Cracks are showing in Trump’s blue-collar base | Steven Greenhouse

If any demographic group was key to Donald Trump’s election victories in 2016 and 2024, it was white, blue-collar voters. But in perhaps perilous news for Republicans, Trump’s support from that group has plummeted – as many white, working-class voters have grown upset about everything from increased inflation and gas prices to Trump’s war against Iran. These glaring cracks in Trump’s blue-collar base point to big trouble for Republicans in this November’s midterm elections.

In 2024, Trump won 66% of white voters without a college degree, but a new CBS News poll found that 54% of that demographic disapprove of his performance. That was up from 45% disapproval in February (before Trump began bombing Iran) and up sharply from 32% in February 2025.

This shows severe cracks in Trump’s white, blue-collar base, a group that candidate Trump wooed by promising to crack down on immigration, to reduce prices on day one, to bring back manufacturing jobs and to not start new foreign wars. Many blue-collar voters see that Trump has failed to deliver on any of these promises except for his massive crackdown on immigrants – that crackdown has grown unpopular, however, after Trump’s masked agents killed Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

Trump’s blue-collar base didn’t get the lower prices that he promised; instead, they face painful 4.2% inflation, the highest rate in three years. Trump has utterly failed on another important promise to blue-collar Americans: to increase manufacturing jobs. Ever since Trump returned to office, the number of factory jobs has declined by 68,000. As for Trump’s promise not to begin any foreign wars, many blue-collar Americans are furious that he launched his unsuccessful war against Iran, which, to their huge dismay, has pushed up gasoline and grocery prices.

Peggy Liff, a 57-year-old welder in Ohio who voted three times for Trump, said she was thrilled by the low inflation during Trump’s first term, but now she’s upset with Trump. “He’s concentrating on other things, like overseas, Iran,” she told the Washington Post. “He says he’s doing it for us, but I don’t see where that’s happening.”

The fact that a sizable chunk of Trump’s blue-collar base has soured on him should be a boon for Democratic candidates in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and other states where there is a large, white working class. To increase their chances of taking back the House and Senate, Democrats need to tap into the growing blue-collar disenchantment with Trump and Republicans. And let’s not forget that it’s not just white, blue-collar voters who have turned against Trump – many working-class African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans are also upset that Trump plunged the US into war and that gas prices have soared and that tomato prices are up 32% over the past year, coffee prices up 17% and beef up 13%.

While Trump has focused on warring against Iran and building his gilded ballroom and 250ft-tall arch that will mainly be a monument to his ego, blue-collar Americans have been feeling blue about many of Trump’s policies. They dislike his tariffs, which have raised prices on many items, from furniture to coffee to fresh fruit. Many Americans are peeved that while Trump backed more than $1tn in tax cuts for the ultra-rich in his “big, beautiful bill”, he stuck it to working-class Americans by championing a bill that chopped Medicaid and food assistance by over $1tn.

Blue-collar Americans can see the country’s rapidly increasing income and wealth equality. A New York Times headline captured the way many non-affluent Americans feel: Wages Are Falling. Wealth Is Surging. No Wonder Americans Are Unhappy. That Times story noted that the same week Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report found that surging energy prices had erased 18 months of wage gains for the average American worker. Many blue-collar Americans no doubt dislike that the Trump loves having billionaires at his side, that Trump has pushed repeatedly to weaken labor unions, and that he let Musk run amok slashing federal agencies and firing dedicated federal employees.

Because of all these things, Trump’s popularity is in the dumps with blue-collar Americans, even as he seeks to charm them with cage matches at the White House. According to a recent Fox News poll, just 33% of white, blue-collar voters approve of how Trump has handled the economy and just 25% approve of his handling of inflation. In good news for Democrats, a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll found that 44% of white voters who didn’t graduate from college said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate this year than a Republican, up from 30% right before the 2018 midterms.

John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has long worked for Trump, says this disenchantment is dangerous for Republicans. “It’s working-class voters who are not happy with the Republican party, and they may not come out and vote,” McLaughlin told the New York Times.

Trump made things worse for Republicans with some insensitive statements that showed stunning callousness toward the tens of millions of Americans who are struggling economically. Last week, with inflation rising, Trump told reporters: “I love the inflation.” That came a month after Trump said: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” supposedly because he was so concerned about winning the war against Iran.

These comments will make for great Democratic campaign ads. But the Democrats need to do more than just attack Trump. They need to put forward ideas that will excite working-class Americans, such as levying new taxes on billionaires to free up billions of dollars to, for instance, make childcare far more affordable. Democrats should also push some of the ideas the Congressional Progressive caucus is pushing, among them making gasoline more affordable by imposing an excess profits tax on big oil companies and using that money to subsidize gas purchases. (Big oil’s profits have soared recently due to the war with Iran.) With housing prices high, the Democrats should offer to make housing more affordable by proposing a $20,000 down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers.

A growing number of Democrats get that it’s important to have a pro-worker message, but not enough do. It has become increasingly clear that Trump and Republicans are doing next to nothing to lift blue-collar Americans, and that means Democrats need to step up. As Trump’s base sours on him, the Democrats’ midterm chances soar.

Steven Greenhouse is a journalist and author, focusing on labor and the workplace, as well as economic and legal issues