Half of Japan firms see post-Iran war recovery taking over 6 months: Reuters Poll

TOKYO, June 18 : Nearly half of Japanese firms believe it will take more than six months for their business operations to return to normal after a ceasefire is achieved between the United States and Iran, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.

The survey took place before Washington and Tehran's interim agreement to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the start of the war on February 28, Japan has been hit with oil supply constraints and rising prices. The country imported 94 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93 per cent of those shipments passing through the strait.

Asked about the maximum time it would likely take for businesses to return to pre-war normalcy following a ceasefire, 17 per cent of respondents chose "three months", 31 per cent picked "half a year", 39 per cent selected "one year" and 8 per cent opted for "three years".

"Minesweeping takes time. We expect recovery in crude oil procurement will take a certain amount of time as well," a manager at a wholesaler wrote in the survey.

The poll was conducted by Nikkei Research for Reuters from June 3 to 12, ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's June 14 post on his Truth Social platform that a framework deal had been reached. Nikkei Research reached out to 490 companies, of which 215 responded on condition of anonymity.

The memorandum of understanding is scheduled to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. The survey's responses likely reflect a more risk‑averse outlook, but concerns over supply chains, energy costs and shipping risks remain high.

The survey showed almost all Japanese companies are worried about procurement of oil and oil products, despite the government's assurances that the country as a whole is securing the necessary supplies.

The outbreak of the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent Japan scrambling to seek alternative supply sources and draw down its national oil reserves.

About 27 per cent of respondents are deeply worried about the procurement of oil and oil products such as naphtha, and 69 per cent are somewhat worried, with the remaining 4 per cent having no such concerns, the survey showed.

"For some raw materials, we can only get two months' worth of firm supply commitment," a manager at a rubber manufacturer said.

As a major petrochemical feedstock, naphtha is used to make a wide range of products from plastic bags to automobile components.

AI IN WORKPLACE

On artificial intelligence in the workplace, 8 per cent of respondents said the growing adoption of AI is exerting a considerable impact on hiring and workforce utilisation, and 48 per cent said it has a certain degree of impact on such corporate activities.

"It is quite likely that, with the use of AI, some jobs will not require as many workers as they do now," a manager at a machinery maker said.

Some respondents said hiring of office workers will be curbed while people with AI skills will be sought after to make the best use of the cutting-edge technology.

On a potential threat from the possible misuse of advanced AI models such as Anthropic's Mythos, 30 per cent of respondents consider it an urgent issue that should be addressed as a top priority while 61 per cent view it as an extension of conventional cybersecurity challenges, the survey showed.

"It ought to be our top priority issue to tackle, but we don't have enough funds," an official at a construction company said.

Experts said Mythos' advanced coding and autonomous capabilities could sharply increase the pace of sophisticated cyberattacks.

Anthropic said last week it would disable access to its latest AI models globally in response to the Trump administration's order to block any foreign nationals from using the models.