Germany and Poland sign new defence deal as balance of power in Europe shifts

Germany and Poland signed a new defence agreement on Wednesday, putting aside their complicated past to strengthen European military cooperation amid heightened tensions with Russia and growing uncertainty over US engagement in Europe.

Relations between the two neighbours in recent years have become more pragmatic in the wake of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the coming to power of a liberal government in Poland in 2023.

“We are not forgetting the past,” Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said in Warsaw during a press conference with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius.

“But the politics of the future, development and security are our obligation.”

As the US weighs a partial drawdown of its military presence in Europe, Poland is keen to ensure that major European allies take a greater role in defending the continent’s eastern flank.

Germany seeks partners as it moves to revitalise its military after decades of neglect, with ambitions to build the strongest conventional army on NATO’s European side, an effort that will make it a central pillar of European defence in the years ahead.

Poland’s importance as a logistics hub for Ukraine, alongside its growing economy and heavy defence investment, has made it a compelling partner for Germany and other core European countries.

“Poland started building a strong army much earlier than other countries in Western Europe,” Cezary Tomczyk, the Polish deputy defence minister, told the Associated Press news agency.

“So we are ahead when it comes to capabilities.”

“We definitely don't accept that any agreements about this part of Europe are made without Poland,” he said.

“We Germans need a strong Poland as an equal partner,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in Berlin after meeting with liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in December.

“This is in our fundamental interest.”

Germany has key role in securing Europe’s eastern borders

The defence agreement is to include plans for protecting the Baltic Sea region and details about cooperation on military mobility and infrastructure, cyber defence and new technologies.

The two countries are irreversibly tied by NATO’s defence plans, which give Germany a key role in the defence of the Baltic region, together with Poland and other countries in the central and eastern European region, said Justyna Gotkowska, deputy director of the Warsaw-based think tank Center for Eastern Studies.

“Germany is largely responsible for the defence of the Baltic states and without cooperation with Poland, that will not happen,” Gotkowska said.

The Baltic countries are often referred to as the most likely target for Russia if it were to attack NATO territory in the future.

Tomczyk, the deputy defence minister, said German soldiers, among others, would help further develop Poland’s Eastern Shield, a system of enhanced fortifications the country has been building on its borders with Belarus and Russia since 2024.

Poland is not core Europe just yet

Despite Poland's rising importance in Europe's security architecture, Germany has preferred to make major decisions on Ukraine or Iran with only France and the UK, leaving Warsaw aside.

On 7 June, leaders of the three Western European countries hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London to discuss the role they might play in potential peace negotiations with Russia.

Tusk said at a news conference in Warsaw after the London meeting that he told Merz Poland should be part of the discussion about the future of Ukraine and the region.

“Any arrangements made without our participation will not be respected or binding for us,” Tusk said.

Rolf Nikel, a former German ambassador to Poland and vice president of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said Poland's role and significance within Europe and NATO have grown.

“So Poland must be taken more seriously today and, above all, must be respected more than we have seen in the past,” Nikel said.

Gotkowska, from the Centre for Eastern Studies, said that Germany needs to recognise that its economy has stagnated while Poland's economy and military strength have risen.

“The balance of power has changed in Europe in recent years," Gotkowska said.