Press review: Kazan hosts ASEAN summit and Hormuz reopening shapes ruble, oil outlook

MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. Russia’s Kazan will host over ten Southeast Asian delegations for the Russia-ASEAN summit; Israel has only partially achieved its war goals in the Middle East; and the potential impact of the Strait of Hormuz reopening on ruble and oil prices. These were Wednesday’s top headlines across Russia.

Media: Kazan to host over 10 Southeast Asian delegations for Russia-ASEAN summit

In the coming days, key political figures from Southeast Asia will gather in Kazan. Among them will be the president of the Philippines, a US ally who will hold face-to-face talks with Vladimir Putin. The prime minister of Singapore, the only ASEAN country to have imposed sanctions on Russia, will also be in attendance. Experts say Southeast Asia is establishing itself as a new, stable center of power on the international stage. Moscow's active rapprochement with ASEAN allows it to effectively diversify its "pivot to the East."

The summit’s agenda is packed with sessions where crucial documents will be adopted, as well as bilateral meetings. The parties will need to define their approaches to international issues and the direction of their partnership through 2030. Russia has a history of cooperation with ASEAN countries in various fields: from high technology to agriculture, Pavel Shaternikov, a senior lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. "The main thing is that Russia’s pivot to the East should not be reduced to a pivot solely toward China. The more actively we cooperate with countries in Southeast Asia, the more positively we will be perceived there. Currently, many residents of the Asia-Pacific region still see Russia as either a remnant of the Soviet Union or an incomprehensible, cold northern country," he noted. "Russia is, of course, becoming better known in the region, but there is still much work to be done along this path," the expert emphasized.

Previous Russia-ASEAN summits were held in person in Malaysia in 2005, Vietnam in 2010, Sochi in 2016, and Singapore in 2018. Due to the pandemic, the 2021 meeting was held via videoconference, which made it largely a formality, Mikhail Terskikh, a research fellow at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. The main value of such summits lies in bilateral negotiations because that is where real progress can be achieved, he said. Russia’s cooperation with various countries in the region proceeds along different tracks. Undoubtedly, some countries are interested in establishing oil and gas cooperation under current conditions. This effectively includes about half of the countries in Southeast Asia. However, there are also countries with which Russia traditionally develops military-technical cooperation, such as Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and to a certain extent, Cambodia, Terskikh noted.

As for Singapore’s political course, the expert emphasized that it follows a highly pragmatic line. Despite its constraints, Singapore cannot be described as exclusively pro-American. In recent decades, Singapore has pursued a fairly balanced policy, cooperating with Russia when it serves its interests. According to Terskikh, the level of Philippine representation in Kazan is the biggest surprise of all. Unlike his predecessor, President Rodrigo Duterte, current leader Bongbong Marcos is pursuing a clearly pro-American course.

Vedomosti: Israel outlines results of Middle East campaign

Israel will continue to neutralize external threats in the Middle East and will also form new alliances with regional and non-regional countries, despite the US-Iran agreements to end the military confrontation on June 15, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. He also announced that Tel Aviv had achieved the goals of the Middle East war. However, he acknowledged that he was unaware of the text of the memorandum of understanding because Israel was excluded from the US-Iran talks. Netanyahu called on Israelis to remain vigilant, as the fight against Iran and its "proxies" in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria is not yet over.

Israel has achieved its war goals only partially and tactically, Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. According to her, the Israelis managed to inflict serious damage on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities; the country’s internal security structures were also affected, which was in line with the goal of "creating conditions" for regime change through domestic protests. However, she warned that if the current agreement truly does not address these areas, it will be quite difficult to consolidate these gains in the long term. "Indeed, despite the Israeli leadership’s triumphant reports, ordinary Israelis do not view this as a victory. The outcome of the military conflict will most likely have a negative impact on the popularity of Netanyahu and his cabinet, primarily because the right-wing electorate is the most disappointed," the expert stressed.

To some extent, Israel has achieved its war goals: it has expanded its zone of occupation in the region and is now unlikely to withdraw from there in the near future, Middle Eastern Studies Center President Murad Sadigzade pointed out. And although the Israelis were unable to bring about regime change in Iran, they have seriously weakened the capabilities of Iranian proxies. However, it is still too early to speak of an end to hostilities in the Middle East, as the ceasefire between Iran and the US could theoretically last until the end of the year, the expert noted: "The Americans’ withdrawal from the war was a measure they were forced to take. Iran, for its part, emerged from the crisis with grand ambitions. Therefore, a shift in the balance of power is currently taking place in the region, and under these conditions, the emergence of new crises is inevitable."

The current cessation of hostilities in the Middle East will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the popularity of Israeli right-wing parties, Sadigzade emphasized. The expert also pointed to the possibility of early elections in Israel and a victory for opposition forces, since, in his opinion, issues of security and the elimination of external threats have thus far been closely linked to domestic political processes. "The failure of Israel's strategy could lead to a transformation of the country itself, as the opposition is trying to use foreign policy setbacks to its advantage," Sadigzade said.

Vedomosti: Hormuz reopening may affect ruble, oil budget

The expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could weaken the ruble, experts note. However, the impact on Russia will be delayed by one and a half to two months, so sharp fluctuations are not expected. According to forecasts, the exchange rate will begin to move toward 85 rubles per dollar as early as this fall, in combination with other factors.

Analysts note that Russian exporters are still injecting increased revenue into the market, thanks to higher oil prices in the spring. Due to limited access to foreign capital, the domestic currency market is primarily driven by the current balance of supply and demand for currency, so no impact has been observed yet, Finam Financial Group analyst Alexander Potavin told Vedomosti. According to the Central Bank, at the beginning of the year, the exchange rate ranged between 76 and 78 rubles per dollar, then rose sharply in March to 84.84 rubles per dollar. After that, the US dollar began to weaken against the ruble, and on June 17, the Bank of Russia set the rate at 72.14 rubles per dollar.

The effect of the decline in currency supply caused by a possible drop in oil prices will not become noticeable until August at the earliest, Ilya Fyodorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, emphasized. By late summer, the volume of foreign currency sales by non-oil and gas exporters will decline, while the Finance Ministry’s currency purchases will begin to have a cumulative effect, the expert noted. The ruble may gradually weaken as seasonal demand for foreign currency increases in the second half of the year and monetary policy continues to ease, Sovcombank chief analyst Mikhail Vasilyev stressed.

Experts do not expect a sharp drop in oil prices even after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. Economists say it will take one to two months for shipping routes to fully resume. Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in late June, Persian Gulf countries will need until the end of the year to increase production, Potavin pointed out. The need for importing countries to replenish their oil reserves — which they actively used during the conflict — could provide additional support to the market, Fyodorov said.

The decline in oil prices poses risks to the Russian budget; however, by the end of the year, the price of Russian oil will not fall below the cut-off price of 59 dollars per barrel, Zhanna Smirnova, macroeconomic analysis director at Dom.RF Bank, emphasized. The Urals price has fallen by about 30% over the past month; however, the volume of oil and gas revenues depends not only on global oil prices but also on export volumes, the discount on Russian oil, and the ruble exchange rate, Potavin noted.

Media: Reasons behind NATO countries conducting defense drills in Suwalki Gap near Russian border

On June 16-26, servicemen from Lithuania, Poland, and France will conduct large-scale drills to practice defending the Suwalki Gap, a narrow land corridor separating Russia’s Kaliningrad Region from Belarus, which the West considers NATO’s Achilles’ heel and a key land artery connecting the Baltic states with the rest of the alliance. The stated goal of the drills, codenamed "Gallant Boar 2026," is to defend this route and coordinate troop actions. However, experts describe the frequently cited "Russian breakthrough" scenario as outdated and intended for a domestic audience to justify increased military spending.

France’s participation is explained by both Paris’s geopolitical ambitions and purely pragmatic military objectives, expert Andrey Koshkin told Izvestia. "The presence of Lithuania and Poland at these drills is entirely natural - the exercises are taking place right on their borders. France’s inclusion in this framework, however, reflects Emmanuel Macron’s desire to establish Paris as a leading force in pan-European security," the expert noted.

In addition, according to Koshkin, standard tasks related to coordinating troops within the alliance are being addressed, such as testing logistics and interoperability between the various countries’ armed forces. However, these exercises also carry an underlying agenda: they represent yet another attempt to demonstrate the alleged "Russian threat" to the world. The alliance is persistently promoting the narrative that Russia plans to "cut through" a land corridor into the Kaliningrad Region from Belarus using armored vehicles. However, this underestimates the capabilities of the modern Russian Armed Forces, military expert Viktor Litovkin emphasized.

According to military expert Oleg Odnokolenko, the ultimate goal of the "Gallant Boar 2026" drills is to rehearse a land blockade of the Kaliningrad Region and strikes against it. "A military blockade of the Kaliningrad Region would essentially mark the beginning of an open armed conflict between NATO and Russia," the expert told Kommersant. "Russia’s response to such actions is outlined in its military doctrine. Coastal missile systems will block all routes along which NATO blockade ships would pass. In addition, Iskander systems will be deployed in the Kaliningrad Region, and Oreshnik systems will be deployed in Belarus. The entire European theater is within range, which guarantees that NATO will not dare impose a full-scale blockade of the Kaliningrad Region," he pointed out.

"Any attempts at provocation in this region will be met with a harsh and asymmetric response. In the event of a real threat, Russia can neutralize the danger with high-precision, long-range weapons without engaging in local positional battles as envisaged by NATO planning," Litovkin stressed.

Izvestia: Russia holding talks with Argentina on development of lithium deposits

Russian businesses are discussing mineral extraction projects with Argentina. These talks are not being publicized, but Buenos Aires is showing a willingness to engage in dialogue, experts say. A key priority for Moscow is lithium, a scarce resource essential for the production of modern batteries and energy storage systems. These intensified contacts are taking place as the US seeks to block Russia's and China's presence in the region.

Representatives of Russian companies regularly visit Argentina to discuss joint mining projects with local partners, Russian ambassador to Buenos Aires Dmitry Feoktistov told Izvestia. "Given the current political situation, such contacts are conducted primarily without undue publicity. As far as we know, the official authorities have not refused any requests from Russian companies," the diplomat noted.

The ambassador did not specify which metals Russian companies are discussing - the conversation centered on mining in general. However, Russia’s primary interest in Argentina’s mineral resources has long been known: lithium. Global demand for this metal is growing rapidly because it is essential for producing batteries, electric vehicles, and high-tech energy storage systems. Lithium is also in high demand in the energy sector.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s contacts with Moscow are taking place amid intense pressure from Washington. The Donald Trump administration is openly trying to push non-regional players — primarily Russia and China — out of Latin America, while Argentinian President Javier Milei is pursuing a pro-American course and has even applied for NATO global partner status. "A number of countries already hold this status, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Colombia, and Mongolia. Russia is actively developing trade and economic cooperation with them. So if Argentina possesses some of the world’s largest lithium reserves and desperately needs investors, it remains a key potential partner. However, the strict budgetary austerity measures implemented by Milei prevent the country from foregoing foreign investment in the energy and mining sectors. Argentina exemplifies the classic model of a state balancing geopolitical loyalty with its own resource interests. And in this balance, the economy invariably prevails," Valdai Club expert Alisa Kazelko pointed out.

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