Business leaders optimistic for growth despite global challenges

More than half of the chief financial officers of New Zealand's leading companies expect to see growth over the next year, despite continuing challenges.

Key findings from the third annual Hunter Campbell Mood of the CFO Survey show continued confidence from finance leaders for company performance over the next year, with 57 percent of New Zealand businesses either meeting or beating revenue targets over the past 12 months.

Hunter Campbell managing partner Lee Marshall said that was encouraging.

"At the same time, the view of the world outside of New Zealand has darkened sharply," Marshall said, adding that the proportion of CFOs expecting the global economy to contract had doubled over the past year to 45 percent from 21 percent last year.

"It tells me that actually New Zealand businesses are getting on with it."

The survey also indicates CFOs were confident in the outlook for their company's performance over the next year.

Infometrics chief executive and principal economist Brad Olsen said the proportion expecting strong growth in the year ahead had increased to 11 percent in 2026, which was stronger than responses in the last two years, although for most the outlook was going to be challenging.

"Higher costs and supply chain logistics are at the heart of concerns and pressures squeezing companies at present, but many CFOs are also keeping a close eye on the longer term, with 79 percent rating New Zealand's productivity performance as poor."

About four in five (81 percent) of CFOs said global instability was feeding directly into their operating costs, with supply chain disruption of increasing concern.

Marshall said CFOs were feeling the pressure of growing costs, such as AI, as well as the challenge of building a talent pipeline for financial roles yet to be defined by the fast-changing technology.

Three in four businesses had adopted AI, which was seen as positive by 94 percent of CFOs, yet just one in five reported AI having a "substantial structural impact on their teams".

Still, more than 40 percent planned to reduce headcount at least in part because of AI.

"But among those making changes, the dominant vision is finance supported by AI and automation, not replaced by it," he said.

Marshall said the report also included a direct look at what CFOs wanted from the next government.

"Over half intend to vote National, but regardless of the election outcome, what CFOs want from the next government is consistent: productivity reform, reduced compliance burden, and policy certainty that allows businesses to plan with confidence," he said.

Tax Traders and Taxi co-founder Nicola Taylor said CFOs were demonstrating a willingness to adapt and invest even when conditions were less than perfect.

"They are making decisions without having all the answers, balancing short-term pressures with long-term opportunities, and helping their organisations navigate a world where confidence and caution must sit side by side," she said.

Taylor said the report also raised important leadership questions.

"Businesses led by female CFOs continue to outperform their peers commercially, yet female CFOs report feeling less supported by their boards and less satisfied in their roles," she said, adding more work needed to be done to support women in leadership roles.

The report indicates just 63 percent of female CFOs felt supported by their board, compared with 70 percent of male CFOs.

"That's a fundamental issue for us," Marshall said.

"This really is a message to the governors and the board leaders of New Zealand.

"Board support is the single biggest driver of CFO satisfaction across the whole data set. It's not a soft issue, it's an issue with real business impact."

Succession a growing concern

The growth-oriented view of younger CFOs (under 44) was also highlighted in the report, although senior CFOs worried the adoption of AI would lead to knowledge gaps.

"Younger CFOs were also the heaviest adopters of AI, with 75 percent of younger CFOs identifying as personal early adopters of AI versus 59 percent of all CFOs."

Marshall said 60 percent of CFOs believed the AI-driven shift to junior roles would be detrimental to the quality of future finance leaders.

"I think we have an existing and relatively deep-rooted issue in succession planning and that's potentially going to be compounded by the AI story, because it's a foundational work that's historically built great CFOs in New Zealand," he said.

"AI is a huge talking point right throughout the survey, and when you start to look at the structural impacts that it could have on a business, especially at a time when cost pressures are very high, it becomes a really big area of concern for a lot of New Zealand's biggest businesses."