Nigeria’s crude earnings plunge N1.75tn despite global price rally

Nigeria’s crude oil exports fell by N1.75tn in the first quarter of 2026 despite a rise in global oil prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

The NBS, in its latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report for Q1 2026, said crude oil exports declined to N11.20tn from N12.96tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

“Crude oil exports in Q1 2026 were valued at N11.20tn; the value decreased by 13.53 per cent from N12.96tn in Q1 2025 and increased by 15.45 per cent from N9.70tn in Q4 2025,” the bureau stated.

The decline translates to a year-on-year loss of N1.75tn in crude export earnings, although crude receipts rose by N1.50tn compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. The data suggests that the rebound from the previous quarter was not strong enough to match the level recorded in early 2025.

Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export product during the period, but its weight in the country’s export basket weakened.

The commodity accounted for 52.92 per cent of total exports in Q1 2026, down from 62.89 per cent in Q1 2025. This means crude oil still generated more than half of Nigeria’s export earnings, but its share fell by almost 10 percentage points within one year.

Total exports rose to N21.17tn in Q1 2026 from N20.60tn in Q1 2025, representing a 2.77 per cent increase. This shows that overall export growth was not driven by crude oil but by stronger earnings from non-crude oil exports and other petroleum products.

Non-crude oil exports rose to N9.97tn in Q1 2026 from N7.64tn in Q1 2025, while non-oil exports stood at N3.19tn. Other oil product exports also increased sharply to N6.78tn from N4.48tn, representing a 51.49 per cent rise.

The report said, “Crude oil remained Nigeria’s major exported commodity in the first quarter of 2026, with a value of N11.20tn, representing 52.92 per cent of total exports.”

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The figures indicate that Nigeria’s export structure remained heavily dependent on petroleum, even as crude oil underperformed year-on-year. Mineral products accounted for N18.16tn, or 85.77 per cent of total exports, followed by products of the chemical and allied industries at N1.39tn, or 6.58 per cent.

India was Nigeria’s biggest export destination in the quarter, receiving goods valued at N2.77tn, or 13.09 per cent of total exports. France followed with N1.97tn, the Netherlands with N1.95tn, Spain with N1.63tn, and the United States with N1.18tn. Together, the five countries accounted for 44.84 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports.

Regionally, Europe was Nigeria’s largest export market, with goods valued at N7.93tn, or 37.44 per cent of total exports. Asia followed with N6.42tn, or 30.31 per cent, while Africa received N4.06tn, or 19.19 per cent.

Despite the fall in crude earnings, Nigeria posted a stronger trade surplus of N7.55tn in Q1 2026, compared with N1.71tn in Q4 2025. The bureau attributed the improvement mainly to lower imports and higher crude oil exports on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

Imports fell to N13.62tn in Q1 2026 from N16.64tn in Q1 2025 and N17.25tn in Q4 2025. The lower import bill helped strengthen the trade balance, even though crude earnings remained weaker than the level recorded a year earlier.

The decline came despite rising international crude oil prices in March 2026, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over disruptions to global oil supply routes.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, Brent crude prices climbed sharply during the first quarter of 2026, crossing the $100 per barrel mark on March 12 and closing the quarter at around $118 per barrel after renewed military tensions in the Middle East and fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The decline in crude oil export earnings further coincided with lower crude oil production in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting that weaker output may have offset the benefits of higher international oil prices during the period.

The NBS, in its latest Gross Domestic Product report, noted, “The nation in the first quarter of 2026 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.62 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.58 mbpd.”