The registration for Australia's "incredibly popular" Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) ballot will open for applications on 1 July, the Australian Department of Home Affairs announced on Wednesday.
However, Vanuatu, which has been part of the ballot for the past two years, has been left off the list of eligible countries for the 2026-2027 ballot.
The PEV offers permanent residence in Australia for up to 3000 Pacific Islanders from a set of 11 countries, which includes Timor-Leste.
It comes as Australia struggles to get Vanuatu to sign the Nakamal Agreement, which would commit the two countries to a security arrangement for ten years, with Vanuatu receiving AU$500 million.
The country is simultaneously negotiating a similar agreement with China, and left Australia empty-handed when they visited Port Vila for negotiations in December.
Vanuatu government advisor Glen Craig said the timing between the Nakamal debacle and the two-yearly visa rounds is hard to ignore.
"Vanuatu [is] holding firm on the priorities it has stated plainly from the outset - climate and mobility," he wrote in a LinkedIn post.
It is difficult to read the removal as anything other than leverage: a signal that access to opportunity for ni-Vanuatu depends on agreement to terms set elsewhere.
Craig said the Pacific region reads this clearly.
"Australia speaks of the 'Pacific family'. Family does not withdraw a pathway thousands of ordinary people rely on in order to win a concession at the negotiating table.
"That is pressure, not partnership."
Nauru has also been left off the list, losing 100 places.
Meanwhile, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands have been added, with 100 and 50 places respectively.
The Solomon Islands has its places doubled to 300, off the back of Prime Minister Matthew Wale's trip to Australia two weeks ago.
The ABC reported on Wednesday that Wale was floating a Pacific-wide security treaty, saying that China should not play a major role in the region's security.
Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has been approached for comment.
