Live: ASX set to slip as fragile Iran war ceasefire keeps markets on edge

Despite Wall Street closing for a public holiday, global markets lost ground on Friday on news that the resumption of US- Iran peace talks had stalled over Israel's renewed offensive in Lebanon.

Futures trading point to the ASX slipping 0.2% on opening, while markets focus on renewed threats and the whether Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 6:51am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 6:51am

Market snapshot

By Stephen Letts

ASX 200 futures: -0.2% to 8,812 points

ASX 200 (Friday): -0.9% to 8,829 points

Australian dollar: flat at 70.11 US cents

Wall Street: closed

Europe (Friday): Dax -0.2%, FTSE -0.4%, Eurostoxx -0.5%

Spot gold: -1.2% to $US4,160/ounce

Oil: Brent futures +0.5% to $US80.38/barrel, WTI futures +1.2% to $U77.54/barrel

Iron ore (Friday): -0.4% to $US98.85/tonne

Copper (LME): -1.2% to $US13,655/tonne

Bitcoin: +0.7% at $US63,911

Prices current at around 7:00am AEST

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Key Event

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:54am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:54am

Metcash profit slips

By Stephen Letts

Supermarket supplier and operator Metcash has announced a 4% slide in full year net profit to $279 million.

The underlying net profit of $269 million was in line with the pre-announced guidance given last month.

Sales revenue of $17.34 billion was relatively flat.

Metcash will pay a fully franked final dividend of 9.5 cents per share.

Key Event

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:48am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:48am

ASX indices rebalancing

By Stephen Letts

The quarterly rebalancing of ASX indices kicks in today with some notable ins and outs.

The top 20 is unaffected, while in the ASX 50, tech services business ALS, which specialises in measuring and quality assurance will be included at the expense of Pro Medicus.

Uranium miner Paladin Energy replaces Metcash in the ASX100, while there's a bit more shuffling in the ASX 200 with the likes of GuzmanY Gomez, Siteminder, Temple & Webster and WEB Travel getting the boot.

The big question though is, could this end of the blog's favourite ASX 200 sector, education services, with its sole member IDP Education being expelled?

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:32am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:32am

RBA staff urged to reject "insulting" wage deal

By Stephen Letts

If there is going to be an outbreak of wage fuelled inflation, Reserve Bank management is certainly doing its best not to fuel the flames.

The Financial Services Union has urged its members at the RBA to reject management's wage offer, deriding it as "insulting", "disappointing" and a joke".

The RBA has offered staff a 9.5% pay rise over three years - starting with a 3.5% rise this year.

As the FSU points out, the proposed pay rises for RBA staff are also below the current consumer price index of 4.2%.

The union is asking for 15% over three years.

Negotiations are currently stalled.

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:21am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:21am

Oil prices heading higher

By Stephen Letts

Oil traders have just logged on for the day and immediately futures prices are heading higher following this morning's collapse of peace talks in Switzerland and the Strait of Hormuz looking like it's closed again to oil shipments.

At 8:20am AEST:

Brent crude futures: +1.6% to $US81.84/barrel

West Texas Intermediate crude futures: +2.9% to $US78.83/barrel

Key Event

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:13am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 8:13am

Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed?

By Stephen Letts

Is the Strait open or closed? That's the big question of the morning - the direction of global oil prices is very much dependent on the answer.

The answer, according to Windward Maritime, appears to be, having briefly reopened, it is again closed to all shipping bar "dark" Iranian-linked, sanctioned vessels.

Windward says the current flow resembles the "late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait."

This calculation was made before the latest barrage of threats and insults on President Trump's social media page and before the "peace" talks in Switzerland abruptly ended.

Key Event

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 7:56am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 7:56am

ASX set to slip as a fragile ceasefire keeps markets on edge

By Stephen Letts

With US markets closed for the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday, it would be easy to say nothing much happened on Friday — but that wouldn't be quite right.

Looking beyond the shuttered towers of Wall Street, there was global unease about whether the US-Iran ceasefire, which had sparked a rally across the week, would hold after planned peace talks were called off.

The global MSCI equities index dipped 0.2% and European markets were generally lower.

US futures for Monday's reopening were down around 0.2%, as were ASX 200 futures.

Oil futures nudged higher, but that should be weighed against an 8% fall across the week.

Tankers had started to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, but that traffic abruptly halted over the weekend.

"We concede that there will be a number of ships eager to leave the Gulf's warm waters, and we think crude will struggle to find its footing amid a flurry of 'open for business' headlines, and yet we question the durability of the deal," RBC Capital Markets commodities team wrote in a note to clients.

"In the event that the deal holds … the Hormuz reopening trajectory could resemble something similar to the Red Sea, where shipping traffic remains over 50% below pre-crisis levels despite the Houthis signing a deal in May 2025 to end hostilities."

Gold slipped again, chalking up its fifth straight week of losses.

Iron ore and copper also lost ground, with a stronger US dollar and the cancelled peace talks weighing on sentiment.

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 6:50am

Mon 22 Jun 2026 at 6:50am

Good morning

By Stephen Letts

Good morning and welcome to another day on the ABC markets and finance blog.

Stephen Letts from ABC business team limbering up for a blow-by-blow coverage of the day's events, where every post is hopefully a winner, but none should be construed as financial advice.

With Wall Street closed on Friday, the best guide to how things are likely to unfold today are the ASX 200 futures.

When trading closed on Saturday morning, the futures were pointing to a 0.2% fall on opening — in keeping with the decline on European markets after the fragility of the ceasefire deal was exposed (again).

The collapse of peace talks in Switzerland this morning and on-going threats to close the barely reopened Strait of Hormuz will do little to trading improve sentiment.

On the corporate front, Metcash is expected to release its FY 2026 results this morning, but given it was effectively pre-released last month, no ructions are expected.

As always, the game's afoot, so let's get blogging.