people,” he added.

Vance also sought to quell potential concerns over the deal, addressing Graham’s social media post in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

“I’d caution Lindsey Graham and anybody else not to believe the hard-liner propaganda in Iran but to believe what’s actually in the agreement,” the vice president said.

One former Trump administration official said that Vance’s status as an elected official makes him the best option to represent the U.S. in a signing ceremony in the case that it heads to Capitol Hill for approval.

“This is signing something that could potentially be passed through the Senate as a treaty,” the former official said. “Having it signed by an elected official of which the executive branch only has two is, I think, significant.”

Vance also emphasized that Iran will not receive U.S. funds as a part of the deal unless Iran carries out what the vice president said were their obligations, such as giving up their nuclear program and putting a stop to funding terror activity across the Middle East.

“What we are saying is that we’re willing to give significant sanctions relief if the Iranians make the kind of long-term commitments that are necessary to be a normal country,” Vance told ABC.

Vance is also likely to get more questions on the agreement this week as he promotes his new book “Communion” which is slated to come out on Tuesday.

He’s scheduled to visit ABC’s “The View” on Tuesday and is also expected to be a guest on Megyn Kelly’s podcast.

Vance is widely seen as the most likely heir apparent to Trump as the next GOP presidential nominee, though he has some competition in the public eye, at least, from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump has not named a successor but has repeatedly referred to Vance and Rubio as a dream team for the 2028 Republican ticket.

Rubio has received widespread praise for his role in the administration, leading to questions of whether he is bound for a primary matchup against Vance.

“There’s kind of a jockeying underway, and I think it’s important that the vice president himself [gets into] the arena and starts demonstrating some political heft of his own,” said one Republican.

Others say the role Vance has taken on in regard to Iran is no different than the role he’s played on other key issues in the administration like selling the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to voters and leading the administration’s anti-fraud task force.

“This has sort of been a consistent role JD has played throughout the administration,” said Alex Pfeiffer, a Republican strategist and former principal deputy White House communications director during Trump’s second term.

“I sort of just see this as a continuation of JD’s role as a spokesman or an advocate for administration policy wins,” he said.

Rubio will likely play a key role in promoting the deal to his foreign counterparts at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in France this week.

“That Cabinet all plays to a slice of the Republican base that got Trump into the White House,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.

The deal comes as Americans grapple with skyrocketing gas prices, which have played into Democratic messaging against Trump and Republicans on affordability.

It’s unclear whether gas prices will go down in time to boost Republicans in November, but Vance’s pitch of the deal to voters could serve as a blueprint for candidates in tough races.

“I think the biggest thing that’s going to help the Republicans hold the House is getting gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and that’s what the deal is essentially going to do assuming we have the same deal in 60 days,” O’Connell said.

“If you hold the House, you have a better chance of the Republican ticket winning in 2028 versus not holding the House,” he said

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