War-weary Russia is falling apart

Skip to content

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russians — both Russia’s elites and ordinary citizens — to ignore the growing disaster that has been created by more than four years of Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine.

Russians understand well that, in exchange for decidedly meager gains, the conflict has resulted in catastrophic strategic setbacks: an expanded and better-resourced NATO; more than a million casualties; the loss of energy market dominance in Europe (and the political influence that came with it); the exodus of up to 1 million of the country’s most capable young citizens; the destruction of the Russian economy; and much more.

To be sure, most have remained quiet out of a fully justified fear of Putin’s instruments of repression. But that is changing. Growing numbers of Russians are now publicly speaking out against the war, and even against Putin himself. And many are doing so without being killed or sent to jail.

In Russia’s rigidly controlled authoritarian system, this state of affairs is only possible because elements of Russia’s powerful security services permit it. That they increasingly do should be a major warning sign for Putin.

Could this growing dissent finally lead to the end of Putin’s rule and, along with it, the war? Is there a tipping point?

Perhaps it will be the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, of which there have been more than 150 to date. Between May 1 and May 22 alone, Kyiv successfully struck 10 of Russia’s largest refineries, causing six to suspend or stop operations. As a result, it’s now not hard to imagine a Moscow summer with gas shortages and long lines.

Russia’s problems do not stop there, however. It also has a problem exporting its crude, because Ukrainian attacks have targeted its ports. For instance, between March 25 and April 11, Russia exported 3.5 million barrels per day — a decrease of roughly 40 percent from the 5.2 million barrels it was shipping out daily earlier this year. That, in turn, is dwindling Russia’s finances and forcing the regime to eat ever deeper into its National Wealth Fund. Indeed, the Kremlin has by now reportedly sold approximately 60 percent of its gold reserves.

As a result of these and other factors, the head of the usually loyal Communist Party of Russia, Gennady Zyuganov, recently cautioned that economic conditions have become so dire that a 1917-style revolution is now possible. Zyuganov’s warning is consistent with those of lesser public figures, who now routinely raise the alarm about the fragility of the economy as well as Russia’s ability to continue financing the war.

Increasingly, Russia’s supply lines are compromised as well. Moscow is reliant on one major road and one rail line to supply its troops in Crimea and other parts of southeastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, it has lost the ability to safely do so, because trains and convoys using those routes are being successfully targeted by Ukraine’s new FP-2 drones, which carry 230 pounds of explosives and have a range of 120 miles. Moving trains have been damaged and derailed, the road is littered with destroyed Russian vehicles, and those continuing to travel are being forced to do so at night.

The cumulative effect is already being seen in Crimea, where the city of Sevastopol has now begun rationing gas.

Back in December 2010, when Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest restrictive government regulations, it touched off a political cascade that resulted in the removal of longtime regional leaders like Tunisia’s Zine Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarek and, eventually, Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi. A similar cascade is now possible in Russia’s current, fraught political environment.

Of course, there might be no tipping point at all. Putin understands his personal vulnerability perfectly well, and has moved decisively to limit it. To better control information, he has shut down parts of Russia’s internet. And to prevent a coup or assassination, he has tightened his personal security and stepped up the repression of potential opponents. These measures could enable him to stay in power, and to continue the war.

No one knows how the current dilemma created by Putin’s military misadventure will play out. One thing, however, is increasingly clear: The trendlines are not good, either for Russia or for its president.

Herman Pirchner Jr. is president of the American Foreign Policy Council.

Tags

Moammar Gadhafi

Russia

Ukraine

Vladimir Putin

War

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.