Resident foreigner numbers in Portugal poised for major update

Portugal is set to receive one of the most-anticipated statistical updates in recent years today, as INE, the country’s national statistics agency, publishes revised figures on the number of foreigners resident in this country.

The release comes after months of delays linked to a complex review of migration data. It is expected to provide the clearest picture yet of the scale of immigration-driven population growth in Portugal.

Policymakers, economists and local authorities have been waiting for these figures after what several government officials describe as a statistical “blind spot” surrounding Portugal’s foreign population.

Officially, INE data has remained frozen at “just over one million foreign residents at the end of 2023” – despite a dramatic increase in migration flows and the regularisation of hundreds of thousands of residency applications since then.

Today’s numbers will provide the most comprehensive official snapshot yet of how immigration is reshaping Portugal’s population, labour market and public services.

Government expects significant increase

Speaking in parliament in May, António Leitão Amaro said the revised figures would almost certainly show a substantial rise in both Portugal’s total population and its immigrant population.

“There is no doubt that the new data will reveal a significant increase in the total population and the immigrant population during this period,” he said.

The minister’s confidence is based on data from AIMA, which indicated that around 1.5 million foreign citizens were living in Portugal in 2024.

According to AIMA, the foreign population has quadrupled over the past seven years, and doubled in just the last three.

Why INE and AIMA figures may differ

The government has cautioned that the INE figures may not match those published by AIMA because the two organisations use different methodologies.

AIMA counts foreign nationals holding valid residence permits, individuals undergoing regularisation procedures and those benefiting from humanitarian protection status.

INE, however, measures people who have been resident in Portugal for more than 12 months, regardless of their documentation status.

That means the statistics may include undocumented migrants and children who have arrived with their families but have not yet obtained residence permits, while excluding some seasonal workers and recent arrivals.

Leitão Amaro noted that “a large group of children attending schools” and undocumented migrants may appear in the INE figures, but not in AIMA’s records.

440,000 residency cases forced statistical overhaul

One of the main reasons for the publication delay was the processing of approximately 440,000 pending residence applications, many linked to the now-defunct “manifestation of interest” immigration system.

The backlog was tackled by a dedicated government task force, generating a vast volume of new information that required extensive validation and reclassification by INE.

According to Leitão Amaro, the agency was forced to undertake an unprecedented review of demographic data, redistributing regularised cases to the years in which migrants originally entered Portugal.

The revision could affect a wide range of national indicators, including population estimates, migration flows, GDP per capita calculations, healthcare and education ratios, and even demographic indicators such as birth and mortality rates.

Leitão Amaro described the exercise as “a brutal and brutally complex operation”, involving the cross-referencing of multiple administrative databases.

Public services already show impact of migration growth

While the updated population figures have yet to be released, government data already illustrates the scale of Portugal’s demographic transformation.

Between 2017 and 2024:

Foreign pupils in public schools increased from 40,000 to 70,000.

Primary healthcare consultations involving foreign citizens rose from 326,000 to 1.4 million.

Foreign patients registered with Portugal’s National Health Service increased from 328,000 to 871,000.

Foreign contributors to the Social Security system climbed from 244,000 to more than one million.

The growing participation of immigrants in sectors such as agriculture, tourism and services has been widely credited with helping to boost Social Security revenues and support public finances.

Nearly 459,000 residence cards issued

The government has also released fresh details on the immigration regularisation drive carried out by AIMA.

According to Leitão Amaro, the current administration inherited approximately 933,000 pending immigration cases.

Of the roughly 450,000 “manifestations of interest” applications awaiting decisions, 98% have now been processed.

In total, authorities have issued 458,989 residence cards and recorded:

933,000 notifications;

763,000 appointments;

568,000 immigrants attended;

528,000 decisions;

473,000 approvals;

Around 52,000 rejections.

The operation involved AIMA, a dedicated mission structure and an external pool of lawyers and solicitors, who have collectively received around €3.7 million for their work.

source; Executive Digest