Right sweeps Latin America with new victory in Colombia

The new wave of right-wing populist leaders continues to sweep across Latin America, adding another victory in Colombia with the election of Abelardo de la Espriella. What’s driving the trend? And is it here to stay?

With the notable exceptions of Brazil and Mexico, it’s difficult to find a presidential palace in the region that is not occupied by a charismatic right-wing leader with a hardline message.

The right has won elections from Argentina to Honduras. But experts see little evidence of a structural ideological shift. Instead, they point to a political landscape that favours outsiders – candidates from outside the traditional political establishment.

What unites the winners, according to far-right specialist Lisa Zanotti, is their ability to channel resentment, build a powerful personal brand and forge strategic alliances.

Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador who has jailed almost two percent of the country's population, may have provided the template.

Offering seemingly simple solutions to crime, economic stagnation and a discredited political elite, he enjoys astronomical popularity at home and regularly tops opinion polls across the region.

His model has been widely replicated, including by De la Espriella. Also invariably impeccably groomed, the Colombian has jokingly been dubbed the “Temu Bukele” by some commentators in his country.

According to Zanotti, a researcher at the Institute of Democracy at Central European University in Budapest, Latin America's presidential systems may help fuel this trend.

“Presidential elections allow political entrepreneurs to bypass weak or discredited parties and establish a direct relationship with voters,” she said.

Winning formula

“In the 2000s we saw the ‘Pink Tide’ governments in Latin America,” said Anthony Pereira of Tulane University in the United States, who sees Latin American populism as a constantly evolving tradition.

The left achieved success through welfare programmes, wage increases, employment formalisation and expanded access to credit and education. This occurred during a commodities export boom.

“The number of people living in poverty fell,” Pereira said.

Then, as commodity prices collapsed, “the optimism of the 2010s turned into disappointment”.

At the same time, “organised crime grew stronger and came to control entire neighbourhoods, even prisons. Voters began responding more enthusiastically to politicians who claimed to be anti-establishment.”

De la Espriella appealed not only to anti-left voters, but also to a growing middle class frustrated by insecurity, an issue that has dominated recent elections throughout Latin America.

While the left has struggled to formulate a response, the right has promised quick fixes such as bombing campaigns or mega-prisons.

Wave of violence

Around the world, organised crime is still often associated with ruthless cocaine cartels and reckless kingpins such as Pablo Escobar.

But in countries such as Ecuador and Brazil, while still violent, these groups have evolved into multi-billion-dollar conglomerates.

Rather than simply shipping cocaine to the United States, they are now embedded in the daily lives of Latin Americans: extorting bus drivers in Peru or taking over gold mines in the Venezuelan jungle.

“Too much extortion. Businesses are closing. People can’t sell anything,” said Sandra Gutiérrez, a 60-year-old voter in Barranquilla, a De la Espriella stronghold.

According to the latest Latinobarómetro survey, 75 percent of respondents across a dozen Latin American countries said crime had increased over the past year.

One-third said they or their relatives had been directly affected by crime during that period.

Uncle Sam

Right-wing governments in the United States, Russia, Israel and Europe have also sought to export their model or identify leaders in Latin America who share their worldview.

Donald Trump openly tried to influence several elections across the region.

He threatened Colombia with the withdrawal of billions of dollars in military aid if Senator Iván Cepeda, an ally of President Gustavo Petro whom Trump regards as a “radical Marxist,” won the presidency.

The result was an increase in Petro’s approval ratings. In Sunday’s election, his chosen candidate received 1.5 million more votes than Petro himself won four years ago.

Brazil’s left-wing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also rose in the polls when Trump threatened sanctions and attempted to support his likely far-right rival ahead of October’s elections.

From campaigning to governing

Once in office, some leaders have discovered the difficulties of meeting expectations.

Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia faced protests that triggered widespread shortages. Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa initially reduced the homicide rate, but it has since returned to record highs.

José Antonio Kast’s popularity in Chile plummeted during his first 100 days in office.

Colombian analysts are now asking whether De la Espriella will suffer a similar fate.

He ran “a black-and-white campaign, sharpening differences, whereas governing takes place in shades of grey”, said researcher Juan Álvarez of the Caro y Cuervo Institute.

What his government will look like in practice remains uncertain.

“We still don’t know,” he added.