Will gas prices keep falling? It’s likely, but Mother Nature could interrupt that

(NEXSTAR) – For the first time since March, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has fallen below $4. It comes after the U.S. and Iran signed an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Barring any changes to that agreement — and one other major factor, according to an expert — gas prices are only expected to fall further in the coming weeks.

As of Thursday, AAA reports that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is below $4 in 28 states, with two — New Mexico and New Jersey — within three cents of that valuable benchmark. After surpassing $6 a gallon at one point, prices have even come down in California, hitting $5.642 per gallon on Thursday.

If conditions hold, prices are expected to continue falling across the U.S., though it could take weeks or months for oil to start flowing through the Strait again, according to the Associated Press.

By then, it’s possible something else will have thrown a wrench into falling fuel prices: a hurricane.

Gas prices could fall below $3 a gallon later this year, and diesel could come in under $4 a gallon (the national average is $5.129 as of Thursday, per AAA), Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, wrote in a post to X.

He noted this with a caveat: “if everything goes well and no major hurricane disruptions.”

The U.S. relies heavily on the oil and gas sourced from the Gulf of America. Storms in the region can impact production, however. A 2023 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggested that “a high-impact hurricane event … could result in a temporary loss of monthly offshore crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) and a nearly equivalent temporary loss of refining capacity.”

That could, in turn, lead to prices at the pump jumping 25 to 30 cents per gallon, the report predicted.

In 2021, for example, Hurricane Ida knocked out a refinery complex and caused gas prices to spike in the immediate aftermath. Hurricane Ian, which caused “a significant humanitarian and economic” impact in 2022, on the other hand, did not cause major damage to refining hubs, per EIA. (While Ian’s impact was more limited, refinery issues did cause price jumps in other parts of the U.S.)

It’s too soon to say what, if any, impact this year’s hurricane season will have on pump prices.

NOAA has predicted that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could be below normal thanks to an El Niño that could be one of the strongest ever. The first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed off the coast of Texas earlier this week. It is not expected to become a hurricane.