Europe is gearing up for a trade fight with China. But will it change anything?

As trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to rise, China’s firms in the European Union have been forced to walk a delicate tightrope: expanding their presence in the lucrative market while grappling with heightened regulatory hurdles and rapid geopolitical shifts. In the second part of this three-part series, we look at whether China and the EU are heading for a full-blown trade conflict.

Last week, Beijing gathered more than a dozen Chinese companies in Berlin for a forum with a single purpose: showcasing China’s appetite for German exports.

Politicians and executives from both countries crowded into a meeting hall at the headquarters of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, where China’s vice-minister of commerce, Ling Ji, pitched the promise of China’s vast market.

The event – titled “Big Market to All, Export to China” – is part of a campaign China launched last year to promote imports from its major trading partners and, in its words, “safeguard the multilateral free trade system”.

In reality, the effort is likely also a response to a wider issue: China’s ballooning trade surplus, which is triggering growing angst in countries across the European Union – and could even push the two sides into a full-blown trade conflict.

China’s trade surplus reached a record US$1.19 trillion last year, and its exports continue to far outstrip imports. In the first five months of 2026, shipments to Germany soared by 17.3 per cent year on year, while imports from Germany rose just 1.5 per cent, according to Chinese customs data.

The growing imbalance has sparked alarm in Europe, with some warning of a looming “China shock 2.0” that could decimate local industry. That has put Brussels – which is already locked in a dispute with Beijing over a string of recent policies targeting unfair trade practices – under pressure to introduce even stronger protections.