Lebanon becomes latest battleground in Turkish-Israeli tensions

Lebanon is emerging as the newest flashpoint in the increasingly strained relations between Turkey and Israel, with the former's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issuing a stark warning that Turkish security begins in Beirut.

Earlier this month, Erdogan addressed his parliamentary deputies with a forceful condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria, warning that Turkey’s security now stretches beyond its borders, reaching as far as Damascus and Beirut.

Tensions between Israel and Turkey have been steadily escalating, with Erdogan vocally supporting Hamas and leading the chorus of condemnation against Israel’s military campaigns in both Gaza and Lebanon.

“Lebanon is a new area of competition or dispute between Israel and Turkey," says Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies think tank.

“There was definitely concern in Israel after hearing Erdogan's speech. The fact that he speaks about Syria and Lebanon as part of Turkey's security is, of course, a problem for Israel….I think this adds complexity to already a very tense relationship between Israel and Turkey."

Shifting influence

In recent years, Turkey has quietly but steadily expanded its soft-power presence in Lebanon, dispatching aid and broadening the reach of its humanitarian groups.

This comes as Iran’s influence in the region loosens, signalled by the collapse of the Tehran-backed Assad regime in Syria and growing pressure on Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Turkey is concerned about Lebanon because it can create new venues of Israeli zone of influence, when the power of Iran is on the decline,” said international relations professor Ozlem Tur, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

Tur notes that Turkey is eager to seize the opportunities created by these shifting dynamics: “Turkey feels a vacuum of power – and who is going to fill it? And all of this is part of a larger geo-strategic position that Turkey wants to put itself in."

Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training

Erdogan has frequently accused Israel of trying to assert dominance across the region, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is believed to hold vast untapped energy reserves.

Ankara suspects Israeli influence was behind Lebanon’s November 2025 landmark maritime demarcation deal with Cyprus, paving the way for potential exploration of offshore gas fields and energy cooperation in the Mediterranean – a deal Turkey argues undermines its interests, as well as those of the Turkish Cypriot administration and Syria.

“Lebanon joining the competition there is of course worrying [for Ankara]”, Tur added. "This maritime dimension adds to an already competitive environment, and it makes Lebanon a partner in this competition."

Trump card

Meanwhile, Turkey-Israel rivalries continue to escalate.

“The Israelis, especially the hard-liners, have been really working hard to get the United States on board with their plans to take Turkey as their next target,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

However, Guvenc suggests that Erdogan retains a trump card. so to speak.

"The personal rapport between the two leaders, Trump and Erdogan, has been an impediment to the materialisation of such American backing to whatever plan Israelis might have in regard to Turkey."

Trump’s recent criticism of Israel’s bombing of Beirut and Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon after a peace agreement with Iran, will likely further strengthen Erdogan's hand with Trump, at a time when Washington is increasingly viewing Ankara as key to its regional goals.

Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner

“For stability, for mediation, for assistance... in these aspects definitely the US is looking for Ankara and looking for the role Ankara can play in relaxing tensions in the region,” said Lindenstrauss. "But Ankara itself is raising tensions and, of course, Erdogan's inflammatory rhetoric to Israel is not stabilising anything.”

Trump is set to visit Ankara for next month’s NATO summit, where Turkey’s regional role will likely dominate discussions between US and Turkish leaders – a meeting poised to deepen Israel’s unease and growing sense of isolation.