Why farmers see Colombia’s knife-edge election as a battle for the Amazon’s future

Like most people settling in the area, Pablo Peña was seeking to escape violence and make a living from a patch of land when he moved to Guaviare in central Colombia. More than 30 years on, he says his life is now about conflict and deforestation.

Peña first visited Guaviare during his mandatory military service. Years later, in 1994, he settled down to farm in Guaviare’s Calamar, a town in a remote corner of the Amazon.

“When the guerrillas went to Havana [in 2012] to negotiate the peace treaty with [former president Juan Manuel] Santos, we realised that we didn’t even know where we had settled or the boundaries of our land,” says Peña. “Then we decided to protect our land.”

In 2018, Peña and his fellow campesinos began the process of creating a peasant reserve zone (ZRC), a designated land-use area aimed at safeguarding rural communities, supporting local farmers and stabilising their territories amid conflict that remains ongoing despite the 2016 ceasefire.

Reserve zones have been at the heart of President Gustavo Petro’s plans to improve farmers’ livelihoods while tackling deforestation and protecting biodiversity in the Amazon. During the past four years, his government has created 20 of the 27 existing zones.

The Colombian government officially approved Peña’s request for a ZRC in 2025. But Petro’s presidential term is coming to an end and a far-right candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, is competing with the leftwing Iván Cepeda in a highly polarised election. Farmers such as Peña fear for the future of the ZRCs if the far right wins in the second round on 21 June.

De la Espriella won the first round by a narrow margin over Cepeda on 31 May. The run-off election will show whether Colombians support a continuation of Petro’s policies, based on dialogue and reform, or return to a hardline militarised strategy proposed by De la Espriella.

Like many others, Peña was drawn to Guaviare by a surge in coca leaf production in Colombia. A few years later, he bought his first plot of land – which lacked title deeds. The price: a kilo of coca paste.

The land Peña occupied was within a forest reserve, further complicating property rights under Colombian law. According to the ministry of agriculture, before the peace treaty this was not an exceptional situation, as at least 40% of rural land in Colombia lacked formal titles.

With the “war on drugs” and intensive programmes to eradicate plantations in Colombia, many farmers, including Peña, who had been growing coca leaves shifted to raising cattle, leading to increased deforestation. Between 2002 and 2025, Guaviare lost 350,000 hectares (865,000 acres) of forest – an area nearly five times the size of Singapore.

“While you could survive with five hectares of coca, cattle needed larger extensions of land,” Peña says.

Some ZRCs have become more sustainable, however. In Calamar, the Guardian of Chiribiquete, a peasant reserve covering 183,200 hectares and supporting 4,430 people, was officially established in 2025. It is named after the nearby Chiribiquete national park, a Unesco world heritage site, which has inspired the community’s efforts to develop sustainable economies.

ZRCs are essentially a mechanism for bringing farmers into the institutional framework and away from armed groups’ territorial control, but they have also had a positive impact on the environment when followed by investments in sustainable development, according to Camilo González Posso, founder of Indepaz, a peacebuilding NGO, and a former government peace negotiator.

“The law requires that these zones create sustainable development plans in collaboration with institutions, while the government has a commitment to contributing to the development of sustainable economies through investment and programmes,” González Posso says.

Within the Guardian of Chiribiquete, almost half of the native forest remains intact. Community members work to protect the area while planting native trees and Amazonian fruits, such as cacao and copoazú, to generate income.

Supported by organisations such as the conservation charity WWF and the deforestation programme Visión Amazonía, residents have been establishing plant nurseries, restoring waterways and receiving training in woodworking.

While its members recognise the need to reduce deforestation, cattle remain an important part of people’s lives and livelihoods, so many hope that a smooth transition to sustainable practices can take place without affecting their finances.

“Although we live in a hidden corner of the country, we understand the damage caused to nature, and we are trying to compensate for the damage caused without affecting our economies,” says Leydy Janneth García, a representative of the conservation project Green Amazon.

García and her family arrived in Guaviare in 2018 after fleeing conflict. They bought land previously used for coca cultivation and planted cacao, which thrived as the coca trees withered. Their farm now also produces oranges, avocados, chontaduro (also known as peach palm) and tamarind, sharing spaces with a small herd of cattle. Nearly half of their land, 14.5 hectares, is set aside for conservation.

Yet most farmers in ZRCs feel unsure about what will happen to them and to the Amazon after the general election. Many feel Petro has ensured the right to land but not security, as he failed to bring armed groups under control. They believe Cepeda would follow the same path. There are also fears that a far-right government led by De la Espriella would bring back the conflict and prioritise large landowners, extensive farming and agribusiness growth at the expense of the environment.

“History shows that the current government has demonstrated this determination, but political will alone, without security, is not enough,” says Jesús Cuestas, a farmer and ZRC member.

While acknowledging progress made by Petro’s government in land rights, farmers remain concerned about guerrillas’ increasing influence. “Under Petro’s administration, armed groups have expanded, and we fear that if Cepeda wins, this trend will continue,” says García.

On the other hand, the prospect of a rightwing administration is even more concerning for experts such as González Posso. De La Espriella supports fracking and intends to expand its use, leading to fears about the impact on the environment and local communities. He has also urged Colombia to withdraw from the UN, which could impact international investment in rural initiatives and peace efforts.

“De la Espriella links development to extractivism, supporting an extensive livestock model and benefiting the wealthy landowners,” he says.

González Posso fears that a far-right administration could bring more violence, not just from armed groups. He says farmers are likely to resist being expelled from their lands to benefit the agroindustry, and guerrillas would be empowered by extensive livestock farming, which is more lucrative, so they could increase extortion practices by charging landowners for each head of cattle and hectare of pasture, and imposing a fine for each hectare of deforested land.

“Cepeda aims to strengthen a sustainable economy created with and for the people. It’s crucial to develop a medium-term strategy that integrates ZRCs, peace initiatives and environmental considerations,” says González Posso.

Whoever wins the election, campesinos agree that the next government will have to bring about far-reaching changes to the country’s rural economy.

“We need to shift focus from discussion to action. A great deal of money has been spent, yet not a single peasant survives on conservation or rainforest resources,” says Cuestas. “The day a hectare of rainforest becomes more expensive than a hectare of grass, we will finally have achieved balance.”