South Africa: SA Farmers and Agribusinesses Are in a Pensive Mood

South Africa's agricultural sector boasts impressive export figures and job growth, yet farmers fear global instability, disease outbreaks and rising input costs.

The mood among South African farmers and agribusinesses remains downbeat. To some, this may come as a surprise, as the sector recently posted positive economic performance.

For example, in the first quarter of 2026, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled $3.7-billion, up 11% from the same period a year ago. Better exports were a function of both higher export volumes across various products and higher commodity prices.

We have had favourable production conditions for field crops. For example, in the current 2025-26 production season, South Africa expects a record summer grain and oilseed harvest of 21.1 million tonnes, up 3% year on year. This production figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.

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The poultry industry is also performing well and benefiting from affordable feed (maize and soybean prices are down by 10%-30% from a year ago).

We also see robust volumes in fruits and vegetables, although in the second quarter of the year, we saw a slight impact of the recent floods on the sector.

Most notably, the GDP data continue to show strong performance in agriculture. The agricultural gross value-added expanded by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2026, up from 0.4% in...