TAT slashes long-haul arrival forecast to 10 million

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has slashed its long-haul arrival forecast to 10 million this year, on par with last year, mainly attributed to the Middle East conflict.

Chiravadee Khunsub, deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, said the agency initially projected 11 million long-haul arrivals, but cut the forecast after flight disruptions the past three months.

In 2025, the long-haul market rose by 10% to 10.8 million arrivals, generating 685 billion baht.

Mrs Chiravadee said while arrivals from the Middle East have fallen significantly, the European and American markets have remained stable.

As of June 7, Thailand welcomed 5 million long-haul tourists, down by 1.6% year-on-year, while the Middle East market plunged 32%.

She said the long-haul market remains resilient, supported by an airline-focused strategy that has helped sustain momentum this year.

The strategy enables more direct flights from various origins, reducing reliance on a single hub. This strategy helped lift the growth of emerging markets, such as Kazakhstan by 8.3%, Uzbekistan by 28%, and Poland by 16.8%, according to the TAT.

The agency instructed its overseas offices to maintain marketing campaigns and direct flights between Thailand and source markets during the low season.

Beyond major cities, the TAT is also seeking direct flights from secondary cities in mature markets, such as Lyon and Bordeaux in France.

The agency is also promoting long-haul transit hubs in countries such as Turkey via Turkish Airlines, targeting European tourists, and in North Asia via carriers such as Korean Air and Eva Air to attract those from the Americas.

During the third quarter, which is the low season, she said travellers tend to stay closer to home, particularly within Europe, and adopt a wait-and-see approach until global travel sentiment improves.

However, the fourth-quarter outlook is more promising, based on forward bookings, particularly among four- and five-star hotels.

The long-haul market is also less price-sensitive compared to the short-haul markets, as travellers are still willing to spend on a high-quality holiday in Thailand, even though competitors such as China and Vietnam offer cheaper packages for similar products.

Five-star hotels in Thailand typically cost around 7,000 baht per night, compared with roughly 3,000 baht in China and Vietnam.

For the Middle East market, discussions with airlines and travel agents have indicated positive recovery signs, with carriers planning to resume flights to Krabi and Phuket next winter.

These developments reflect sustained demand for Thailand, which remains the leading destination in Southeast Asia, she said.

Other upcoming services include LOT Polish Airlines' Warsaw-Bangkok route from October and Scandinavian Airlines' winter flights to Krabi.