South Africa: South Africa Inflation Rises to Nearly Two-Year High

South Africa's inflation rate rose to its highest level in almost 2 years in May, driven by higher energy prices linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Consumer prices increased 4.5% from a year earlier, compared with 4% in April, Statistics South Africa said. The reading was below the 4.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items and is watched for signs of wider price pressure, rose to 3.8% from 3.6% in April. The South African Reserve Bank targets inflation at 3%, with a 1 percentage-point tolerance band on either side.

The inflation increase follows the central bank's decision last month to raise the benchmark rate to 7% from 6.75%. The move was aimed at limiting second-round effects from higher fuel and food costs.

Follow us on WhatsApp | LinkedIn for the latest headlines

Still, falling energy prices after an interim US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may give policymakers room to hold rates in July. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said earlier this month that the bank would decide meeting by meeting, while keeping its focus on low and stable inflation.

Key Takeaways

South Africa's May inflation data keeps pressure on the central bank, but it may not force another immediate rate hike. The headline rate rose to 4.5%, moving above the upper end of the SARB's target range, while core inflation also increased. That shows price pressure is not limited to fuel. The central bank will watch whether higher energy costs feed into transport, food, wages and business pricing. But the policy picture has changed since the May rate hike. If the Strait of Hormuz reopening lowers oil and fertiliser prices, the inflation shock may fade faster than expected. That gives the SARB room to wait for more data before moving again. The risk is that inflation expectations rise before energy prices fully normalize. For households and companies, the issue is cost pressure. Higher rates can help contain inflation, but they also raise debt-service costs and slow spending. The July decision will depend on oil prices, the rand, food costs and whether core inflation continues to rise.