Crunching the numbers: How the All Whites can still progress in the FIFA World Cup

The All Whites' World Cup fate comes down to one final group game.

Despite sitting bottom of Group G with one point from two matches, New Zealand still has a path to the knockout stages for the first time in the tournament's history.

After a draw with Iran in their opening game, followed by a loss to Egypt in their second match the All Whites are at the bottom of one of the closest groups in the expanded 48-team tournament.

All Whites coach Darren Bazeley knows his team must beat Belgium in Vancouver if they have any chance of getting into the new round of 32, but it is not quite that straight forward.

Adding to suspense is that both of the remaining games in the group - All Whites v Belgium and Iran v Egypt - kick off at the same time at 3pm Saturday.

The standings

Before kick off in Group G's final games, Egypt are top of the group on four points, as the only team to have won a game in this group.

Iran and Belgium both have two points, courtesy of two draws each.

New Zealand has one point.

Why third place still matters

The expanded World Cup format has created an extra path into the knockout rounds.

The top two teams in each of the tournament's 12 groups advance automatically to the round of 32. They are joined by the eight best third-placed teams across the competition.

It is only the second time in World Cup history that third-placed teams have been given a route into the knockout stages, the previous occasion being at the 1994 tournament in the United States.

The best third-placed teams are ranked first by points, then goal difference, goals scored and disciplinary record. If teams still cannot be separated, FIFA uses world ranking as the final tiebreaker.

That means the All Whites could still qualify if they finish third in Group G, although they would likely need favourable results elsewhere.

What result do the All Whites need?

A win is the only realistic option.

Victory over world No 10 Belgium would lift New Zealand to four points and keep their World Cup dream alive.

If Egypt beat or draw with Iran, the All Whites would finish second in the group and automatically qualify for the round of 32.

The complications begin if New Zealand and Iran both win.

In that scenario, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand would all finish on four points. The All Whites would be third in the group and their fate would depend on how they compare with third-placed teams from the tournament's other 11 groups.

What if they draw?

A draw would almost certainly end New Zealand's campaign.

The only theoretical path would require Iran to suffer a heavy defeat to Egypt, the All Whites to be involved in a high-scoring draw, and a host of other results across the tournament to fall perfectly into place.

What if they lose?

There is no scenario in which the All Whites advance with a defeat.

A loss to Belgium guarantees elimination.

How do tiebreakers work?

The expanded 48-team World Cup sends the top two teams from each group directly to the round of 32, with the eight best third-placed teams also progressing.

If teams finish level on points, FIFA's tiebreakers are:

Goal difference

Goals scored

Disciplinary record

World ranking

At present, New Zealand have scored three goals and conceded five, giving them a goal difference of minus two.

Their disciplinary record is also relatively clean. The All Whites picked up no cards against Iran and two yellow cards against Egypt, leaving them on a conduct score of minus two.

The final tiebreaker is world ranking. Unfortunately for New Zealand, that is one category where they have little hope. As the lowest-ranked nation at the tournament, the All Whites would lose any qualification race decided by ranking.

The bottom line

The All Whites need to beat Belgium.

Do that, and they will either qualify automatically for the knockout stages or remain in contention as one of the tournament's best third-placed teams.

If they draw, then New Zealand need to get very, very lucky to advance.