Gulf countries confront questions about relying on US for protection

TEL AVIV – As Persian Gulf countries breathe a sigh of relief that a preliminary deal between the United States and Iran will restore a degree of normalcy, they are confronting new questions about their decades-long reliance on the US to ensure their security.

The fear is particularly acute after that protective umbrella struggled to defend their cities and critical infrastructure during the conflict.

“The US security guarantee is no longer reliable in the way they thought it was,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

During almost four months of war, Iran and its allies struck military bases, energy facilities, and hotels in countries throughout the region and shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway for oil and gas shipments. The preliminary deal, Gulf leaders hope, will allow their countries to resume exporting oil and gas without Iranian interference, and permit their residents to return to daily life without fear of Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Some Iranian drones were able to evade US defence systems, and the US government and military appeared unprepared for Iran’s closure of the strait.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, there was a prevailing sentiment in the Gulf that the US was looking increasingly inward and showing less interest in getting involved in conflicts in the Middle East. The feeling encouraged countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to step up cooperation with other countries in Europe and Asia on security affairs.

The war, Vakil said, most likely will accelerate the push to diversify.

Two officials from Gulf states, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said their governments have already held discussions on reducing their dependence on the US.

The officials, however, said their leaders were looking to increase cooperation with countries that the US would consider acceptable. The US has thousands of soldiers deployed at multiple bases in the Gulf, limiting the extent to which countries can turn in a different direction.

Bader al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said he thought the Gulf countries needed to take more responsibility for their own security by building out their armies and developing defence technologies.

“Across the Gulf, Iran is facing immense sanctions,” he said. “Yet, they’re able to develop their own national defence infrastructure. We should do the same. We have the finances and the know-how.”

Gulf countries, al-Saif added, should also find ways to cooperate more effectively between themselves, overcoming internal competition and rivalry. For example, he said they should coordinate weapons procurement in a way that makes the most sense for the entire region.

“We need to work in tandem,” he said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.