Could Colombia’s political shift reshape Mercosur?

In April 2026, the first left-wing president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, declared that his country would apply for full membership of the Mercosur trade community.

In the presidential election of June 21, Abelardo de la Espriella, a millionaire lawyer/businessman, defeated Gustavo Petro-backed candidate (Iván Cepeda) by the narrow margin of less than 1%. He is of the right wing and was endorsed by Donald Trump in an ongoing campaign which has been successful in enabling candidates of the right to change the geopolitical map of Latin America.

Although Espriella may continue associate membership for the time being, this will only be to moderate the policies of Mercosur to which the USA has expressed opposition. Indeed, it can be seen as part of a concerted movement to reduce the hegemony of Brazil in a socialist Latin America by overthrowing the government of President Lula at the forthcoming October elections.

Such a dramatic political shift will be much more effective in altering the global influence of Brazil in BRICS of which it was a founder member. Colombia has not integrated with the bloc although it joined the BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) in June 2025. Its resignation will almost certainly be demanded by the USA which engineered the recent victories of the right in Chile and Honduras and has a commanding lead in Peru as well as being the captor of Venezuela’s president.

There is no lack of money to finance the army of influencers working for the US, which has the aid of American cyber-oligarchs to generate the misinformation which is used to capture “floating votes”.

Immediate casualties would be the South Atlantic Cable System (SACS), which links Brazil directly to South Africa and Angola, and the much larger Pacific system, which is intended to connect China, India, Saudi Arabia and many other Asian States to Latin America thus completing the bypass of the USA.

The good relationship of the EU to Mercosur in the promotion of independent trade and social benefits for the benefit of a large section of global populace may well be imperilled by the growing might of the right.

Certainly, Portugal, with its historic ties to Brazil, has good cause to ponder its position in an increasingly fragmented world order.

Roberto Cavaleiro

Roberto Cavaleiro has been resident in Portugal since 1989 and possesses dual Portuguese/British nationality. Now in his 10th decade, he devotes much of his senility to the composition of essays, poems and commentaries on a diversity of Portuguese subjects.