House members flailing in primaries for higher office

House members who opted to run for higher office rather than seek reelection have had a poor track record this year and could end up with a higher rate of primary losses than in recent years.

Those losses have come despite members having the perks of a national profile and network, suggesting that congressional experience may be of little value to voters.

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), a former chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus who has been at the center of negotiations over top legislative items, was seen as a formidable candidate with a large war chest when he launched his gubernatorial bid in January.

But in the South Dakota primary this month, he came in third in a four-way race, missing a shot at heading to the runoff as second-place finisher, incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), notched two percentage points more.

“House Republicans have a long list of legislative accomplishments, but these are really complicated issues. I don’t think the normals are messaging as well as angry voices on the extremes,” Johnson told The Hill.

“Serving in the House is not viewed as a particularly big asset, and primary voters don’t seem to be excited to reward members with a different job,” he added.

It isn’t just Johnson.

The same night in Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) lost the Republican gubernatorial primary to GOP candidate Zach Lahn in an upset — marking the first statewide primary loss for a Trump-endorsed candidate in this cycle. President Trump later said he didn’t have the “proper information” when he made the endorsement.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) had built a massive campaign war chest and far outspent his opponents in the Illinois Senate primary, but both he and fellow Democrat Rep. Robin Kelly (Ill.) lost that contest to the Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D)

Of the House members who opted to seek higher office in this Congress, seven have won their primaries and 11 have lost. Eleven more members still have primaries this summer, with a mix of front-runners, long-shots and competitive races.

Many members have built national name recognition through their work in the House, but for many that didn’t translate to primary wins.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a fiery Freedom Caucus member, lost the runoff to be Texas attorney general after allies of Trump boosted his opponent. Social media stardom made Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) competitive in the Texas Democratic Senate primary but not enough to secure a win.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) has intentionally generated numerous headlines and taken shocking positions, but neither she nor Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) made the runoff in the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary.

Mace partially blamed the loss on her strong support for releasing the files related to the wealthy convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump last year had tried to convince Mace to remove her name from a petition to force a vote on releasing materials on Epstein.

On the Republican side, a Trump endorsement seems to be a prerequisite for any House member who wants to win their primary for higher office — though as the Feenstra race showed, it is not always a guarantee.

All six House GOP members who have won their primaries for their Senate bids so far had a Trump endorsement — Reps. Mike Collins (Ga.), Barry Moore (Ala.), Kevin Hern (Okla.), Andy Barr (Ky.), Ashley Hinson (Iowa) and Julia Letlow (La.).

While each race has different dynamics, analysts are pointing to a common theme in races where House members lost primaries: an anti-establishment, anti-Washington feeling.

“Partly I think it’s an anti-incumbent feeling, and he was the incumbent if you will,” Iowa state Rep. Brent Siegrist (R) told local Iowa news station KMTV 3, referring to Feenstra’s loss.

“The people that are a little fed up with everything from gas prices to Iran or whatever it may be, they were kind of looking for somebody a little outside of the establishment,” Siegrist said.

If exasperation with Washington, D.C., politicians is hindering Republicans in their races for higher office, it may also be contributing to the high number of members who are making a run.

Just 16 House members sought higher office in 2024; 17 in 2022; 12 in 2020; and 21 in 2018, according to data compiled by Ballotpedia and reviewed by The Hill. This cycle — if counting now-New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) — that number is 29.

The sizable majority of those are Republicans, who are facing tough odds of retaining control of the House this year — suggesting that members uninterested in staying in a likely minority in the next Congress are more willing to shoot their shot at a higher office instead.

When all is said and done, it is possible that the rate of primary losses for House members who sought higher office could be among the highest, if not the highest, since 2018.

In 2024, 31 percent of the House members lost primary bids for higher office; that figure was 47 percent in 2022; 58 percent in 2020, which counts four House Democrats who unsuccessfully sought their party’s presidential nomination; and 33 percent in 2018.

When counting outstanding races in July, August and September, the overall primary loss rate for House members seeking higher office in this Congress is likely to be in the range of 45 percent to 58 percent.

Updated at 7:38 a.m. EDT

House members flailing in primaries for higher office

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