Press review: Israel-Lebanon talks reveal rift and US reassures Gulf as Iran reshapes ties

MOSCOW, June 24. /TASS/. Moscow still believes diplomatic engagement remains possible after US has moved closer to Europe's position on Ukraine following the G7 summit; Israel - Lebanon talks expose deep disagreements over Hezbollah; and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is touring Gulf states seeking to reassure Washington's Arab partners. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Vedomosti: Moscow asserts diplomacy remains possible despite US-Europe alignment

The complex interplay in relations among Russia, the United States, and European countries at a new stage in the evolution of the Ukraine conflict emerged as a central theme in talks and comments by Russian diplomats at the Primakov Readings conference, which kicked off in Moscow on June 23.

The tone was set by Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov during the conference's opening session, when he addressed the outcome of the G7 summit held in the French resort town of Evian in mid-June. The joint statement endorsed by US President Donald Trump urged increased arms deliveries to Ukraine and additional sanctions targeting Russia's fuel and energy sector. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that while Trump has moved rhetorically closer to Europe on Ukraine under pressure from allies and domestic political constraints, it is still too early to conclude that Washington has fundamentally abandoned the possibility of a diplomatic settlement with Russia.

Ushakov drew a direct comparison between an alleged consensus on the principles for resolving the conflict in Ukraine reached by Vladimir Putin and Trump following their summit in Alaska in August 2025 -- and more recent developments. "At the aforementioned G7 meeting, the Europeans did everything possible to ensure that the West once again presented a united front in favor of continuing the war to the last Ukrainian, so that Anchorage would be forgotten," Ushakov stated. According to the Kremlin, the G7 summit even resulted in a "tactical shift."

The issue was further elaborated on by Deputy Foreign Ministers Alexander Grushko and Sergey Ryabkov. Grushko offered an interim assessment of Brussels’ unwillingness to begin engaging in dialogue with Russia. At the same time, his remarks suggested that Moscow remains prepared for such contacts, albeit subject to what appear to be certain conditions.

The G7 summit in Evian showed a fairly high degree of allied solidarity within NATO, Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Fyodor Voitolovsky told Vedomosti. At least rhetorically, Trump expressed readiness to bring the US position closer to that of Europe, which is, of course, disappointing from Moscow's perspective. However, Voitolovsky stressed that this development was hardly unexpected. Trump needs to show European allies that he is capable of taking a tough stance toward Russia, while also securing greater European support on Iran in return. "In reality, words are one thing, diplomatic practice is another. We will have to watch very carefully what happens next," the expert said.

In addition, Voitolovsky argued that Washington still contains many representatives of the so-called deep state who would prefer not to see the Ukraine conflict resolved through diplomatic means.

The Anchorage summit was important, but because of pressure from European allies and domestic political challenges in the United States, Trump ultimately proved unable to implement the understandings reached there, senior research fellow at MGIMO University's Institute for International Studies Vladimir Pavlov explained. The expert believes that it is still too early to talk about a complete shift in Trump's position.

Izvestia: Israel is not pursuing long-term truce with Hezbollah as Lebanon talks expose deep divisions

Disagreements over Hezbollah's status remain the main obstacle to a ceasefire in Lebanon. Three-day consultations mediated by the United States that have started in Washington have so far highlighted a deep divide: Beirut is insisting on the withdrawal of Israeli troops, while West Jerusalem is demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah and the authorization to conduct operations in southern Lebanon. At the same time, the temporary memorandum between the United States and Iran provides for a halt in hostilities along Lebanon's borders, Izvestia writes.

The parties to the consultations are discussing de-escalation, but their positions remain far apart. Beirut is demanding the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has stated that he will accept nothing less than an end to what he described as the "Israeli occupation" of the country's south. Israel, for its part, insists on Hezbollah's disarmament and seeks to preserve the right to act against security risks on Lebanese territory.

Such negotiations lack a clearly attainable objective, political analyst Alexander Kargin told Izvestia. At the same time, the process is being driven by US President Donald Trump. "In general, Israel maintains that it is not at war with Lebanon, but with Hezbollah. The Lebanese government itself also has grievances against Hezbollah. Therefore, negotiations specifically between Israel and Lebanon are not entirely meaningful," Kargin noted.

Israel does indeed distinguish between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah. At the same time, Hezbollah remains an independent force that Beirut is simply incapable of controlling. Full normalization on Israel's terms is impossible without fully resolving this issue, Grigory Lukyanov, a research fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, agrees. He believes that West Jerusalem is interested in a truce with Lebanon, but not in a truce with Hezbollah.

"Until the Lebanese state independently - either in cooperation with Arab countries or with the United States - resolves the Hezbollah issue in the way it is understood by Israel's military and political leadership, there will be no peace on terms acceptable to Lebanon from Israel's point of view," the expert stressed.

Iran is linking the Lebanese issue to a potential agreement with the United States, thereby effectively defending Hezbollah, which largely serves as one of Tehran's instruments, Kargin argues. If no agreement on Lebanon can be reached, then a deal between the United States and Iran will also collapse.

Vedomosti: US seeks to reassure Gulf monarchies as Iran conflict reshapes regional ties

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is embarking on a two-day tour of Middle Eastern countries on June 23, his first trip to the region since hostilities in the Middle East were paused. According to the State Department, Rubio plans to discuss the details of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum with officials from the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations and arrangements to ensure the unrestricted passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition to bilateral meetings, Rubio also intends to meet with officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which, in addition to the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Rubio's Gulf tour is aimed at restoring Arab confidence in Washington through strengthened defense and economic cooperation.

During the talks, Rubio is likely to offer Washington's Arab allies expanded cooperation in the defense industry, Alexey Yurk, research fellow at the Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations, suggested. The United States and Saudi Arabia are planning to launch production of drones similar to Iran's Shahed UAVs, while also discussing the joint production of air defense munitions, including both missiles and interceptor drones based on the US-Ukrainian Merops design or analogous systems, the expert added.

In addition, Yurk continued, Rubio will seek to restore the Gulf monarchies' confidence in Washington. This task is particularly important against the backdrop of their efforts to diversify foreign ties, a trend that, according to the American studies expert, is likely to intensify amid the postwar regional reconfiguration.

According to the expert, the foreign policy of the current White House is driven primarily by economic objectives. Washington undoubtedly expects investments from Arab states in order to bind their countries more closely to the United States in the spheres of economics, trade, and technology.

The US-Iran war in the Persian Gulf has altered the tone of relations between Arab oil-producing countries and Washington, Boris Dolgov, leading research fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, noted. According to him, this shift occurred after US military infrastructure transformed during the conflict from a factor deterring Tehran and guaranteeing security into a source of risk.

Izvestia: Pakistan's objections keep Afghanistan in limbo within SCO, complicating regional security

Afghanistan is unable to fully participate in the work of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) because of objections from one of the organization's members, Russian Presidential Special Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov told Izvestia.

Experts believe that, given the ongoing conflict with Pakistan, the country in question is most likely Islamabad. Additional complications stem from the SCO's own institutional structure, as confusion still persists within the organization regarding the various categories of participants. In particular, the statuses of observers and dialogue partners have yet to be harmonized. As a result, Kabul remains in a state of uncertainty. This diplomatic deadlock is also complicating efforts to normalize relations with Pakistan, in whose recent clashes with Afghanistan nearly 1,000 people were killed. Russia is also seeking to help stabilize the situation: representatives of the Taliban movement will take part in meetings of the Moscow Format on Afghanistan later this year, Kabulov added.

"Of course, they would like to become full-fledged participants. Formally, they already are, but because of objections from one SCO member, where all decisions are taken by consensus, this process has not yet been initiated," Kabulov told Izvestia. "All other SCO members, in one way or another, maintain contacts and cooperate with the Afghans. I am confident that this will happen in due course," he added.

Kabulov declined to name specific countries, but it is evident that Pakistan is currently Afghanistan's principal opponent within the "Shanghai Ten." Informed sources suggested that Islamabad may indeed be blocking closer interaction between Afghanistan and the SCO.

"Pakistan is unlikely to support Afghanistan within the SCO. And the reason goes beyond border clashes; the key security issues remain unresolved. Moreover, according to Pakistan's official position, this is primarily the fault of the Afghan side," Gleb Makarevich, research fellow at the Center for the Indo-Pacific Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told Izvestia.

There have been attempts to resolve the conflict, the latest of which originated in China's Xinjiang region. Consultations mediated by Beijing were held there in April. For now, however, it more closely resembles talks about talks, as the parties essentially only reaffirmed the need for a diplomatic settlement and a rejection of further escalation. The process is still far from completion, Natalya Zamaraeva, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, told Izvestia.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Falling oil prices may reduce Russia's budget revenues despite potential support from weaker ruble

The ceasefire and negotiations between the United States and Iran have pushed oil prices down by more than 20% since the beginning of June. The decline may continue, which will inevitably affect oil and gas tax revenues flowing into Russia's federal budget, as these revenues directly depend on both oil production volumes and the dollar-denominated export price of crude, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.

Prices for Brent crude oil have fallen below $80 per barrel. Russian crude prices have also eased, since Russian oil is sold at a discount to Brent. Up to 90% of Russia's oil and gas revenues are generated by oil production.

A weaker ruble could have a positive effect on oil and gas revenues because taxes are calculated based on the dollar price of a barrel. Analyst at Finam Financial Group Nikolay Dudchenko told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that some weakening of the ruble is already being observed. Since the beginning of June, the dollar exchange rate has risen by more than 5%. Meanwhile, de-escalation in the Middle East is giving the Bank of Russia greater room for maneuver in conducting monetary policy.

According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government, a drop in Brent prices below $80 per barrel combined with a widening discount on Urals crude could lead to further depreciation of the ruble. First, export revenues of major oil companies would begin to decline. Most likely, reduced foreign currency inflows into the country would affect Russia's exchange market by the end of the summer. Second, if the price of Urals crude falls to the budget benchmark of $59 per barrel or lower, the Finance Ministry would stop selling yuan from the National Wealth Fund to support the ruble and would instead resume purchases, thereby depriving the Russian currency of an important stabilizing factor.

An increase in oil production could also help sustain budget oil and gas revenues, particularly given that Russia currently remains significantly below its production quota under the OPEC+ agreement. In May, Russia produced 9 mln barrels per day against a quota of 9.7 mln barrels per day. According to OPEC estimates, Russia's oil production potential this year amounts to an additional 400,000-450,000 barrels per day. By contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that Russian oil output will not increase, but rather decline by 180,000-200,000 barrels per day.

Andrianov added that production growth is being constrained by logistical limitations affecting exports and by reduced demand from domestic refining. Therefore, much will depend, first, on whether further attacks on Russia's export infrastructure can be prevented and, second, on whether sufficient tanker capacity can be secured to transport Russian crude amid tightening sanctions.

As for the discount on Russian oil, experts believe that the possible return of US sanctions, along with the normalization of the situation in the Middle East, will contribute to its further widening. According to Daniil Tyunya, CEO of DA-Consulting, the discount could expand by an additional $2-4 per barrel.

TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews