Beef prices set to stay high, but when will consumers say no more?

Rabobank takes a look at the health of the beef market each quarter and in its latest analysis, it's forecasting beef prices to remain firm through until the end of the year.

That's thanks to ongoing tightening in global supply, with production in the first quarter of the year down 2.5 percent on the same time last year and expected to fall 2.2 percent annually.

"What we've got is not enough beef for what demand is asking for and that is really driving higher prices globally," says Rabobank's senior proteins analyst Jen Corkran.

New Zealand's supply got off to a slow start to the year, with plentiful pasture seeing farmers holding on to stock for longer. The bank forecasts 3 to 4 percent full year production locally, but globally, apart from Australia, supply will likely remain tight.

"We (might) see that through less foot traffic food service - restaurants - and people trading down into cheaper cuts of protein, but broadly demand is still very good."

The United States continues to dominate demand for New Zealand beef with 46 percent of export volumes in the first quarter.

"About a quarter of our beef goes in with about three quarters of their fattier beef and that makes hamburgers and we know people in the US love their burgers," she says.

"They don't have enough lean beef in particular to meet demand, so we've got good resilience coming from that side and that's really helping to drive prices."

But Jen Corkran says with those prices already so high, consumers could end up reaching a price ceiling, impacting on demand.