Why rebel Uddhav Sena MPs face hurdle in bid to repeat Shinde’s 2022 revolt

Even as six of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s nine Lok Sabha MPs remain at the centre of a rebel crisis, leaders of the Uddhav Thackeray-led party say that unlike Eknath Shinde’s 2022 rebellion, justifying a split this time may not be as easy despite similar reasons being cited now.

Sena (UBT) insiders said the rebel MPs’ reasons for their possible defection include the party moving away from Bal Thackeray’s ideology, its growing proximity to the Congress, and the buzz around a “potential merger” with the Congress.

So far, none of the six rebel MPs – Sanjay Jadhav, Sanjay Dina Patil, Nagesh Patil Ashtikar, Omraje Nimbalkar, Sanjay Deshmukh and Bhausaheb Wakchaure – has openly levelled these allegations.

However, leaders from the Shinde-led Shiv Sena have again begun attacking Uddhav using virtually the same arguments made during the 2022 rebellion, drawing pushback from their Sena (UBT) counterparts.

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2022 split

When Shinde walked out of the then united Shiv Sena in June 2022, he publicly defended the revolt from day one.

The Shinde-led rebel MLAs’ group had then accused Uddhav of abandoning Thackeray’s ideology, citing the Sena’s move to break its decades-old alliance with the BJP following the 2019 Assembly elections to join hands with the Congress and then united Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in order to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.

The Shinde group maintained that the BJP remained the Sena’s “natural ally”, complaining that while the Sena had Uddhav as the chief minister, NCP leaders steadily gained influence at the district level at the cost of Sena legislators.

There were also repeated complaints that Uddhav had become inaccessible. Rebel MLAs had often mocked Uddhav for “sitting at home” instead of travelling across Maharashtra and meeting workers and legislators.

Much of that old line is now being heard again from the Shinde camp.

Speaking at the Sena’s foundation day event Friday, Shinde again said “ideology, not blood relation” decides who carries Thackeray’s legacy.

Sena (UBT) leaders say that unlike the 2022 revolt, none of the rebel MPs have come forward to call out the leadership.

They point out that despite losing the original Sena name, symbol and much of the organisation after the 2022 split, the Sena (UBT) won nine Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra in the 2024 elections, performing much better than expected. They ask how candidates could have won if the organisation was weak, campaign support inadequate and leadership inaccessible, as alleged by the rival camp.

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Sena (UBT)’s pushback

Speaking at his party’s own Sena foundation day event, Uddhav asked how the party could have won nine Lok Sabha seats if the organisation had weakened after the split.

Nashik MP Rajabhau Waje publicly dismissed claims about Uddhav’s accessibility. “I got the ticket without even asking for it. There has never been any issue in meeting Uddhav saheb. Whenever I have needed to meet him, I have got an appointment immediately,” Waje told The Indian Express.

Senior party leader Arvind Sawant said: “Tell me which MP has said this. Give me one name and I will tell you how many times that MP has met Uddhav ji.”

Uddhav also rejected speculation that the Sena (UBT) was moving towards a “merger” with Congress. He said the Sena remained allied with the BJP for nearly three decades without merging and there was no reason to believe the party would merge with the Congress.

Leaders like activist-scholar Sushma Andhare and former Mumbai mayor Kishori Pednekar argued the latest developments were “less about internal dissatisfaction and more about political poaching by the BJP and the Shinde camp”.

Discontent in Uddhav Sena

At the same time, Uddhav Sena leaders admit privately that not everything was fine internally. Some MPs had become unhappy over the last few months, though reasons differed.

In Parbhani, Sanjay Jadhav had shown signs of unease for months amid organisational friction, and in May had publicly remarked in the presence of senior Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut, “Today I am with you, can’t say about tomorrow.” This had triggered speculation over his future though Raut later downplayed the remark.

In the case of Mumbai North East MP Sanjay Dina Patil, Shinde reached out to him following an accident involving his wife earlier this year, with Sena (UBT) leaders suggesting Patil had felt disappointed over the lack of similar outreach from his own leadership.

Dharashiv MP Omraje Nimbalkar’s name surprised many because he had largely been seen as an Uddhav loyalist after the 2022 split. After a special court acquitted NCP leader Padamsinh Patil, who is also Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar’s brother, and seven others in the 2006 murder of Omraje’s father Pawanraje Nimbalkar, the Dharashiv MP said, “I will make my political decision (of whether to join the Shinde Sena) after discussing with my supporters in the next two days. But I wish to clarify one thing, whatever will be my decision, I have never spoken against Uddhav ji and Aaditya ji, neither yesterday nor today and I will not speak against them in future at all.”

2026 rebellion

Sena (UBT) leaders say the key question about rebel party MPs remains the reasons being cited for their move.

Several rebel MPs won in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when sympathy for Uddhav after the 2022 split had worked strongly in the party’s favour, consolidating anti-BJP and anti-Shinde votes. Some of them had joined the Sena (UBT) shortly before the election.

“If the Congress alliance or ideology was such a big issue, why contest elections under the same leadership in 2024? Why raise these questions only after winning?” a senior Sena (UBT) leader said.

Some within the party privately believe the issue may be far simpler – that the Sena (UBT) has now spent nearly four years out of power. For MPs dependent on government access, development works and constituency influence, political priorities may have started changing.

Sena (UBT) MLA Bhaskar Jadhav recently hinted at the same reality when he remarked that political loyalties often shift with circumstances.

A Mumbai-based political observer said that is what separates the current situation from the 2022 rebellion. “In 2022, Shinde had a clear case and many people within Shiv Sena understood where he was coming from. This time, leaders who fought under Uddhav barely a year ago are suddenly saying ideology has become an issue. That argument is harder to sell politically,” the observer said.

What is clear, however, is that unlike the 2022 case, the debate in state political circles this time is not only over who may leave Sena (UBT), but whether they have a convincing political basis for doing it.