The winter break is coming, but before then Labor wants deals with the Greens on tax and the Coalition on the NDIS

Things get a little frantic during the final parliament sitting before a long break. Not quite “silly season”; it’s more like settlement season, or “let’s make a deal” season.

A thumping lower house majority gave Labor the confidence to throw up contentious tax changes it hadn’t taken to last year’s election. But a rockier path through the Senate means the Albanese government can’t easily get its changes through the parliament – and quickly end the focus on a so-far messy process.

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers said their negative gearing and capital gains tax changes had one eye on the rise of Pauline Hanson, in a bid to stave off rising populist economic anger.

But the government has continued to go backwards in the polls, as One Nation claims to have raised more than $4m from thousands of donors in its “fire the liar” campaign which focused on a “broken promise” narrative.

Angus Taylor, still officially the opposition leader despite battling for oxygen against Hanson, is growing louder in his critiques of Labor’s alleged “assault on aspiration” and “half-arsed” carve-outs for business.

So the government is keen for a win and to get its package through parliament this sitting fortnight before the long winter break. Labor would like to spend the next few weeks talking up the positives, rather than haggling over the negatives.

Expect picture opportunities with senior ministers having cups of tea with newly-minted first home buyers, or clad in hi-vis at development sites, to ramp up over July and August. Albanese wants these changes through parliament before politicians jet out of Canberra in early July: his $250 tax offset, $1,000 instant tax deduction and the housing changes.

Enter the Greens, stage left. As was revealed at the end of the last sitting week, the minor party is agreeable to Labor’s tax changes and could shake hands on a deal early this week. But the Greens are furious about the government’s proposed NDIS cuts.

The Coalition, of course, is equally furious about the tax changes while being supportive of the NDIS reforms.

Normally, that would see Labor cutting deals with the Greens and the Liberals on the changes each likes. But such is the fury of the two parties that they could be happy to block where they can.

Labor and the Greens remain in productive discussions about the tax changes (the partial backdown on ministerial discretion for Chalmers came after Greens criticism), but expect the minor party to do whatever it can to stop the NDIS changes from progressing.

They believe an inquiry into the NDIS overhaul – which is due to table a delayed report on Tuesday – will be extended. The Liberals want a longer inquiry on tax. There’s brinksmanship all around this week.

That’s not to say the Greens are the only ones concerned about the NDIS changes. After weeks of harrowing testimony to the Senate about the effects of the cuts on the disability community, the opposition’s NDIS spokesperson, Melissa McIntosh, last week warned of “the rush to cut expenditure”, stating that “people are not line items on a spreadsheet”.

There are whispers that some Labor MPs are also uneasy. A Labor-led committee report warned the changes appeared “retrogressive”.

Albanese will, separately, convene a national cabinet meeting on Monday. Top of the agenda will be the fuel excise cut and whether the states and territories will agree to forego GST revenue to help fund the petrol relief. It’s a fair bet the premiers and chief ministers’ alarm at the NDIS changes, and how the states will deliver “like-for-like” services, will also come up.

The argument that delaying the NDIS legislation could delay $17bn in expected savings is not holding much sway with the Greens. Nick McKim last week criticised “$33bn a year just in negative gearing handouts for people with two or more properties” while Larissa Waters claimed $17bn could be raised another way – through a gas tax, which Labor has ruled out.

The focus this fortnight will be on doing deals. It’s not clear whether the government will secure two and enter the winter break on a high, or with none, meaning a long wait until mid-August for another chance to change its fortunes.