Geopolitics is complicating the green transition – and China’s moment

The recent escalation in the Middle East has produced an unforeseen winner. The conflict has rekindled worries about logistics and energy security, prompting governments and businesses to reconsider their reliance on fossil fuels and fragile supply routes. This has sped up the move towards renewable energy.

The strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz is well understood. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through this narrow waterway. Any threat to its operation immediately affects energy prices, investor sentiment and economic planning. The conflict once again shows how fragile the global energy system remains when it depends heavily on a handful of geopolitical chokepoints.

For policymakers around the world, the lesson is increasingly clear. Reducing dependence on imported oil is no longer simply an environmental objective. It has become a national security priority.

Across Europe, demand for electric vehicles has surged to record levels. In March alone, Britain’s installation of solar capacity hit its highest since 2012. South Korea, which imports about 70 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East, has accelerated plans to expand renewable energy generation. Similar discussions are taking place in countries throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America.

But there is an important reality many governments are reluctant to acknowledge publicly: the path away from fossil fuels runs through China.