Former minister gives his impressions on U.S.-Iran deal, stressing Europe must be proactive

Former Portuguese economy minister – and before that the chairman of oil and gas company Partex – António Costa Silva has been talking freely about the U.S.-Iran agreement, and what it means for Europe.

The interesting aspect of viewpoints like this one is that they are those of people who used to be at the forefront of governments, but are now unfettered by political rules and pressures.

There is much more chance that they talk sense, in other words, than ‘bla bla’.

Costa Silva was speaking to Lusa in Luanda, on the sidelines of the presentation of Deloitte’s “Banca em Análise” study, at a time when Washington and Tehran have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) establishing a ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and apparently providing for negotiations on a final agreement within the next 60 days.

“It is clear that the agreement is always a relief, but the agreement is nothing more than an MoU — the crucial issues must be negotiated over the next 60 days,” he said, adding that “the focus of the agreement, as the US President has explained, is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”, which is actually ‘the weakest point of the agreement’, given that the strait (through which around a 5th of the world’s oil passes) was open on the day the United States and Israel launched their attack on Iran.

“We have returned to a sort of square one, which calls into question why this war was waged in the first place, and what its objectives were,” he said – highlighting the “dire situation for the global economy” that the conflict has caused

The MoU stipulates that Iran must take measures to ensure the resumption of merchant shipping through the strait within 30 days, but a return to normality is not expected to be immediate, due to damage to energy infrastructure during the war.

The author of the Strategic Vision for Portugal’s Economic Recovery Plan 2020–2030, which served as the basis for the Portuguese Plan for Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), António Costa Silva also highlighted another contradiction in the conflict and its outcome.

“Essentially, the war was intended to prevent Iran from acquiring a weapon of mass destruction, yet it has ended providing Iran with another weapon of mass destruction,” he suggested, referring to the ability to strangle traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a capability that Tehran had never used before, but which the war has shown can be “lethal for the global economy”.

Costa Silva warned equally of the growing rift in the Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia taking divergent positions, and of the widespread fear that Iran might once again resort to blocking the strait.

“We have two erratic leaderships, the American and the Iranian, which are becoming increasingly radical, with infighting within the regime, and all of this seems very fragile,” he said, acknowledging that the markets will “breathe a sigh of relief” in the immediate term, but that the situation requires constant monitoring.

Costa Silva also directed criticism at Europe, whose leadership, he considers, is “unfortunately very erratic” and “reactive”.

“Europe reacts to events; it is never a driving force; it is always waiting for the United States to make a move, and I think that is a strategic mistake,” he said. This is a time when the struggle between the world’s major powers makes it crucial for the European Union to forge alliances with various parts of the world, and do so proactively.

“The more alliances there are with the European Union, the less likely it is that these militaristic adventures will take place,” he added.

In the former minister’s view, US diplomacy “practically does not exist”. The US negotiating team, he said, is made up of “property developers with little understanding of geopolitical issues” – which is why these agreements are “always very fragile”.

He thus called on the European Union, which possesses “a strong diplomatic apparatus”, to use it, and use it well.

In his speech, the current professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico, also criticised the “predatory policy of the world’s major powers”, lamenting that the world is returning to 19th-century imperialism, with the decline in international trade being ‘one of the most negative aspects of this regression’.

Source: LUSA