Emergency doctors warn of worsening hospital crisis with the winter flu season yet to peak

Emergency doctors are warning of a rapidly worsening hospital crisis, with the winter flu season yet to reach its peak and hospitals already struggling to cope.

The Australasian College for Emergency Medicine said many New Zealand hospitals were operating at or above 100 percent capacity, leaving little room to absorb the yearly surge in respiratory illnesses expected over the coming weeks.

Its president, emergency physician Dr Peter Allely, said overcrowding in emergency departments was the worst frontline staff had ever seen.

"What we're seeing is that our emergency departments are more overcrowded than they've ever been," Allely said.

He warned that patients were already facing lengthy delays, with some spending hours waiting to be seen in gridlocked emergency departments.

"Every emergency doctor that you speak to across the country will have some particularly sad stories from people who have prolonged lengths of stay sitting in plastic chairs in waiting rooms for 12 hours before they're even seen," he said.

"It's not what a wealthy, developed nation should be doing."

He warned that patients could die as a result.

"We've got clear scientific evidence that people experience worse outcomes whenever health systems are overcrowded," he said.

"Whenever you've got a hospital that's 10 percent bed blocked, we know that the mortality rate goes up by about 10 percent as well."

Bed blocking occurs when patients who need admission remain stuck in emergency departments waiting for a ward bed, preventing new arrivals from being assessed and treated.

Allely said the flow-on effect was doctors being forced to care for patients in corridors, waiting rooms and other unsuitable spaces while ambulances waited outside hospitals unable to offload patients

Official data showed respiratory illness activity had been steadily increasing.

Weekly Healthline calls for respiratory infections had been trending upwards since May and were similar to the average rates recorded between 2015 and 2019, as well as levels seen at the same time last year.

Hospitalisation rates were also increasing, although public health monitoring still classified overall respiratory illness activity as low and comparable to 2025 levels.

Data from PHF Science showed four respiratory illness outbreaks were reported in the week ending 14 June, including two in rest homes and two in early childhood education centres.

Despite current activity remaining relatively moderate, Allely warned the most challenging period for hospitals was likely still ahead.

"Usually it's sometime in August or September when we see the peak," he said.

"Because we've got a system that has almost zero surge capacity, that's going to lead to people waiting longer in emergency departments, waiting longer to get off ambulances and probably waiting longer to be seen in the community as well."

Health New Zealand said winter was always a busy period for health services and planning for this year's season had been underway since March.

Executive regional director central Chris Lowry said preparations included additional staff, extra bed capacity and increased community-based care aimed at reducing pressure on hospitals.

"Flu is already having an impact in New Zealand, with July typically the peak of the flu season," Lowry said.

"We encourage those with non-urgent concerns to consider other options for access to acute care, including Healthline, local GPs, healthcare providers and community pharmacies."

Health New Zealand said emergency departments remained open 24 hours a day and anyone needing urgent care should attend ED or call 111 without delay.