Live: ASX to slip, oil plunges to 3-month low on reports US to scale back Iran sanctions

Oil prices have sunk to a three-month low on reports the US will allow Iran to start selling oil again in a major roll-back of economic sanctions.

The Australian share market is likely to fall in morning trade, following significant losses across Wall Street's tech stocks which knocked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower.

See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:04am

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:04am

Market snapshot

By David Chau

ASX futures: -0.2% to 8,904 points

ASX 200 (Tuesday close): +0.04% to 8,918 points

Australian dollar: -0.1% to 70.65 US cents

Wall Street: Dow Jones (+0.6%), S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq (-1.2%)

Europe: Stoxx 600 (+0.3%), DAX (+0.1%), FTSE (+0.6%)

Spot gold: +0.6% to $US4,331/ounce

Oil futures: Brent (-4.4% to $US79.49/barrel), WTI (-5% to $US76.73/barrel)

Iron ore: +0.2% to $US101.65/tonne

Bitcoin: -1.1% to $US65,779

Prices current at around 7:30am AEST

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Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:13am

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:13am

How the explosion of the ultra-wealthy could threaten democracy

By David Chau

Can democracy survive the existence of trillionaires?

French economist Gabriel Zucman, one of the world's foremost experts on wealth taxation, isn't so sure.

He said anyone celebrating Elon Musk's US$1 trillion fortune needs to understand the fundamental tension between extreme wealth and democracy.

"For with the explosion of the wealth of the super-rich has come an explosion of their power. The power to tilt markets, to shape public discourse, to influence policymaking, to stall social progress."

"That's how Musk could buy Twitter on a whim for US$44 billion in 2022. That's how [Larry] Ellison can buy TikTok, CBS, and CNN today. That's how billionaires could account for 20 per cent of all political donations in the 2024 election cycle," he said.

"As the AI boom is minting billionaires by the day and the first trillionaires are now coming into view, one thing is becoming clearer and clearer.

"The battle between democracy and oligarchy will be the defining battle of the 21st century."

That's an excerpt from a column that my colleague Gareth Hutchens wrote. You can read more here:

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:07am

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:07am

Michele Bullock is still threatening rate hikes, but the market thinks she's bluffing

By David Chau

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is fond of saying that hiking the interest rate is only tool the RBA has to get inflation down.

But she does have another — her words.

When she stepped up to the microphone, Bullock was at pains to jawbone those left with any doubt.

"Today's decision does not rule out further tightening in monetary policy if that is what is required to bring inflation down," she emphasised.

"In making its decisions, the board will be focused on the data and what that suggests about the outlook and risks."

But, despite the tough talk, traders haven't really changed their bets on further rate hikes.

From about 30% before the meeting, the odds of an August rate rise have been sitting in the high-20s since the press conference.

The market has priced in basically a 50-50 call as to whether rates will rise any further at all.

For more, here's the latest analysis from the ABC's business editor Michael Janda:

Key Event

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:04am

Wed 17 Jun 2026 at 8:04am

Oil prices drop to three-month low, ASX to slip

By David Chau

Good morning, and welcome to the ABC's finance blog. I'll be guiding you through the latest market action for the next few hours.

Oil prices have fallen sharply, with Brent crude futures down 4.5% to $US79.40 per barrel.

This takes prices to a three-month low ... or back to where they were on March 2 (shortly after the US and Israel started their war against Iran).

There's a lot of excitement (arguably too much) about the Strait of Hormuz reopening when the US and Iran formally sign their interim agreement to end the war — at a ceremony in Switzerland on Friday (local time).

Oil also tumbled on reports the US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once that agreement is signed.

So effectively, it's a major rollback of economic sanctions against Iran.

So you can expect the huge drop in oil prices to weigh heavily on Australia's energy stocks later today.

On that front, the local share market is on track to open slightly lower (with ASX futures down 0.3%).

It comes after a mixed performance on Wall Street — the Dow Jones rise 0.6% to a new record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6% and 1.2% respectively.

But first, grab a coffee, tea or whatever you normally have in the morning, and I'll have more updates for you shortly!